To hedge or not to hedge, here is the math and why hedging is a bad idea....

Do what you want....its your coin.

Frustration has set in.

 

 

 

The second is if you know ahead of time that you will hedge, why do you put the last game in the parlay to begin with when it pays more to leave it out for the same exact bet?

Thats the whole thing van, no one will ever say they know ahead of time they will hedge, even if they get into the habit of doing it.  There is no arguing the factual math involved that it is clearly better just to do a 3 teamer for 3 sunday games than to do a 4 teamer with the monday game.  Use a 16 week season for easy math, you should hit the 3 teamer twice (1 in 8...12.5%) and you should hit the 4 teamer once (1 in 16...6.25%)  If you are planning to hedge that 4th game the 2 times during the year you are going to be in a position to do so, you are clearly better off just leaving it off.  The problem is, its so rare for the average person to get in that position, that they mentally freak out and take the guaranteed money.  There is more guaranteed money winning 2 three-teamers over 16 weeks, than hedging 2 potential winning 4-teamers.

14 weeks out of 16 you will lose $100 on Sunday whether its a 3 teamer of sunday games, or 4-teamers with the monday game thrown in.  The other 2 weeks you would have either a) already cashed your 3 team parlay or b) won the first 3 legs of the 4 teamer with one pending.

What DevilFan doesnt see here is that by placing the 4 team parlay in the first place, YOU ARE ROLLING ALL YOUR WINNINGS INTO THE LAST GAME.....THATS WHAT THE PARLAY DOES.  Now you want to come off the 4th game so you pay the juice to bet the other side of the game you already rolled all your money into at worse odds.  So you are paying juice twice, and one of those is at bad odds. 

3 team parlay you will lose 100 14 times, and win 600 twice

4 team parlay you will lose 100 14 times, and then the 2 times you are able to hedge the 4th leg even if you get even money you get 500 twice

JUST LEAVE OFF THE LAST LEG....ITS SIMPLE AND ITS NOT SOMETHING THATS A MATTER OF OPINION...ITS FACT

The whole key here is if you know you are going to hedge ahead of time or not.  The only parlays I do are generally 2-teamers with team and total (like +1.5/unders or -1.5/overs in bases) so Im never in position to hedge.  I understand that the few times you hit the first few legs it seems like it makes sense to hedge, but its better to just do less legs or better yet not parlay at all.  If your last leg of a parlay you let ride looks great at halftime and you can get a big middle or say you have a team at a pk, up 20, and there is a +2000 live ML on the other team to come back...sure, even if its a little juice to skim I would hedge 100 to win 1500 with another 100 to win 1500 pretty much no matter how much of a lock a game looks...just to prevent anything from getting damaged in my apt.  (something I learned mavs/heat game 6 by not taking a big live heat ML early in the game to hedge series bets...that I shoulda done)  But thats not what we're talking about.  There are many people who practice throwing the late game or the monday game at the back end of parlays with the plan to hedge if they are fortunate enough to get to that position...

The point is, its guaranteed money in your pocket with an already won 3-team parlay if you are in position to hedge the 4th...and its better guaranteed money...so dont put on the 4th game in if it starts after the other 3 and you think you might hedge it if you are sitting at 3-0.  Think of it as straight bets....Would you put in 4 separate 550 to win 500 plays with one of them being the monday night with the intention to come off that play if you are 3-0 Sunday because you want to lock in being +3units?  Why go 4-1 +1450 when you can go 3-0 +1500?  ITS THE SAME THING

P.S.  Flat bet, straight bet....reads vans money management thread

YOU WILL NEVER LEARN!

I DONT HAVE TIME, EXPLAINING YOU SIMPLE THINGS..

IF YOU BELONG IN HERE, YOU WOULD KNOW WHAT VANZAC AND MYSELF ARE TRYIN TO SAY..

we know that already...We're just trying to get opinions on whether or not the guy last night should have hedged his parlay

VANZACK THEY WILL NEVER GET IT, AT LEAST WE KNOW WHAT TO DO!

 

Answer:

1. No.

2. Never get in that position again. Think about what you are doing.

3. READ all these posts again and again til it sinks in.

Much more simply:

 

A 4 team parlay with 3 sunday games and 1 monday game is bascially a lazy way of letting the book roll ALL YOUR WINNINGS into the 4th game if you hit the first 3 games...at a heftier price too.  Thats all that needs to be said

 

 

Only the last week of the season when a result from an early game could affect who plays in a later game (see dallas/detroit then philly/atlanta) would I understand someone placing a parlay with later intentions of hedging.

 

Isnt it obvious it would be better to have just bet the Texas Rangers straight today, than to have linked them in a parlay with another game tonight and then hedge that parlay?  Its the same thing as the fact that a 3 teamer is better than a 4 teamer with intentions to hedge the 4th game if the first 3 hit.  People say they want to guarantee money if the first three hit....then just do a 3 team parlay!!!  That will guarntee you money if you hit the first three....if you dont hit the first three you cant get any guaranteed money by hedging.  The only way you guarantee money by hedging is in a situation where you would have guaranteed yourself money without paying back juice bc you would have already hit the parlay.  What is there not to get about this?

Thanks Van....

I was waiting for someone to start a thread asking you if you thought the cardinals should have let the niners score late at the 1 when they were up 17-13

MY BETTING RULES ARE SIMPLE:

 

1. FOR EXAMPLE: IF I BET 100$ MY WINNINGS SHOULD BE AROUND 100$ (BET STAKE EXCLUDED)

2. ONLY BET ON MONEYLINES

3. NEVER MORE THEN 1 BET PER DAY

4. NO HEDGING

5. ONLY FAVS ACCEPTED IN MY BOOK (DOG IS HARD TO PICK, YOU HAVE ONLY 25% OF CHANCE PICKING RIGHT DOG, 75% IF YOU BET ON REAL FAV)

6. I BET ONLY ON COLLEGE SPORTS (WHEN BETTING BIG $)

7. ALWAYS PLAY BY THE BOOK

 

 

I HOPE YOU CAN LEARN STHIN FROM THIS!

I KNOW RACKJAW WONT!

OK LUNCHBOX.....No arguement from me...The question is being put out this way......You had no intentions of hedging on a 5 teamer..You made up a whacky 5teamer lets say.A fun parlay as i call it...Different days,times whatever....You put down 50 bucks for fun....Well lo and behold the first four hit. Your gonna make a boatload to you if it hits....Now you have a 50 dollar investment, that MAY make you 1500 lets say...Would you put in a bet for 100 dollars against the last team left in  your parlay at even money still? This way you walk away with at least 50 bucks if the parlay doesn't hit...I'm talking about a 50 bettor,where 50 is still money to him.....Even better if it was a 1000 on the parlay..would you hedge the last game???

This is if you were already positioned to hedge

i only hedge parlays if there is a huge discrepency of line movement

 

other wise let it ride

I have to take my crack at this....it's just too funny.

You have to pay a tax to hedge.  So it is stupid to hedge unless something has fundamentally changed about that bet that makes it less than the EV that you would have to pay in vig to get out of it. 

You have this on one hand.  And you have "guaranteed money on the other. 

Here is where I think the rub is for DevilFan et al.  They have a problem with expected value (which amazes me cuz KOAJ is purely a value better in baseball).  They think they are guaranteeing profits (which they are...just less profits) when in reality, they are agreeing to taking a discount by hedging and accepting/guaranteeing the money early.  They think they are avoiding the risk, but they are really just taking a discount.  They think it's worth it, but it is not.

What they will say is that they don't know what is going to happen in the last game.  This is true.  But as your number of bets nears infinity, you will hit that bet 50% of the time.  Sure, you can have some bad luck and go 0-3 in those last games of a parlay.  But OVER TIME, it will even out.  And if you DO hit 50% of those last games of a parlay and you DO NOT HEDGE, then you will come out AHEAD of where you would have been had you hedged.  Where people like DevilFan miss the point is you have to understand that you WILL WIN 50% of those final parlay bets OVER TIME.  They just don't want to risk a bad streak of say losing 5 straight of those last games.    Thus, they agree to take a discount on their money. 

Over time, it does cost them money.  This can not be debated.  But apparently they feel the security is worth avoiding the short term fluctuations where they may incur losses.  This addresses this post:

if you have 4 such parlays and you hedge evertytime using your numbers

1 - 424 * 4 = 1696 profit
2 - 500 * 2(ev) = 1000 profit

thats IF you can consitently expect to hit the last leg 50% of the time. i dont think anything is guaranteed

And KOAJ, you are right.  But look at baseball.  You bet a dog at +150 because you think you are getting VALUE.  There is no guarantee that the team wins....but you think +150 is VALUE so you bet it understanding that it's probably more likely that you lose the bet.  In the parlay, there is no guarantee that that last team wins either, but (if you capped properly) you have to think that you have a 50% chance to win the bet before the game starts.  IF YOU DO, then how can you hedge?  You're taking a discount to guarantee yourself money when letting it ride will result in you winning the parlay 50% of the time (over time).  And that, my friend, is more value.  

You bet value in baseball ALL THE TIME knowing that your team is probably more likely to lose then to win.  But you know that over time, you can probably go 50% and make a profit.  So why go and hedge the last game a parlay where over time it is likely you WILL hit 50% (you bet +105 to +160 dogs and think you can hit near 50%.....don't you have confidence that over time you can hit 50% with -105 to -110 favorites???).  And if you DO hit 50%, you'll get a much greater return then hedging over time. 

It really is just like betting value in baseball....you just need to see the connection. 

As for DevilFan, I don't think there is any hope for him. 

 

 

If its just a fun parlay, then chances are its something that isnt done just once, but is done often.  If you are doing these fun parlays over and over again, its still better off long term to let it ride and win the full amount 1/32 times than to skim yourself 1/16 times.  I would rather hit for 1000 once in every 32 parlays than to get 450 twice in every 32 parlays.

 

Now say I meant to put in a fun parlay for 100, accidentally typed it in as 1000, didnt notice until the first 3 legs have hit and I am able to hedge out??  Absolutely in a heartbeat I would hedge...it was a mistake.  If the thread last night I just glanced at was treated as "I made a mistake by placing a 5 team parlay with the last leg on monday, I realize this is stupid and will never do it again, but should I just hedge this one and suck up the mistake?' I would say yes.  If it was your last 50 bucks meaning there were no more future parlays I would say hedge if you could find a friend...and then dont parlay anymore.

 

If you are going to parlay enough where you have 32 fun parlays over the course of say the football season, you are better off hitting one than hedging the 2 times you are in position to win.  Again..why take 450 twice instead of 1000 once?

 

If I was on deal or no deal with 2 suitcases left, the 1 million dollar and 1 dollar are left...I would take a lot less than 500k to deal...because I dont want to risk 500k on a ONE TIME coin flip.  I would take 400k guaranteed over a 50/50 chance at 500k if I was only offered the opportunity once....but when anyone talks about these fun parlays, they usually arent a one time deal...so under most circumstances dont hedge.

 

 

DEVILFAN=RACKJAW=

I only read the original post so if what I say has already been said, sorry.

 

So in summary here are the expected values in this situation:

1.  Hedging 424

2.  Don’t hedge 500

3.  Leave the last game off of the parlay 600

 

The last option(3) makes no sense to me.  I mean if i was an awful bettor and I wanted to give away my money, then three would be an option, but I don't find that pertinent to the hedge debate.

 

I'm gonna break it down simple using your math in a 10 game scenario.  Hedging will net you $4,240 over 10 games(10 X $424).  Letting it ride for 10 games using the probable winning percentages you supplied(50-50%), you will hit for $2500(5 X $500).