To hedge or not to hedge, here is the math and why hedging is a bad idea....

Hey Van-- I didnt read your entire post but I hedged yesterday and it worked out well.

I had a $400 teaser of Dallas (even) and 49ers (+3.5).

When the line went to S.F. -3.5 yesterday, I bet $400 on Arizona +3.5.  Obviously I was hoping either team would win by 3 or less and if so, I would hit both sides and win $800.  If either team won by more than 3, then I would have lost either $40 or $80, depending which team won.

It worked out for me obviously and I won the $800.

As far as hedging parlays, if I only have one game left open on a parlay and I can guarantee myself $ by betting the other side of the last game, I will usually do it.  These are more profitable when betting money lines as opposed to a spread especially if you are hedging out by betting the ML dog.

I don't necessarily agree with you that hedging is not smart.  Anytime you can guarantee yourself $, you should consider taking it.  Alot of time I will put together a bullshit parlay with a late game in there just case I hit the early ones, I can hedge out and guarante $.

You dont read my post but you dont agree with what I am saying?

How do you know what I am saying?

Unreal.

I give up.  If you read my post above, it explains why this is a terrible idea.  But you wont read, so you wont ever understand.

All I can do is laugh.  I explain above why everything about this is a bad idea.  How putting a parlay together with a late game is bad, and how putting a game in a parlay that you know ahead of time you will hedge is bad, but you just come right back and repeat to me what I already know:

MOST GAMBLERS WILL DO NOTHING TO HELP THEMSELVES MAKE MORE MONEY.

Its math.  It is not debatable.  But you would rather give money to your book as a gift instead of keep it for yourself.  Oh well.

This is why we live in America buddy, or at least, I do.  I don't need to agree with you or your reasoning.  I read your post and I don't agree with it.

You're telling me it is stupid to guarantee yourself $?

If you are, then all I can do is .

fyi.. I said I didnt read your entire post.  I read enough of it. I'm an attorney, I'm trained to spot the issue without having to read all the other crap surrounding it....

UNDERSTAND THAT HEDGING COMES AT A PRICE, YOU WILL PAY EXTRA IN ORDER TO HEDGE.

Thanks Dr. Obvious.  This is gambling, there is and always will be a price...

What I am missing is your thinking that Hedging, WHEN YOU CAN GUARANTEE YOURSELF $, is foolish.  Tell me how foolish it is next time you don't hedge and you end up losing the last game.  Come to me then and tell me how that worked out for you.  Come tell me that it wasnt foolish not to hedge and guarantee yourself $ because you had to pay 10% vig.

And, when I say guarantee yourself $, I am not talking about a few dollars.  What I did last night was hedge a teaser, a lot different than hedging parlay because I couldn't guarantee myself $ last night but the risk vs. reward last night was worth it.  I basically had 6 numbers to middle both bets where the payout was 10-1.  I will take that every day of the week and twice on sunday my friend.

So you are saying that you choose to win less money, just for the hell of it.

You dont want to win more money by doing the same exact thing, you would rather GIVE money away by doing something else that gives you the same exact risk.

OK mr Attorney.  Looks like you correctly spotted the important parts of my post.

Listen to yourself.  You are actually saying that given a choice between making more money or making less money on the same exact situation, you would take less, and not only take less but argue that it is somehow smart!

Wow.  Your fellow attorneys must be so proud to have you as a peer.

This, along with your foolishness of not reading my original post in its entirety and actually thinking - is why you will never be a winning gambler - or never win as much as you should.

Its your choice, and you are choosing to GIVE money away.

GL with that.

Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:

van

if i can lock in a profit and minimize my risk i will do it. i dont really consider myself a gambler anyway...more of an investor of sorts

although i hate minimizing my profit, i do like guaranteed profit and little risk

this is very rare for me as i dont do parlays and teasers much if at all

Holy shit KOAJ did you read my original post?

I am absolutely stunned by the opposition.  Please read my post again.

Hedging is a psychological mindfuck.  I give alternatives in my original post to doing the same exact thing as hedging, by not hedging, and making more money.

Somebody help me here please. 

You bet half as much on each einstein, please tell me you understood that.

Its the same as hedging, and please tell me you understand that.

Quote Originally Posted by angelobruno:

mathwise u are correct brother van but for some its about gar a buck , and i did read your original post , good stuff as usual    

Angelo - but it is very easy to guarantee yourself MORE bucks.

Its not one or the other.  It is betting it a different way to make yourself MORE MONEY on the same wager.

Im not sure what the confusion is here.

Let me try to say this in a way that even you might understand:

I give you an option to bet the the Colts vs the Cardinals.  The colts are favored by 3.  You have one of the following 2 options:

1.  Bet the colts -3 -110

2.  Bet the blue team -3 vs the red team at +150.

They are the same bet, but you are presented with a way to bet it and make more money.  THIS IS WHAT I AM SAYING WITH HEDGING!!!

You can make more money every single time by just betting it differently.  Do you get it now?

You are a moron for not maximizing the amount of money you will make for guaranteeing profit.

You can make a profit of X, or you can make a profit of >X, and you are choosing X.

So yes, you are a moron.

1.  Hedging 424 - guaranteed every time

2.  Don’t hedge 500 - hit or miss, 50/50 chance everytime