Vegasbuster Week 5 NFL: 7-1-1 YTD

Like my CFB model, I had to wait until I had enough 2026 data to start populating the model.

Week 4: 7-1-1 

The lone loss was Hockenson taking a knee at the 1 inside the 2 min warning. They could kill the clock and end it 15-10. If it had been on the other side of the 2 minute mark? He probably takes it in.

NFL Week 5:

Jacksonville -6.5

Minnesota -2

Cincinnati -6.5

Chicago -1.5

San Francisco +3.5

Detroit -4

Baltimore +4

NY Giants +4.5

Like my CFB post, I posted Tampa +8.5 elsewhere so it will not count in the win total this week.

Love me some SF and Chicago. Aldo I can’t see Philly keeping it close but that line is high 

@WilliamMunny

My Jax bet had included both Barkley & Smith in the model.

It still is a tough play. Those overseas games are always a crap shoot but the model spit out Jacksonville.

@Vegasbuster

Any insight on the Browns/Jets, and Bills/Rams on MNF?

BOL 

@CanadaCup

The model leans are the NYJets -2.5 and Buffalo +2.5.

No plays on either, though. 

@Vegasbuster

 What does your model say about Denver/Chargers?

@SharpSharks

 A complete pass on it. No lean either way.

So, with the Baltimore pending.. (checks notes) that's 6-2 right now this week.

 I can show my Tampa pick elsewhere so I'm counting that shit.

13-3-1

81.3%

People pay big money for that level of winning and I can take Venmo donations. 

@Vegasbuster

 What is your play for the late game

@Crazytray0054

 
Baltimore +4 as posted in the opening post.

Nice I tailed but didn't like Chicago to much Ditka hype. keep it up. I bought points so I'm on Baltimore+7.5. Fishy spread but Atlanta did look good their last game. Wish you continued success.

Good stuff 

Nice work 

Nice W to close out the week last night.

Week 4: 7-1-1

Week 5: 7-2

YTD: 14-3-1

No official model play tonight but it showed a lean on Buffalo. The line is now +3.5 to +4 so I'll check it out to see if the change moves it up or leaves it as-is.

@Vegasbuster

Reviewed the MNF play and it still lists Buffalo as a Tier 3 play at +3.5 to +4.

Tiers 1 & 2 were the plays listed in the opening post.

However, there were five total Tier 3 plays, which includes Buffalo, and the other four Tier 3 plays finished 4-0: Pittsburgh -3, NY Jets -2.5, Houston -7 and New England -3.

I will only post Tier 1 & 2 plays, but if you include them all this week, the model was 11-2 with the Buffalo Tier 3 play remaining.

@Vegasbuster