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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    To hedge or not to hedge, here is the math and why hedging is a bad idea....

    «First Previous 123 ... 282930 Next Last»
    DoubleUp4Life
    vanzack
    richard-eren
    PepeFrog
    JimmyGape
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    «First Previous 123 ... 282930 Next Last»
     
    DoubleUp4Life
    DoubleUp4Life
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    Posted: May. 1, 2022 - 7:35 PM ET #676

    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    This concept also applies to "cashouts".  Same as a hedge.  Most of the time, DONT DO IT.

     

    Please help Brorher an_praise

    Would you hedge a Liverpool  champions league winner Futures that pays around  $8400 ( invested $1440)  ??

    If they advance to the final game I  cash for 1800 on a to make final game future ..

    I don't see Villarreal beating Liverpool by 2+ Tuesday,  but I am concerned they lose to Man City in the championship.( think Liverpool would beat Real Madrid ) ...

    Would you bet Man City to win the championship at +115 ??? If so how much ?? 

    I'm tempted to put $3k+ down ...

     

    Many THANKS in advance if you have time !!! 

    BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
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    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    This concept also applies to "cashouts".  Same as a hedge.  Most of the time, DONT DO IT.

     

    Please help Brorher an_praise

    Would you hedge a Liverpool  champions league winner Futures that pays around  $8400 ( invested $1440)  ??

    If they advance to the final game I  cash for 1800 on a to make final game future ..

    I don't see Villarreal beating Liverpool by 2+ Tuesday,  but I am concerned they lose to Man City in the championship.( think Liverpool would beat Real Madrid ) ...

    Would you bet Man City to win the championship at +115 ??? If so how much ?? 

    I'm tempted to put $3k+ down ...

     

    Many THANKS in advance if you have time !!! 

     
    DoubleUp4Life
    DoubleUp4Life
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    Posted: May. 1, 2022 - 9:47 PM ET #677

    I understand you're against hedging , but I also know you're a soccer guy .

    While Liverpool and Man City have played to 2 draws , I'm intrested to see what you think happens if they meet I the finals ..

    BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
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    I understand you're against hedging , but I also know you're a soccer guy .

    While Liverpool and Man City have played to 2 draws , I'm intrested to see what you think happens if they meet I the finals ..

     
    vanzack
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    Posted: May. 11, 2022 - 9:29 AM ET #678

    DU4L....

    I am just seeing this. Hit me up on Twitter if you need an immediate response.

    But I certainly hope you didnt cash out. You are in a GREAT position now.

    GL

     

    peace_5

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    DU4L....

    I am just seeing this. Hit me up on Twitter if you need an immediate response.

    But I certainly hope you didnt cash out. You are in a GREAT position now.

    GL

     

    peace_5

     
    DoubleUp4Life
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    Posted: May. 11, 2022 - 10:44 AM ET #679

    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    DU4L.... I am just seeing this. Hit me up on Twitter if you need an immediate response. But I certainly hope you didnt cash out. You are in a GREAT position now. GL

     

     

    Thank you Brother,  I'll hit you up there in the near future...Have a FANTASTIC summer , can't wait to read your thoughts on the WORLD CUP 

    My hate for man city put me in a even better spot ...

    Couldn't bring myself to make my largest soccer better ever on a team I despise with passion an_roll_laugh

     

    Ended up taking REAL MADRID at +1000 for $420 before the match to win the UCL

    https://www.covers.com/forum/soccer-36/please-help-do-i-hedge-this-champions-league-future-103637716

    BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
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    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    DU4L.... I am just seeing this. Hit me up on Twitter if you need an immediate response. But I certainly hope you didnt cash out. You are in a GREAT position now. GL

     

     

    Thank you Brother,  I'll hit you up there in the near future...Have a FANTASTIC summer , can't wait to read your thoughts on the WORLD CUP 

    My hate for man city put me in a even better spot ...

    Couldn't bring myself to make my largest soccer better ever on a team I despise with passion an_roll_laugh

     

    Ended up taking REAL MADRID at +1000 for $420 before the match to win the UCL

    https://www.covers.com/forum/soccer-36/please-help-do-i-hedge-this-champions-league-future-103637716

     
    vanzack
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    Posted: May. 11, 2022 - 2:34 PM ET #680

    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: DU4L.... I am just seeing this. Hit me up on Twitter if you need an immediate response. But I certainly hope you didnt cash out. You are in a GREAT position now. GL     Thank you Brother,  I'll hit you up there in the near future...Have a FANTASTIC summer , can't wait to read your thoughts on the WORLD CUP  My hate for man city put me in a even better spot ... Couldn't bring myself to make my largest soccer better ever on a team I despise with passion    Ended up taking REAL MADRID at +1000 for $420 before the match to win the UCL https://www.covers.com/forum/soccer-36/please-help-do-i-hedge-this-champions-league-future-103637716

    After reading this.... Im pretty sure I cant wait for YOUR World Cup thread!

    6 months and counting...

    an_cheers

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: DU4L.... I am just seeing this. Hit me up on Twitter if you need an immediate response. But I certainly hope you didnt cash out. You are in a GREAT position now. GL     Thank you Brother,  I'll hit you up there in the near future...Have a FANTASTIC summer , can't wait to read your thoughts on the WORLD CUP  My hate for man city put me in a even better spot ... Couldn't bring myself to make my largest soccer better ever on a team I despise with passion    Ended up taking REAL MADRID at +1000 for $420 before the match to win the UCL https://www.covers.com/forum/soccer-36/please-help-do-i-hedge-this-champions-league-future-103637716

    After reading this.... Im pretty sure I cant wait for YOUR World Cup thread!

    6 months and counting...

    an_cheers

     
    DoubleUp4Life
    DoubleUp4Life
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    Posted: May. 27, 2022 - 2:29 PM ET #681

    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life: Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: DU4L.... I am just seeing this. Hit me up on Twitter if you need an immediate response. But I certainly hope you didnt cash out. You are in a GREAT position now. GL     Thank you Brother,  I'll hit you up there in the near future...Have a FANTASTIC summer , can't wait to read your thoughts on the WORLD CUP  My hate for man city put me in a even better spot ... Couldn't bring myself to make my largest soccer better ever on a team I despise with passion    Ended up taking REAL MADRID at +1000 for $420 before the match to win the UCL https://www.covers.com/forum/soccer-36/please-help-do-i-hedge-this-champions-league-future-103637716 After reading this.... Im pretty sure I cant wait for YOUR World Cup thread! 6 months and counting...

     

    Hopefully FIFA 23 on the ps4 gives accurate predictions for the world cup , or I'll be broke an_roll_laugh

    BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
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    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life: Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: DU4L.... I am just seeing this. Hit me up on Twitter if you need an immediate response. But I certainly hope you didnt cash out. You are in a GREAT position now. GL     Thank you Brother,  I'll hit you up there in the near future...Have a FANTASTIC summer , can't wait to read your thoughts on the WORLD CUP  My hate for man city put me in a even better spot ... Couldn't bring myself to make my largest soccer better ever on a team I despise with passion    Ended up taking REAL MADRID at +1000 for $420 before the match to win the UCL https://www.covers.com/forum/soccer-36/please-help-do-i-hedge-this-champions-league-future-103637716 After reading this.... Im pretty sure I cant wait for YOUR World Cup thread! 6 months and counting...

     

    Hopefully FIFA 23 on the ps4 gives accurate predictions for the world cup , or I'll be broke an_roll_laugh

     
    richard-eren
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    Posted: Sep. 1, 2023 - 9:19 AM ET #682

     urban jungle

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     urban jungle

     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Sep. 1, 2023 - 11:21 AM ET #683

    16 year old thread being bumped.  I was excited.  But it was just spam.

    an_drunksick

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    16 year old thread being bumped.  I was excited.  But it was just spam.

    an_drunksick

     
    PepeFrog
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    Posted: Sep. 4, 2023 - 7:15 PM ET #684

    The only best way to hedge is hedging your futures bet.

    For example: Last season if you got Eagles 10 to 1 odds to win the super bowl then a week before the super bowl between the Chiefs vs Eagles matchup. Place a bet on the Chiefs -1. You can bet the same amount on the Chiefs you did on Eagles futures or you can be 5 times on the Chiefs to even value with the 10 to 1 Eagles bet. Now you hedged on both teams to make profit.

    moneybag

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    The only best way to hedge is hedging your futures bet.

    For example: Last season if you got Eagles 10 to 1 odds to win the super bowl then a week before the super bowl between the Chiefs vs Eagles matchup. Place a bet on the Chiefs -1. You can bet the same amount on the Chiefs you did on Eagles futures or you can be 5 times on the Chiefs to even value with the 10 to 1 Eagles bet. Now you hedged on both teams to make profit.

    moneybag

     
    JimmyGape
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    Posted: Sep. 5, 2023 - 11:14 AM ET #685

     Alot of time I will put together a bullshit parlay with a late game in there just case I hit the early ones, I can hedge out and guarante $.

     

    paint_help

     

    Why not just leave the last "bullshit game" out of the parlay if you're just gonna hedge it later and pay juice anyway.  an_timeout

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     Alot of time I will put together a bullshit parlay with a late game in there just case I hit the early ones, I can hedge out and guarante $.

     

    paint_help

     

    Why not just leave the last "bullshit game" out of the parlay if you're just gonna hedge it later and pay juice anyway.  an_timeout

     
    DefenseWinsSB
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    Posted: Sep. 5, 2023 - 1:20 PM ET #686

    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    16 year old thread being bumped.  I was excited.  But it was just spam.

    I can’t wait to see your plate for Thursday and the weekend. I also love the Jets Monday night and hoping your on the same side

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    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    16 year old thread being bumped.  I was excited.  But it was just spam.

    I can’t wait to see your plate for Thursday and the weekend. I also love the Jets Monday night and hoping your on the same side

     
    glyde69
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    Posted: Jan. 1, 2024 - 12:21 PM ET #687

    lol at post #2.   15 year old stupidity cracking me up today.  

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    lol at post #2.   15 year old stupidity cracking me up today.  

     
    Newtons Law
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2024 - 2:39 AM ET #688

    @vanzack

     Gamblers unwilling to do the math and yet blame bad luck for losing on a consistent basis. Even worse is the ignorance of the accumulated Vig of betting high volumes of games over time. More math swept under the rug.

     

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    @vanzack

     Gamblers unwilling to do the math and yet blame bad luck for losing on a consistent basis. Even worse is the ignorance of the accumulated Vig of betting high volumes of games over time. More math swept under the rug.

     

     
    Pound4pound8
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2024 - 9:23 AM ET #689

    @Newtons Law

     Do you post NBA picks

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    @Newtons Law

     Do you post NBA picks

     
    Pound4pound8
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2024 - 9:24 AM ET #690

    @vanzack

     Do you pick NBA games

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    @vanzack

     Do you pick NBA games

     
    joe pockets
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2024 - 9:43 AM ET #691

    “The harder I work, the more lucky I get.” -Thomas Jefferson.      Your analysis proves this man correct   thumbs_up

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    “The harder I work, the more lucky I get.” -Thomas Jefferson.      Your analysis proves this man correct   thumbs_up

     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2024 - 11:11 AM ET #692

    16 year old thread, and still relevant.  This gets discussed every day on twitter and here at covers.  Still widely misunderstood.

    I love looking at all of the banned avatars from days gone by.

    peace_5

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    16 year old thread, and still relevant.  This gets discussed every day on twitter and here at covers.  Still widely misunderstood.

    I love looking at all of the banned avatars from days gone by.

    peace_5

     
    Yanasaur
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2024 - 12:21 PM ET #693

    @vanzack

     Im glad this got bumped up from so long ago. Its something ive never thought about. 

    Ive been betting a long time and im basically around even all time, slightly losing many years, more recently being a winner the last few seasons as I've learned. I usually have a couple fun cheap parlays i play each week during football season and ive always hedged that last game, never thought about it like this. 

    From now on i will do it the way you suggested. A couple times this year i actually hit those longshot parlays but i hedged away half my profit. 

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    @vanzack

     Im glad this got bumped up from so long ago. Its something ive never thought about. 

    Ive been betting a long time and im basically around even all time, slightly losing many years, more recently being a winner the last few seasons as I've learned. I usually have a couple fun cheap parlays i play each week during football season and ive always hedged that last game, never thought about it like this. 

    From now on i will do it the way you suggested. A couple times this year i actually hit those longshot parlays but i hedged away half my profit. 

     
    Ppkay
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    Posted: Jan. 3, 2024 - 1:30 AM ET #694

    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    16 year old thread being bumped.  I was excited.  But it was just spam.

     

    Yes but its always nice to be reminded.  

    You can bring a horse to water but you cant make them drink it.

    Some People still believe the world flat and covid is fake.  All you can do is put facts out.  You cant help how someone interprets it!

     

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    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    16 year old thread being bumped.  I was excited.  But it was just spam.

     

    Yes but its always nice to be reminded.  

    You can bring a horse to water but you cant make them drink it.

    Some People still believe the world flat and covid is fake.  All you can do is put facts out.  You cant help how someone interprets it!

     

     
    nfl_brosuf
    nfl_brosuf
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    Posted: Jan. 3, 2024 - 9:05 PM ET #695

    Hedging depends on other factors too.  I started out as a parlay lotto guy.  If you play enough parlay, you would also notice that your last leg is usually the ones that fawks you up.  Maybe it has something with the last game of the day being jinx or Monday night being shady.  

    Now hedging depends on the individual and how much the parlay pot is.  If $100 ticket pays $10,000, you know darn well I'll hedge for half pay because I have never seen what $5k looks like before.  If it pays $700 on a three teamer, let her ride.  $700 is chump change to some folks.  

     

    Now there's the third strategy.  No matter how much my payout on a parlay will be, I'll hedge the last leg to get my initial wager back.  

    So it's either even or a handsome pay.  Can't lose this way.  

    Why parlay?  Because we are busy to bet single bet and roll all in onto the next leg which pays more.  Parlay should be done in segments.  Early games parlay n cash out, double header parlay n cash out.  Silly would mean betting early, double header, snf, MNF, all on a parlay.  Parlay is still for suckers but it's a lottery and I'm not expecting to win any parlay or lottery anytime soon.  Small bet n take a shot at big time multiplier for fun.  Yes, losing money for fun.  an_beatup

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    Hedging depends on other factors too.  I started out as a parlay lotto guy.  If you play enough parlay, you would also notice that your last leg is usually the ones that fawks you up.  Maybe it has something with the last game of the day being jinx or Monday night being shady.  

    Now hedging depends on the individual and how much the parlay pot is.  If $100 ticket pays $10,000, you know darn well I'll hedge for half pay because I have never seen what $5k looks like before.  If it pays $700 on a three teamer, let her ride.  $700 is chump change to some folks.  

     

    Now there's the third strategy.  No matter how much my payout on a parlay will be, I'll hedge the last leg to get my initial wager back.  

    So it's either even or a handsome pay.  Can't lose this way.  

    Why parlay?  Because we are busy to bet single bet and roll all in onto the next leg which pays more.  Parlay should be done in segments.  Early games parlay n cash out, double header parlay n cash out.  Silly would mean betting early, double header, snf, MNF, all on a parlay.  Parlay is still for suckers but it's a lottery and I'm not expecting to win any parlay or lottery anytime soon.  Small bet n take a shot at big time multiplier for fun.  Yes, losing money for fun.  an_beatup

     
    NYG4rings
    NYG4rings
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    Posted: Jan. 4, 2024 - 9:23 AM ET #696

    I raraely hedge but I did this past Sunday. Had a 6 teamer that would hit for significant money heading into the GB game needing GB to cover the spread. Hedged on minnesota and it has been knawing at me since. Could have atleast caught a live game hedge at big + money once they went down. With that said, I only hedged about 20% of the parlay payout. Could have been worse 

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    I raraely hedge but I did this past Sunday. Had a 6 teamer that would hit for significant money heading into the GB game needing GB to cover the spread. Hedged on minnesota and it has been knawing at me since. Could have atleast caught a live game hedge at big + money once they went down. With that said, I only hedged about 20% of the parlay payout. Could have been worse 

     
    Fuse
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    Posted: Jan. 4, 2024 - 1:22 PM ET #697

    Great info peace_5peaceclover

    Learn, be content and stay disciplined.
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    Great info peace_5peaceclover

     
    BigGame90
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    Posted: Jan. 4, 2024 - 7:17 PM ET #698

    With the ease of access and in game betting in todays market, hedging can be beneficial with an in-game play trying to hit a middle. Obviously involves risk once the game starts as your line may never land in your favor, but for the most part, you can usually find better in game lines than the opening/closing line. 

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    With the ease of access and in game betting in todays market, hedging can be beneficial with an in-game play trying to hit a middle. Obviously involves risk once the game starts as your line may never land in your favor, but for the most part, you can usually find better in game lines than the opening/closing line. 

     
    TRAIN69
    TRAIN69
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    Posted: Jan. 4, 2024 - 8:34 PM ET #699

    Quote Originally Posted by BigGame90:

    With the ease of access and in game betting in todays market, hedging can be beneficial with an in-game play trying to hit a middle. Obviously involves risk once the game starts as your line may never land in your favor, but for the most part, you can usually find better in game lines than the opening/closing line.
    Hedging and middling are related, but more like cousins....

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    Quote Originally Posted by BigGame90:

    With the ease of access and in game betting in todays market, hedging can be beneficial with an in-game play trying to hit a middle. Obviously involves risk once the game starts as your line may never land in your favor, but for the most part, you can usually find better in game lines than the opening/closing line.
    Hedging and middling are related, but more like cousins....

     
     
    dyamarik
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2024 - 9:42 AM ET #700

    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    16 year old thread, and still relevant.  This gets discussed every day on twitter and here at covers.  Still widely misunderstood. I love looking at all of the banned avatars from days gone by.

    Was thinking the same thing... an_roll_laugh

    People who can afford to gamble don't need money, and those who need money can't afford to
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    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    16 year old thread, and still relevant.  This gets discussed every day on twitter and here at covers.  Still widely misunderstood. I love looking at all of the banned avatars from days gone by.

    Was thinking the same thing... an_roll_laugh

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