Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
No, you are wrong.
Then tell me why all the offshores who take 1000 times more action than casinos in Vegas move their lines a hundred times back and forth on Sundays especially the closer you get to kickoff?! Why would they do that if they take a side? You cannot give me any reasons for that.
Here are a couple examples from this week.
1) The Vikes opened at -6.5 favs over the Giants at Pinnacle. The public had in mind that the Giants almost beat the unbeaten Panthers so the Giants got bet down to +6 and +5 due to early public money. As the week went on, the Vikes line got more action that's why it moved up to -6 and -6.5 where i stayed the whole Sunday. Prior to kickoff with all the people chasing on the favorite, the line went up to -7.
Why the line moves when "Vegas" knows the winner would be Vikings by a large margin? According to your logic, oddsmakers would have set this line at Giants +7.5 to get uneven action on the Giants and never push it down to +7 or below 7 because they could just sit back and watch the split getting 80/20 in favor of the Giants. After late action on Vikings on Sunday the would push it to +8 or +8.5 then. But it would never settle at -7/-6.5 if they didn't take 50/50 action.
2) The Lions opened at -8 favs over the Niners. The line got bet up to Lions -10 by the so called public money (more bets with less money). On Sunday bookies took heavy action on Niners that's why they moved it back to Lions -8.5. If they knew the Lions would win by 15, why would they move the line down to get more money on the Lions?? It was because they wanted EVEN action
3) Saints opened at -3.5 and the line went to -2 on Sunday EVEN THOUGH Drew Brees was finally cleared to play. Why did the line move below the key number of 3 if "Vegas" knew it would be almost a blowout by the Saints? They moved it below 3 because they got UNEVEN action by Jaguars money and wanted EVEN action to collect their money.
I cannot wait for your response. But it's likely going to be another hocus-pocus comment without any explanations.
Wait a minute Suuma, I love ya but you are going down a rabbit hole here.
Web based betting is a new phenomenon in the gambling world.
We cannot sit here and say 5Dimes and Pinnacle rule the gambling day when it comes to talking about line movements.
What about all the casinos on the Vegas strip who do not move their lines? We can observe them and talk about them and how they react with their money and their line movements. They do not have the time, nor the freedom to move lines instantly like 5Dimes does.
Also, they don't take the betting maxes Vegas does. Their limits are far higher and that may actually warrant a line move.
If they see huge sharp money battering a line over and over, they will move it.
Now I want to say this definitively as I have before, a well-known and respected Vegas director of gaming in Bob Scucci has said time and time and time again that he will not come off certain numbers even if he has huge liability on one side. If you call him a liar than why debate further???
What were his reasons?
Something many here have said a million times:
He knows who the sharp bettors are and moves lines with sharp money. He even knows who the sharp runners are.
Also, he WANTS a certain side (yes, the clichéd sharp side if you can believe it). If he sees one side as legitimate based on sharp money and whoever else he consults with, he will stay on that side even if the money is wildly unbalanced to one side.
It is that second point that gives US the cappers not in the know what we need as a major clue to take a side where we are not 100% familiar with both sides.
I have capped a hundred Knicks games and Giants and COMPLETELY ignored consensus or cash flow on a game. IT CAN BE IGNORED if the cap is strong enough.
If it is not, and with many games it is not since we cannot specialize in all teams over all sports, we can use consensus responsibly (not just checking this site's consensus for 2 seconds but verifying it over many legitimate sources) to pick a side.
Money can move and shake offshore but that is a different animal and I can pretty much assure you on a grander scale, the online sites do not seek out 50/50 money either on certain games.
In Vegas I can definitely say without question that BOOKS DO NOT ALWAYS WANT 50/50 action just to attain a vig. That is impossible and it is impossible with the rush of money to even come close at times.
You have your examples above.
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