Its your choice, and you are choosing to GIVE money away.
Right, by guaranteeing myself $ versus doing nothing at all and losing $ after the last game loses. There are no guarantees in gambling and no matter how much you love a side or total, it can lose for any of a number of reasons. For that very reason, a smart gambler will guarantee himself $ every chance he gets. And for that reason, I am a smart gambler.
I bet thousands of dollars every day of my life on sports, this is not a one day go for the big hit kind of score. Every day that I win $, is a good day.
I promise you that if you stop and think for a few minutes about this, you will start to understand why everything you say here leads to losing, or at least not winning as much as you should.
You are giving money away. There is no other way to put it. Your position sounds exactly like all of the craps systems which employ psychological mindfucks like "every day I win is a good day". You should be winning MORE on those winning days, and you are BY CHOICE GIVING MONEY AWAY.
Its your choice, but giving money away is probably not what you want to be doing. And instead of arguing with me, why dont you read and think for a few minutes and tell me when the light goes on.
You are a moron for not maximizing the amount of money you will make for guaranteeing profit.
You can make a profit of X, or you can make a profit of >X, and you are choosing X.
So yes, you are a moron.
if you have 4 such parlays and you hedge evertytime using your numbers
1 - 424 * 4 = 1696 profit
2 - 500 * 2(ev) = 1000 profit
thats IF you can consitently expect to hit the last leg 50% of the time. i dont think anything is guaranteed
in the grand scheme yes hedging is the worst option but to me it comes down to guaranteed money vs risk. i will choose guaranteed money almost every time
Koaj, your math is wrong. Your expected value on situation #2 is 500 already adjusted for every situation.
If you did those 2 options 4 times each, it just compounds why it is smarter to go with option 2:
1. 1696
2. 2000
Please think about this. Its exhausting to explain basic mathematics.
If I gave you a choice to flip a coin, and if you call it right you win 10 dollars, and if you call it wrong you lose 1 dollar.
Then I said I will give you 1 dollar to not do this bet.
You can guarantee yourself 1 dollar, but you are giving up an expected value of 5 dollars.
If you think this is smart then by all means - GUARANTEE YOURSELF THE MONEY. This is exactly what you are doing by hedging. And I cant explain it any better than I have. You dont get it, and I doubt you will ever get it until you stop and think.
is on and yes, I will continue to guarantee myself $.
If you did those 2 options 4 times each, it just compounds why it is smarter to go with option 2:
1. 1696
2. 2000
Please think about this. Its exhausting to explain basic mathematics.
That spells it out perfectly, why do you think the books are in lover with the hedgers, look at all the vig that just is given away.
This is a perfect example of when to hedge.
I hedged a 100k future on the colts because in that week PINNACLE SHUT DOWN FOR US CUSTOMERS!!!
Something fundamentally changed about the risk of the bet, and I took a payout because of the instability at that moment in time with my perceived risk of being paid.
your putting the advantage on the house...instead of grinding at the rail
is on and yes, I will continue to guarantee myself $.Devilfan - with all due respect, you are posting without thinking. We are going around and around, and it is because you are refusing to think about it (or you dont have the ability to understand probability).
You are looking at 1 example instead of long term results.
You have less of an expected value if you hedge than if you dont. And its not even close. You also can hedge before you even bet the parlay, and make more money in the end, by just leaving the last game off in the first place.
When you hedge, you are basically paying them extra in order to give you your parlay minus one team. So if you are going to bet a 4 team parlay and hedge, you should bet a 3 team parlay. Same exact bet, but more money.
I cant say it any clearer than that.
The concept you are missing is it has nothing to do with the confidence to win that last bet, it has to do with guaranteeing a win and $ in my pocket. Again, if you don't hedge the last game and it loses, what have you won? NOTHING. Rather, you are paying $ out.
your putting the advantage on the house...instead of grinding at the railI dont play craps ever.
You dont understand what I am saying.
It is clear to me why so many people lose gambling.
This is called utility.
And if you realize ahead of time that you have utility created by the amounts possible to win, why dont you just leave off the last game of the parlay?
Focus, and please read that question and give me a direct answer.
You make more money by leaving it off, you know you are going to hedge, but yet you put it on? WHY?
I give you an option to bet the the Colts vs the Cardinals. The colts are favored by 3. You have one of the following 2 options:
1. Bet the colts -3 -110
2. Bet the blue team -3 vs the red team at +150.
They are the same bet, but you are presented with a way to bet it and make more money. THIS IS WHAT I AM SAYING WITH HEDGING!!!
You can make more money every single time by just betting it differently.
Koaj, your math is wrong. Your expected value on situation #2 is 500 already adjusted for every situation.
If you did those 2 options 4 times each, it just compounds why it is smarter to go with option 2:
1. 1696
2. 2000
Please think about this. Its exhausting to explain basic mathematics.
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