Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
All but the Texans did not cover with the Pats game still in the balance.
A big dog week folks as Vegas predictably collects against the public big-time as expected.
Bottom line: When picking teams you are not completely familiar with, line reading and consensus reading works as a capping tool when done properly (of course there will always be detractors and say this Falcons win was independent of any of that. It was. But the line value in a week after Vegas got killed could be had if you took ATL).
I love that you are having a great season as you really deserved it after 2014.
But
I still don't get the public logic, maybe we are just talking past each other. I completely agree that you can get a read on
future line movement by looking at what the public thinks. You can also
get a clue by reading ESPN headlines though or by just looking at recent
results lol.
Last week the majority of the teams from the so called "public side" won, this time the other side. Where is the big deal? This league is about matchups and spots. Sometimes the "public side" presents the better matchup, sometimes the other site. Over the course of the season there should be a 50/50 split if we back-track consensus numbers.
The Texans are a far superior team than the Titans with Mettenburger. I didn't have it on my radar because the Texans struggled against a bad Colts team and I bite myself for that.
The Chiefs were without Justin Houston and Tamba Hali against an elite OL. That's why I stayed away from the -10. Johnny Manziel had time in the pocket and some room to run. I just couldn't bet Manziel on the road vs. a playoff contender. I can't believe the Chiefs were a public darling.
The Jets are one of those teams that match up BRILLIANTLY with the Patriots which we have seen in both games this year. The Jets completely dominated this game from start to finish. The Pats were banged up with injuries and Tom Brady was 1/10 on third down. They should have never gotten to overtime, the Jets deserved this win as they outplayed them in every facet. To take the Patriots wasn't stupid because it was a public side, but because it was a terrible matchup for them.
I played the Steelers and I still don't know whether I can blame myself. Who can expect such a performance by Ryan Mallet after one week with the Ravens against a defense that has been playing very good this season? It was the Ravens' personal Super Bowl and I underestimated that. The Steelers probably would have won by 20 against a 4-win NFC team.
The Panthers have shown vulnerability lately against teams who can air it out and you called this spot on the money. The Falcons were on huge revenge and gave 100% while the Panthers seemed to be satisfied. For me this game was a tossup at 7. The line seemed about right for me. Panthers were -8.5 at home and have won 38-0 and the next week the Falcons "just" beat the Jaguars by 6.
I completely agree that you can get a clue about line movement by looking at what the public thinks and sometimes there are opportunities to get more value. But we are getting this value because oddsmakers move lines to get 50/50 action. Local bookies and maybe some casinos at Vegas might take a hit or win more than the juice sometimes. But big offshores like 5Dimes, bet365 or Pinnacle don't move their lines 50 times on Sundays because they want uneven action
With so much money coming in from all over the world they would be damn stupid to not try to take balanced action to win huge on every game.
Pregame showed 133k bets from offshores on the SNF game yesterday. Imagine these bets would have been just $50 on average (I think it's more). This equals $6.65M bet on that game. Split the action with an average line of -110 and they collect $332,500 by just running an algorithm.
Keep on rolling, scal!
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