I agree - and I have come to like you since this thread - but I sincerely hope you arent doing this anymore:
"Alot of time I will put together a bullshit parlay with a late game in there just case I hit the early ones, I can hedge out and guarantee $"
about everything
Dude - I read this at least 5 times and think I understand what you are saying - although it is very hard to read and understand. First off, turn your caps off.
This is what I think you are doing:
Betting a 2 team parlay, betting the first team straight, then betting the opposite team of the second game straight.
I really dont want to waste much time on this - but if that is the case - you are a moron and your system is quite possibly the dumbest thing I have ever heard. Essentially, you are doing what hedgers do - except you hedge before the games even start.
What is the point of betting both sides of the second game?
I will give you a chance to clarify your post and strategy if I misunderstood - but on the surface it sounds like you have concocted a sure recipe for giving away money.
Yep, you just confirmed it. You are the dumbest person in this thread, and that is saying quite a bit.
After close to 400 posts, you are the first person who suggests hedging BEFORE any games even start. This is the height of douchebaggery.
Congratulations, and may God have mercy on your soul.
So in summary here are the expected values in this situation:
1. Hedging 424
2. Don’t hedge 500
3. Leave the last game off of the parlay 600
Hedging is clearly the worst alternative unless something has fundamentally changed such as the line, injuries, weather, or your financial situation has created utility that you cant pass up. But if you are saying to yourself before you bet the parlay that you are going to hedge the last game –
GL
I think this is why it's hard for you to understand vanzack. And btw, thank you for these types of threads, i learned some things, and you've reiterated some things i already knew so that i may apply them to my sports wagering to give me a better shot at winning.
My theory on gamblers, by the numberss, not by the money.
A. Pro's, i'm sure that less than 5% of people that put down sports wagers are professionals. It's probably closer to 1%.
B. Semi- structured amatuers. I'd guess they make up about 10% of gamblers. There's a handful of them on covers
C. The rest, would be at least 85% of all potential sports wagerers. They don't particularly care about the math of it, they just want to win. They will bet on anything and everything at any terrible price, just because they want to bet and they think they can win. They don't care to see that the odds are against them, and they can document their losses, and still think " this is my week", "i'm gonna make a run". They are constantly chasing their tail, and you can show them the math and the hole they dig themselves, and they will steal your shovel to get started. For them, to offset some losses, and get a guaranteed win, is rare, so they put a higher price tag on ANY win. Their financial state is constantly changing, which is why you can tell them that they're stealing from themselves and they tell you that they don't care.
Hedging
Parlays
Casinos, lottery, there's plenty of people out there ready to make a bad bet. For them, it's 'just gambling', and they are happy to lose
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