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Vegas had its worst week of the year last week. That's good for the right dog this week.

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Posted: #1
2015 NFL: 5-1; 17-9 in last 26.

I wanted to do a straight up pick along with the ML parlay which I don't see losing in any way/shape/form.

Many posters here, even the very good ones, don't believe in line movements, or consensus helping a capper, or the fact that there can be huge public money on one side and Vegas won't move off a number significantly to offset that and that a capper can use that info.

I respectfully tell you not to listen to them. You can pay attention to consensus information and how money moves as a shorthand to make bets. Don't believe me? Tell Bob Scucci who Director of Boyd Gaming and says these things happen every week on the Behind the Bets podcast. If I'm a liar or clueless, then so is he and good luck telling an actual line-setter in Vegas who handles the cash flow he is clueless.

Anyhow, the fact that Vegas' worst week came last week can help us this week. All the afternoon favorites cashed last week and Vegas got blasted with parlay money and teaser money setting up a monster loss.

You can be assured they won't make the same mistake two weeks in a row.

That is why the right dogs this week can be played as their numbers are inflated. Squares love favorites, plain and simple. That is why so many good cappers here consistently post dogs (albeit the right dogs as just betting dogs won't always make you money as you know).

On this basis, the pick this week is Atlanta +7.

Why?

1. Vegas had it's worst week last week. Carolina has outscored ATL an  unconscionable 75-3 in their past two meetings. Yet they are only getting 7 here. Well folks, 7 is a lot. The previous game in Carolina closed at 8.5. Now a mere two weeks later the line is 7? And ATL still has something to play for in that they haven't officially been eliminated?

There is a 6 pt. adjustment for home to home so at best this is a 2/3 pt line and at worst this is a 4/5/6 pt line.

Yet we get 7. Lots of line value there especially given that ATL has that loss fresh in their heads and will make something in the way of adjustments to make this game closer.

2. The old cliché: This is ATL's Super Bowl.

And it is. Not only can ATL still make the playoffs (although it is a microscopic chance) they have a chance to ruin their division rivals perfect season.

That's a TON of motivation, even though ATL has many, many flaws which I need not document here. It has been a rough season for ATL to say the least.

But folks, you can't play much worst than the 38-0 loss they had against CAR last time out. So the score will be closer and there is a change from home to road.

Amazingly, Carolina couldn't cover with a 35-7 lead last week on the road.

They couldn't cover against the Saints before that on the road.

They covered against Dallas on Thansgiving but remember, Carolina was being disrespected in that spot opening as 1 point DOGS even with a perfect record. Lots of motivation for a statement game there and they delivered in a big way on national TV and knocked Romo out in the process. Luckily this is a game with little attention (outside of the perfect record chase) at 1 pm in ATL. No Monday night or Sunday night lights to ramp up the play.

Also, the latest 16 minutes of Carolina football have been the worst football they have played all year and it may be, minus the FG to win it, the worst quarter 15 minutes of football any team has played all year. 28 points in 15 minutes against an NFL team. Not Tulsa....an NFL team. To me, the Panthers looked completely mortal against a bad Giants team that couldn't stop scoring against a top ranked D.

Will that carry over this week? I don't know. I do know we get tons of line value and this is Carolina's third road game in 4 weeks, ramping up the travel/fatigue factor (always a good reason to back a home dog). 

3. Finally, some of the local ATL media said the Falcons quit against Carolina. That is always a reason to come out strong with players who put personal pride highest among all their virtues (vices?).

And better, they get redemption only two weeks later.

4. And even better yet, as mentioned previously, the Falcons have not been eliminated from the playoffs.

Here is how they get in:

Seattle loses twice
Vikings lose twice
Other things that I don't need to get into

This is a 1 pm  EST game. Seattle plays at 4 pm and the Vikes play at 8 pm.

So even though the Falcons know deep down they won't make the playoffs they still have a very very small shot and only need look at the field, not up at the scoreboard too as those other games are later.

You can wait for a better line if you don't like the juice but 7 is too strong a number to pass up in this spot. This number is juiced -115 to -130 on various sites.

The pick:

Atlanta+7 (juiced) over Carolina
 
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Posted: #2
too many assumptions man, i don't know 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Mancity:

too many assumptions man, i don't know 

You can call them assumptions.

I call them a basis for a play.

If you look at the raw stats for CAR vs. ATL you will only come out with a play on CAR (heavy) every time. You have to have a reason to look beyond that. I found some for myself.
 
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Posted: #4
BOL Buddy. Hope you've had a great holiday! 

 
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Quote Originally Posted by Nilshu:

BOL Buddy. Hope you've had a great holiday! 

 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


You can call them assumptions.

I call them a basis for a play.

If you look at the raw stats for CAR vs. ATL you will only come out with a play on CAR (heavy) every time. You have to have a reason to look beyond that. I found some for myself.
good luck 
 
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Posted: #7
Wow. I went through the entire card tomorrow looking for dogs, thinking the exact same thing you did...the two I came up with were Atlanta and Tennessee...I love both
 
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Posted: #8
Normally i like taking the dog on tv games and maybe they take cam out early and you win your bet.Problem is bettors love betting against undefeated teams and the books know this.These Panthers are hungry and feel disrespected because of the division they play in.
There is no 100% cappers in the world
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by Mancity:

good luck 

 

Very obvious point: This is a division game and these opponents know each other. Although that hasn't mattered the past 2 games, those two games were in Carolina. A small FYI would be to say ATL beat CAR in ATL 19-17 the first time they played last year so home field to Carolina does matter as they have obliterated teams mostly at home.
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by KingScorpio:

Normally i like taking the dog on tv games and maybe they take cam out early and you win your bet.Problem is bettors love betting against undefeated teams and the books know this.These Panthers are hungry and feel disrespected because of the division they play in.

I think we can leave the "Carolina feels disrespected" angle in the closet for this one.

They are a 7 point favorite on the road. Should they feel like they should be 10 if they even pay attention to such a thing?

The fact they were dogs on Thanksgiving...now that's a disrespect angle you could play...but not here.

The best thing that can happen to the Panthers is to get a loss. The pressure to perform with a perfect record is unreal and the Pats could not do it in the end. This perfect season will hang over their head like an anvil if they go into the playoffs with it.

That doesn't mean they don't want to be perfect. It simply means that a loss wouldn't be a bad thing for them at this point. 15-1 and week 16 as a tune up heading into the playoffs would actually benefit them. Whether they play that way is to be seen. Not that they would dump the game though...But if the Falcons somehow got out to a big lead it wouldn't be a bad thing for Rivera to give his players some sideline time (as Cam got blasted several times with big hits last week).
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by NoCashMcgraff:

Wow. I went through the entire card tomorrow looking for dogs, thinking the exact same thing you did...the two I came up with were Atlanta and Tennessee...I love both

I'm off the Mettenberger train.

That Titans team just doesn't seem to respond to him and he has played in very underwhelming fashion with a his career (as a starter) on the line.
 
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Posted: #12
GL, Scal.  You're golden if KingScorpio is against you.  
 
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Posted: #13
Great analysis OP- definitely like your thought process on this one. Plus, I have a feeling CAR could be resting/limiting playing time for players as well...? Hope to see .5 line movement before kick off but +7 does look good. Although, I think there are greater games on the board for tomorrow so definitely would not be my top play tomorrow (That would to SF +10)
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:

GL, Scal.  You're golden if KingScorpio is against you.  

LOVE hearing that!

Steve - GL with SF. I'd love to see you hit that as that is yet another big dog Vegas has to take against public consensus in a week where they are looking to make back a lot of the money they lost last week.
 
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Posted: #15
Scalabrine, i posted about an hour ago, that i love Falcons, same basic reasons, although your thread is detailed and complete. Best of luck. Carolina has cost me this season, kept fading them since Dallas turkey day romp, and inconveniently did not play Saints nor Giants. Just seem to.play against them when they smash teams. I like Falcons, Lions, Jets, over 47.5 atl/ carolina
 
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Posted: #16
On them as well. 

I cant imagine how many teasers have CAR has a PK or on a M/L Parlay right now..
 
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Posted: #17
Great stuff Scal, you don't hit 100% but none of us do. I think you're on to it here. A loss here let's them rest  or limit their starters in the last game and the bye week. Winner the Super Bowl has to be bigger than the undefeated season I would think.
This will be Atlanta's Super Bowl, as they probably won't see the playoffs but still have that small chance as a bonus.

I think much of these same arguments can be said about the Jets as well. They are only getting three though. However, in 6/7 games the Jets have lost by 3 or less to the Pats. We saw the Chargers had something to say to the Raiders the other night, when it came time for beating the same division foe twice in the same year. It's very difficult to do.

I'm seeing +7 -120 at Bookmaker on the Falcons, and +3 -120 on the Jets. Man is it hard to pull the trigger against the Pats or Panthers but think those are the plays. If both of those Favs cover Vegas may need to take a week off.

Keep up the good work and thanks for posting. Lastly, found this nugget online:

Here we have a Jets team that is desperately fighting for their playoff lives lining up against a Patriots club that has a first round bye already in their pockets. Home game for the Jets against a Patriots team that has been battling key injuries. Nothing about the way this thing sets up inspires me to take the Patriots guys. Particularly when I see every square and their crooked cousin rushing to get down action on them. Stubborn fact is the Patriots have now failed to cover the number in their last five battles with the Jets, and the stakes were higher for them then than now. I know a ton of people love the idea of betting a 12-2 team here laying only a field goal, looks like easy money. Well, in this crazy year of NFL wagering perhaps it will indeed play out that way. But I cannot help but be skeptical when I see so may squares lining up in droves proclaiming lock. Just witnessed too many times where that has blown up in their faces. I prefer to be on the books side more often than not. Frankly guys there are trends here I could post but in reality there are trends to support either cause so it would be a smokescreen to just point out one side. Suffice it to say there are no relevant trends I see to really close any deal. I do put some stock in the fact, as I mentioned, that the Jets have covered of late against the Patriots. Motivation is a key element anytime attempting to gauge what a team will do on any given Sunday, I cannot help but feel the edge there lies with the hosts. Come playoff time I would have a terrible time taking the Jets here because the Patriots will be in full killer mode then, I say not this Sunday. I think we have a very live home dog here. I am willing to go Triple Star here on Fitzpatrick and company to get it done for us.


 
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Posted: #18
By your logic, since I've also heard other line setters say the opposite. That they cannot be wrong. 

Cap the game. The other bull s**t is useless, and for losers. Period. 

It's the LOSERS, you hear crying about fixes. It's the LOSERS you hear talking about where money is going. It's the LOSERS you hear talking about how they're betting on the "sharp" side.




 
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On second thought, The Falcons will be a no play for me. They lost 6 straight before barely beating a team with 2 wins in Jacksonville. I think anything can happen and definitely won't be playing the Panthers but if Atlanta had any heart left in them, they'd of won one other game in that 6 game patch. Think I like the Jets who are 4-1 in their last 5 just getting the 3. Good luck all.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by richig761:

By your logic, since I've also heard other line setters say the opposite. That they cannot be wrong. 

Cap the game. The other bull s**t is useless, and for losers. Period. 

It's the LOSERS, you hear crying about fixes. It's the LOSERS you hear talking about where money is going. It's the LOSERS you hear talking about how they're betting on the "sharp" side.





I'll get to the other posts above soon but I was waiting for a post like this.


Yes....the losers care about that stuff. Even though everything I said goes on, in full view of all cappers, and even though it has been verified time and time again by bookmakers, even one I quoted directly in the OP, guys like you just sit back and deny it exists.

Why? Because no one and nothing is going to make you change your pick Buster!!! 

Anyhow, I have capped hundreds of games ignoring consensus when I know the team inside and out (Knicks Rutgers Giants). The point of the thread is that IT CAN be used as a shorthand betting strategy to make a selection with a team I do not know inside and out like ATL and I did so here.

Let's see who the LOSER is at 4:30 pm EST shall we?
 
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Quote Originally Posted by jrgumpert:

On second thought, The Falcons will be a no play for me. They lost 6 straight before barely beating a team with 2 wins in Jacksonville. I think anything can happen and definitely won't be playing the Panthers but if Atlanta had any heart left in them, they'd of won one other game in that 6 game patch. Think I like the Jets who are 4-1 in their last 5 just getting the 3. Good luck all.

 3 is a push line against a team that has beat them 9 of ten in the regular season (and the one win was the infamous penalty that hadn't been called in a century that gave the Jets another winning FG try). I did tease the Jets up to 10 for what it's worth. It can hit. I'm just liking 7 more than 3, even if it is ATL.
 
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Posted: #22
Zander
Worth
 
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[Quote: Originally Posted by scalabrine]
2015 NFL: 5-1; 17-9 in last 26.

I wanted to do a straight up pick along with the ML parlay which I don't see losing in any way/shape/form.

Many posters here, even the very good ones, don't believe in line movements, or consensus helping a capper, or the fact that there can be huge public money on one side and Vegas won't move off a number significantly to offset that and that a capper can use that info.

I respectfully tell you not to listen to them. You can pay attention to consensus information and how money moves as a shorthand to make bets. Don't believe me? Tell Bob Scucci who Director of Boyd Gaming and says these things happen every week on the Behind the Bets podcast. If I'm a liar or clueless, then so is he and good luck telling an actual line-setter in Vegas who handles the cash flow he is clueless.

Anyhow, the fact that Vegas' worst week came last week can help us this week. All the afternoon favorites cashed last week and Vegas got blasted with parlay money and teaser money setting up a monster loss.

You can be assured they won't make the same mistake two weeks in a row.

That is why the right dogs this week can be played as their numbers are inflated. Squares love favorites, plain and simple. That is why so many good cappers here consistently post dogs (albeit the right dogs as just betting dogs won't always make you money as you know).

On this basis, the pick this week is Atlanta +7.

Why?

1. Vegas had it's worst week last week. Carolina has outscored ATL an  unconscionable 75-3 in their past two meetings. Yet they are only getting 7 here. Well folks, 7 is a lot. The previous game in Carolina closed at 8.5. Now a mere two weeks later the line is 7? And ATL still has something to play for in that they haven't officially been eliminated?

There is a 6 pt. adjustment for home to home so at best this is a 2/3 pt line and at worst this is a 4/5/6 pt line.

Yet we get 7. Lots of line value there especially given that ATL has that loss fresh in their heads and will make something in the way of adjustments to make this game closer.

2. The old cliché: This is ATL's Super Bowl.

And it is. Not only can ATL still make the playoffs (although it is a microscopic chance) they have a chance to ruin their division rivals perfect season.

That's a TON of motivation, even though ATL has many, many flaws which I need not document here. It has been a rough season for ATL to say the least.

But folks, you can't play much worst than the 38-0 loss they had against CAR last time out. So the score will be closer and there is a change from home to road.

Amazingly, Carolina couldn't cover with a 35-7 lead last week on the road.

They couldn't cover against the Saints before that on the road.

They covered against Dallas on Thansgiving but remember, Carolina was being disrespected in that spot opening as 1 point DOGS even with a perfect record. Lots of motivation for a statement game there and they delivered in a big way on national TV and knocked Romo out in the process. Luckily this is a game with little attention (outside of the perfect record chase) at 1 pm in ATL. No Monday night or Sunday night lights to ramp up the play.

Also, the latest 16 minutes of Carolina football have been the worst football they have played all year and it may be, minus the FG to win it, the worst quarter 15 minutes of football any team has played all year. 28 points in 15 minutes against an NFL team. Not Tulsa....an NFL team. To me, the Panthers looked completely mortal against a bad Giants team that couldn't stop scoring against a top ranked D.

Will that carry over this week? I don't know. I do know we get tons of line value and this is Carolina's third road game in 4 weeks, ramping up the travel/fatigue factor (always a good reason to back a home dog). 

3. Finally, some of the local ATL media said the Falcons quit against Carolina. That is always a reason to come out strong with players who put personal pride highest among all their virtues (vices?).

And better, they get redemption only two weeks later.

4. And even better yet, as mentioned previously, the Falcons have not been eliminated from the playoffs.

Here is how they get in:

Seattle loses twice
Vikings lose twice
Other things that I don't need to get into

This is a 1 pm  EST game. Seattle plays at 4 pm and the Vikes play at 8 pm.

So even though the Falcons know deep down they won't make the playoffs they still have a very very small shot and only need look at the field, not up at the scoreboard too as those other games are later.

You can wait for a better line if you don't like the juice but 7 is too strong a number to pass up in this spot. This number is juiced -115 to -130 on various sites.

The pick:

Atlanta+7 (juiced) over Carolina
[/Quote



Hey scal, always loved your writeups, win or lose. I think your spot on with this pick. Also, im a big listener to the the succ pod. I get that the books lost big last week. I dont think this weeks lines are even more inflated. Just variance i believe. All in all, books clean up when the seasons over.


 
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Posted: #24
Some more food for thought about motivation in this one.

"AFC Division Rivalry Game of Year The Jets are in a must win game today and need the Bengals to knock off the Broncos. But first things first. Can any team stop Gronkowski? He seems to catch more passes left wide open than anyone in the league. The Jets should put a combo of Revis, Skrine, Pryor, Harris, Gilchrist, and Cromartie on him. The game plan has to be to not let him beat you. Cover the short passes and then Brady is limited at best to long clock eating drives. The Jets offense has all the tools needed. Ryan Fitzpatrick to Brandon Marshall against one on one coverage. Alternate Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell''s rush attack and it comes down to one thing. Which team has the most desire? We know this is a "must win" for New York. But Belichick may rest some players. He may not care that much about this game. At this point they have home field throughout the playoffs. I look for the Jets momentum to be huge. Not that the Pats have none based on recent play but momentum plus desire plus revenge plus home field plus the points is too good to pass. Fitzpatrick to Marshall for the win!"
 
 
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I agree 100%....
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
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