Posted:
#1
YTD 3-3(+1.22)
Panthers +3.5(-108) *1.08/1.00
Thoughts later in the week 
Week 4 Plays
Posted:
#5
Rams -3(-105) *2.00/1.90
Tough decision here, as this is in fact a "sharp" spot, or at least I think it will be, to bet on the Eagles as a home dog. Off that embarrassing loss to the Bears on prime time.
Although I can point out several areas here to bet on the Rams.
They have had a terrible start(record wise), on a tough road so far. Starting the year in Australia, not going early enough supposedly, vs Shanahan who leads Mcvay head to head. And the Niners are the cream of the crop in the nfl currently.
Week 2 they took care of business at home vs the Giants. In a game where Jackson Dart went down.
Week 3 was another tough game in elevation at mile high. Such a let down after going up 16-0 at halftime to only let that one slip away. Losing 26-30, where a 66 yard interception went the other way for 6 by Hufanga. I can't not put blame for Stafford for the throw, it happened. But we can't expect plays like that being a regular thing for a qb like Stafford.
If you look at the boxscore, you'll notice something is crooked. The Rams had 26 first downs vs 20 of the Broncos. 482 yards vs 257. 34:29 t.o.p. vs 25:39.
The game changing stats you'll find in this game is the Rams 2 turnovers(1 of which went for 6) vs the Broncos 1, and 13 Rams penalties vs the Broncos 5.
The Rams are the only team with a 1-2 record in the top 10 in dvoa. Sitting at #10. They are #9 on offense, and #4 on defense. With a LUCK rating of -0.8(#28). Things like luck are impossible to predict, but the most likely to flip at any given game.
The Eagles are #22 overall in dvoa. That's 2 spots less than the Giants, and 1 spot behind the Buccaneers. Put that in perspective.
One of the main concerns I see for Philly is on the o line. I didn't bet the Birds or the Bears on MNF, but leaned towards Philly. That o line made the Bears defensive front look like the 1970 Steelers. When guys names like Grady Jarret and Dayo Odeyingbo kept coming up, you may have a problem.
In particular, Cam Jurgens is having a terrible time adjusting to guard. He's had 2 games now and has not gotten comfortable. He has scored a 48.9 rating per pff.
The loss of Landen Dickerson has seemed to have a waterfall effect. The Eagles have started a rookie at center in this time period. 24 year old rookie Drew Kendall has scored a 47.4 rating per pff.
If Poona Ford at nose, and Aaron Donald at the 3 technique don't have success here, I'd be shocked.
Jalen Hurts does not process coverage quickly.
Nor do I think offensive coordinator Sean Mannion is very creative, or experienced for that matter. Making matters more difficult for Hurts. Where are the quick hitters in the wr's route tree? What happened to the rpo in Philly?
Jalen Hurts is on his what, 6th OC in 6 years? He's had 4 in college as well...
Lastly, trying not to get long winded here, I love the fact that Ben Johnson just put on a coaching clinic. There are very few offensive minds in the nfl that are considered genius, and Ben Johnson has the league on notice. Guys like Sean Mcvay, Kyle Shanahan, and Andy Reid are considered genius in my opinion. And guys like that will absolutely steal or copycat plays, formations, and concepts.
The beat down that occurred couldn't have come at a better time when Sean Mcvay reviews tape and comes to Philly this Sunday. And he'll have Matthew Stafford under center, not Case Keenum.
Good Luck
Posted:
#8
Lions@Panthers:
The Lions aren't a team that travels much to the east coast.
In the Dan Campbell era, the Lions are 4-5 su on the east coast.
PS=23.55, PA=25.55
As favs on the east coast they are 1-1 su & ats. The one win was vs the Marcus Marriota led Commanders last year, the one loss was vs the Panthers in 2022. Sam Darnold and DJ Moore were Panthers back then.
It's not an earth shattering trend, but certainly doesn't condone being a -3.5 favorite.
In the Bryce Young era, the Panthers as home under dogs are 10-15 su, and 14-10-1 ats.
The trend is stronger in more recent times under Bryce Young(we saw how bad his rookie season was). Since 2024, they are 8-8 su, and 11-6 ats as home underdogs.
Since 2025, 5-3 su, and 6-2 ats.
They do have injury concerns, especially Jaycee Horn at CB, and Mike Jackson. Not a position to be hurt at when facing Goff and company. In particular Amon Ra.
It's a tough pill to swallow, but you can't always have a perfect injury situation on the side you back.
On the bright side, LB Devin Lloyd will be back. He missed the Browns game. That dude is a monster. He should help in slowing down Jamyr Gibbs, they'll need it.
The Panthers are 13th in dvoa, and the Lions are 14th.
The Panthers are 1-2 in a division where no one has more than 1 win. And next week they have nothing to look forward to besides a bye week. On prime time TV this week, they are set up for nothing but a full out effort.
The Lions are 2-1, could easily be 1-2 as the OT game vs the Saints was a nail biter. Then had to play the Bills otr on a short week, a terrible spot. On extended rest they beat the Jets at home by 7. Although the boxscore shows a pretty even game from yards, t.o.p. and first downs. The Jets lost 1 fumble, the Lions did not turn over the ball.
Good Luck 
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