To hedge or not to hedge, here is the math and why hedging is a bad idea....

Ok, I am definitly on the side of those who consider the earth to be actually not that flat at all. Nonetheless I would like to throw in another argument ( that I could at least not find on the first 3 pages, I skipped the rest): there may be massive inherent emotional value for people placing a parlay/teaser with a massive potential outcome. To just skip that last leg in the first place would not be as sexy.

So, if you do agree to this, how do you weigh this emotional value? Is is worth the monetary cost of trying to take a rubber and scratch that last leg from your ticket once the other legs had hit, accepting to pay double the juice? That is a question that everybody has to decide for her and himself, I guess. 

ive read this before a long while ago but just looked at the first few pages again..good grief vanzack,going back and forth with devilfan was worse than smashing ones head against a brick wall...insanity.

Well I read 7 pages worth and skipped to the last page.  Thanks for the bump OP.  I know u got this page on bookmark cuz there in no hell way you can go back n hunt for it.

 With that said, no one addressing that money is still left on the table if you parlay 2 or more on a single card.  

A 3 teamer these days are paying 6-1 odds however, I make more money if I parlay, all in style with individual games.  

Win 1, all in game 2, all in game 3 and I'm sure the odds payout is better than 6-1

In this way, you dont have to worry about hedging since the payout money is already in your hands.

 Maybe that is why they say parlay is for suckers but betting single games n rolling it all Into the next is also a parlay style but flexibility is in your hands and it now stops the bookie from loving you as a parlay card player. 

A solid read 13 years ago, a great read today.....

These threads make me feel old - I remember when this was first posted and it seems like it was only a few years ago.  Where does the time go?

What @zanzack is saying, is that it's -EV to hedge out.

Not sure how this was hard to understand. 

Hedging doesn't work well in the Markets either except with options ...  Here is the best practice for that.

After a long consolidation breakout,   Never hedge a long position until markets are near 2 ATR and then Sell Calls for this weeks expirations against the averages.    That is the only hedge I use.

This thread is hilarious and epitomizes the entire Covers experience. Winning bettor with lots of knowledge and good information tries to help losers stop losing and win money, and all he gets is resistance. I'm convinced now. 85% of the people on this forum have an unconscious desire or need to lose.

im not going to go back through the whole thing again to check,but im about 99.999% that vanzack also pointed out this exact point also..that you have no reason whatsoever to parlay separate games that do not overlap.you are losing money by doing so,correct.

And wtf does emotional cost have to do with it. 

if you played a 6 teamer and it has the last leg on it ... you already won the 5 teamer and can now play on the last game ????

Well, you make a 2nd bet and therefore pay juice for a second time. To make it more obvious I will make an absurd example. You are making a straight bet for 100 bucks at -110 with the intention to hedge it a few minutes later in order to guarantee you some winning money. Now you are ending up paying 9 bucks juice instead of avering paying 4.5 bucks would you let the first bet run. Of course, you should not make the first bet in the first place ( that is what this thread is about).

As to the emotional cost ( what I actually meant was emotional benefit/reward for the donked off money): I just wanted to widen this discussion a bit. There are other currencies than money, and while the oeconomical truth of vanzacks elaborations is indisputable, those other currencies ( i.e. emotions) have to be taken into account if you look at this issue with a humanistic approach. I dont want to get too philosophical but life ( and any causal chains most often as well) doesnt end with money. I know people that are razor sharp when gambling/investing, but just unto the window but idiotic with that grinded out money thereafter. Conversely, one should accept that life reaches into gambling.

So, my attitude is: let the kids play. If somebody asks me how to hedge out of a bet, I try to help. But if the same guy asks me if I think that he is smart, I try to tell him the truth ( maybe not as patiently as vanzack though).

Let me put it another way: think of those dudes lighting up their cigars with 100$ bills. Is that smart from an oeconomical point of view? Unbeknowst the circumstances, probably not. But those guys probably get a reward for their burnt money: a sense of superiority ( over money, other humans, whatever) maybe. You often pay money for emotions and experiences. Why should you only be allowed to buy that kind of stuff only after you eeked out every EV point of a play and not already along the way?

Ok, one last , then I will shut up: as wellminded as I considere vanzacks desperate tries to spread the truth to devilfan to have been, he sends him on a bit of a detour. The guy is ( at least he claims to) already there: he is happy with his life. Vanzack offers him the following road to get there again: irritation-doubt-hopefully understanding-wisdom- more money- happy again.

It would make sense in you were paying juice on a parlay i guess? 

You summed it up right there, you can't help some people no matter what...."covers experience" it's an entertaining ride that's for sure.  

So Van.....your thoughts on the 2020 election next tuesday.....Trump +160 seems very silly to me....like the oddsmakers are buying the polling info again and not doing their research.....t

Me too.  I am revisiting some of these.

This is one of my favorites.  I have had this argument many times and I never can get the point across - people can't get "guaranteed profit" out of their minds. 

ML parlays with big favorites is a related topic that makes no sense.  People would never bet $100 to win $10 straight up on a -1000 wager, but they will parlay 8 of these together. What is the difference?  When I go to my sportsbook they have kiosks to put bets in, I always look at what people are doing, it is 95 percent parlays with 6+ teams, usually MLs or buying points.

I dont believe in hedging before the game starts but if shit is looking like its not going in my favor you best believe im hedging and taking a profit or atleast limiting my loss. Might not be the correct thing to do and sometimes i do give up some of my profits doing so but winning not as much is better than losing.

Holyh3llz: It would make sense in you were paying juice on a parlay i guess?

Sigh...

yeah i hope vanzack comes back. quality poster imo

who knows, not my biz i have no clue one way or another just hope it can sort itself out.

This concept also applies to "cashouts".  Same as a hedge.  Most of the time, DONT DO IT.