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To hedge or not to hedge, here is the math and why hedging is a bad idea....

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Posted: #626
Quote Originally Posted by AlphaandOmega:

ALL YOU NITWITS ARE MISSING VANZAK'S POINT 

What is so hard to understand? Why you people no comprende nothing?

His point is one-

You should NEVER EVER EVER be in the situation where you would have to hedge because you should never be betting parlays the way you bet them!

So I will repeat what Vanzack is saying

DO NOT BET A PARLAY that includes games being played in different time slots or different days because you can bet a rolling if bet instead and make more money!




 
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Posted: #627
i feel like i'm doing my community service for the year just by bumping this post
 
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Posted: #628

holy fu.kkkkkkkkking shiiitballs,just read the beginning of this thread for the first time.
a few questions obviously arise.
wat in fu.kkks name is wrong with DevilFan??...staggering,mind shattering idiocy and willing ignorance.
is vanzack actually a saint??...his patience in explaining just about the simplest possible thing on the face of the planet over and overc again was other-wordly.
why the heck are so many dudes banned from the earlier days of the thread??
 
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Posted: #629

Trying to explain a hedge to a non gambler is ridiculous... they always will say don’t hedge, cuz they don’t gamble so they don’t lose. My situation, 4 teamer, 3for 4 so far... 12.70 to win 170... if I hedge parlay ticket with a bet of 87.30 on  other team not on my parlay, I’ll either win 143 or the parlay of 170. Now you subtract the amount bet (100). So on one side i either win 170 or lose 12.70 or the other side guaranteed WIN 43 or 70.  I always like the guaranteed side

 
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Posted: #630

Quote Originally Posted by Whytrip7:

Trying to explain a hedge to a non gambler is ridiculous... they always will say don’t hedge, cuz they don’t gamble so they don’t lose. My situation, 4 teamer, 3for 4 so far... 12.70 to win 170... if I hedge parlay ticket with a bet of 87.30 on  other team not on my parlay, I’ll either win 143 or the parlay of 170. Now you subtract the amount bet (100). So on one side i either win 170 or lose 12.70 or the other side guaranteed WIN 43 or 70.  I always like the guaranteed side

The people who tell you not to hedge are the people who will tell you to never bet a parlay in the first place. If you are serious about making money on parlays in the long run, you hedge. If you're a really good capper, you'll always make money with hedging. If you're not a really good capper, you definitely shouldn't be playing parlays except for some longshot fun in which case, by all means, let it ride. I've been betting parlays since grade school and when introduced to hedging, they became a legitimate investment.

R.I.P. #94 MARSHAWN KNEELAND - DC4L
 
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Posted: #631

Let me enlighten you. This is the TRUTH about hedging.

When you hedge, just as with any bet, you are either making an ev+ bet, or an ev- bet. It is on very rare ocassions that you will be making an ev+ hedge bet, since usually the hedging bet will be inversely related to your initial bet. So only when the lines have shifted and you have an arbitrage opportunity, can both bets be EV+. If you are making an EV+ bet, then the bet is correct, it is evident that you should be betting it. Period. That is what we live for... finding value. 

Now, the issue or what most people call "hedging" relates to making an EV- bet to mitigate risk. This is not EV+, and we know it, but there is one reason, and one reason only to make such bet: 

WHEN WHAT WE HAVE AT STAKE WITH OUR INITIAL BET IS VERY SIGNIFICANT FOR US IN TERMS OF OUR BANKROLL. In other words, the sum that we would have at stake is a game-changer for us. If you have a parlay, missing only one final bet, that will represent cashing 30% of your bankroll, then yes... you could consider hedging. In the long term it is not the adviseable option, but as it is now, go for it. 

Now, the real question here would be, why the hell are you parlaying for such sums that you are not comfortable with and will lead you to make ev- bets to mitigate your risk? 

 

In summary, so that you can go and spread the gospel... HEDGING IN MOST CASES IS NOT AN EV+ MOVE. You guys are absolutely wrong if you think that the true professional sportsbettors (not gamblers) making a living out of this, are hedging all the time. 

The last time I hedged was on an NBA game where I had about 8 bets of the game going under. All of them were practically bagged but there was a chance of overtime. I hedged betting live, with 4 mins remaining, that the game would go to OT, but was fully aware that it was not the EV+ move. 

p.s. for fuck´s sake, don´t parlay if you will chicken out once you´ve hit 7 of 8 (actually, never parlay unless there is a good reason to do it, which is not the inmense paycheck Id get if I hit).

The Truth

 
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Posted: #632
bump,,,,   my favorite front page 

 on  one of the best threads in Covers history that addresses an actual gambling issue/stratagy.
 
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Posted: #633
Be the Hammer Not the Nail
 
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Posted: #634
StumpTownStu, you said, "My situation, 4 teamer, 3 for 4 so far..." So my question is, why did you play that four leg parlay, with one late game, in the first place? Didn't you read this thread? If you are in a position to hedge, you've already made a fundamental error. You should have left that last leg off the ticket completely. Then you wouldn't have to hedge. You could take all of your winnings from the winning three-let ticket, or any part of it, and put it on that late game.
 
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Posted: #635
HEDGING 101

MAKE SURE YOUR LAST GAME ON ANY PARLAY IS THE LATEST DATE TIME PLAY ON THE CARD

IT DOESN'T MATTER YOUR OPINION ON THE LAST GAME, BUT TRY TO CHOSE THE ONE WITH THE LINE HAS A CHANCE TO MOVE IN THE DIRECTION IN YOUR FAVOR.

.example minus 4 plus 7, win both ways
 
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Posted: #636

bookies love when u bet both sides of the same game an_burn_moneyan_shake

j
 
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Posted: #637
Van very dumb analysis here. Good lord.

If I’m on the last leg of a 7 team parlay that will pay me $50,000 if team X covers and $0.00 if team Y covers. You can rest assured I will guarantee myself at least 25 racks instead of the high probability of winning $0.00.


.
 
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Posted: #638
Quote Originally Posted by SukMyVickNoRomo:

at the end of the day PARLAYS in general are for SUCKERS.. the best bet is 1 game per card nothing more and nothing less..... i doubt that the "big time" sharps even comment or even go on these forums but if they did they will tell you the same...PARLAYS are for losers or soccer moms trying to get a high off there 25 buck card... chow.

AND THIS IS WHAT I ALWAYS VALUED AS TRUTH, BOOKS LOVE PAYLAYS, BUT IF YOU GOT TO, STAGE THE TIMES, BE A REAL GAMBLER AND PLAY THE OPPOSITE EVERY GAME, IF YOU LOSE YOUR STILL IN THE PARLAY

 
 
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Posted: #639
If you're on the last leg of a 7-team parlay, then you didn't bet the parlay properly in the first place. If you are going to hedge, then you should have just chosen a 6-team parlay. If so, now you wouldn't have to hedge at all. "If you are in a position to hedge, you've already made a fundamental error."
 
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Posted: #640
Quote Originally Posted by ActionMagnet:

Van very dumb analysis here. Good lord.

If I’m on the last leg of a 7 team parlay that will pay me $50,000 if team X covers and $0.00 if team Y covers. You can rest assured I will guarantee myself at least 25 racks instead of the high probability of winning $0.00.


.

You miss the point by a mile.

Leave the last game off and now you have your profit already, and you can wager as much, or as little as you desire on the final game.  

Mathematically speaking, hedging is a -EV move, almost always.  Obviously on a potential big score most gamblers are going to take a guaranteed profit, but that does not make it a +EV move long term. 
 
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Posted: #641
Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:

If you're on the last leg of a 7-team parlay, then you didn't bet the parlay properly in the first place. If you are going to hedge, then you should have just chosen a 6-team parlay. If so, now you wouldn't have to hedge at all. "If you are in a position to hedge, you've already made a fundamental error."

 
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Posted: #642

Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:

Quote Originally Posted by ActionMagnet:

Van very dumb analysis here. Good lord.If I’m on the last leg of a 7 team parlay that will pay me $50,000 if team X covers and $0.00 if team Y covers. You can rest assured I will guarantee myself at least 25 racks instead of the high probability of winning $0.00..
You miss the point by a mile.Leave the last game off and now you have your profit already, and you can wager as much, or as little as you desire on the final game.  Mathematically speaking, hedging is a -EV move, almost always.  Obviously on a potential big score most gamblers are going to take a guaranteed profit, but that does not make it a +EV move long term.

 

 

an_lightBINGO!!peace_5an_lightvanzack makes a lot of sense mathematically if you read his Comment thoroughlypeace_5new_closecall

What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
 
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Posted: #643
Ummmmmmmm easy there guys, lol.
This would only ever apply if the final game of the parlay has the point spread.  
It is an entirely differnt ballgame when it is a ML parlay.
The last game of the parlay could also leave you a middling possibility.
For instance the last game in your parlay has TB ML that was locked in.  Now you can take A Giants bet at +5.5 and hit both the parlay and the hedge.
Did i miss something here? I have had a few. 
 
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Posted: #644
I was googling on my phone and came upon this thread and had to grab my laptop to chime in. 

I am in Vegas and have a 10 team half point parlay with 9 in the bag and only need SF-3.5 for $1,600 on a $2 bet. 

The story how I got the ticket is unbelievable also if anyone cares to hear it. Gonna throw a few hundred on CLE +5 maybe even take CLE+11.5 @ -260?? 

only problem is once I won the first 7 games yesterday morning I had GB,IND and SF remaining. I got scared and fired $100 on DALLAS lost that, fired another $115 on KC lost that so now im almost forced to hedge CLE tonight to get that $200 back...its quite the situation Ill be at Gold Coast watching tonight!!!
 
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Posted: #645

Bump by request.

 
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Posted: #646

no matter how many years go by we are still inundated with threads asking about hedging week after week after week..wonder if this thread can be permanently stuck on the main front page here..

 
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Posted: #647

Hilarious thread. It’s those who know what they’re talking about and those who don’t understand maths

The OP explained THIRTEEN years ago using irrefutable maths why buying out of your parlay is a losing long term strategy. It’s maths. Fact. Your isolated example of when you bought out and the last leg lost doesn’t change that.

It is the equivalent of saying it’s cold today so there is no global warming

 
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Posted: #648

Quote Originally Posted by undefined:

Let me enlighten you. This is the TRUTH about hedging. When you hedge, just as with any bet, you are either making an ev+ bet, or an ev- bet. It is on very rare ocassions that you will be making an ev+ hedge bet, since usually the hedging bet will be inversely related to your initial bet. So only when the lines have shifted and you have an arbitrage opportunity, can both bets be EV+. If you are making an EV+ bet, then the bet is correct, it is evident that you should be betting it. Period. That is what we live for... finding value.  Now, the issue or what most people call "hedging" relates to making an EV- bet to mitigate risk. This is not EV+, and we know it, but there is one reason, and one reason only to make such bet:  WHEN WHAT WE HAVE AT STAKE WITH OUR INITIAL BET IS VERY SIGNIFICANT FOR US IN TERMS OF OUR BANKROLL. In other words, the sum that we would have at stake is a game-changer for us. If you have a parlay, missing only one final bet, that will represent cashing 30% of your bankroll, then yes... you could consider hedging. In the long term it is not the adviseable option, but as it is now, go for it.  Now, the real question here would be, why the hell are you parlaying for such sums that you are not comfortable with and will lead you to make ev- bets to mitigate your risk?    In summary, so that you can go and spread the gospel... HEDGING IN MOST CASES IS NOT AN EV+ MOVE. You guys are absolutely wrong if you think that the true professional sportsbettors (not gamblers) making a living out of this, are hedging all the time.  The last time I hedged was on an NBA game where I had about 8 bets of the game going under. All of them were practically bagged but there was a chance of overtime. I hedged betting live, with 4 mins remaining, that the game would go to OT, but was fully aware that it was not the EV+ move.  p.s. for fuck´s sake, don´t parlay if you will chicken out once you´ve hit 7 of 8 (actually, never parlay unless there is a good reason to do it, which is not the inmense paycheck Id get if I hit). The Truth
Guys thanks for bumping this. It just confirmed to me how much of a genius I was one year ago, and how much of a genius I still am. 

 

 
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Posted: #649

One of the most interesting thing about this thread is the amount of banned posters in it.

an_roll_laugh

 
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Posted: #650

Quote Originally Posted by undefined:

One of the most interesting thing about this thread is the amount of banned posters in it.

 

peace_5

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