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To hedge or not to hedge, here is the math and why hedging is a bad idea....

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Legend
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Posted: #426

Quote Originally Posted by Jon100:



Math is wrong here.

1. 1696
2. 1800


Strike three, you're out.

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Captain
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Posted: #427
 
Prospect
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Posted: #428

A+++ thread, amazing it took so long to explain basic EV, im guessing most of you dont play poker..

 

 
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Posted: #429
I put it as succinctly as I could.  We are talking about one bet here guys - not long-term, not "maximize your profits" over years and years of gambling, not 1000's after 1000's of wagers.  One wager here guys - one wager.

You are telling me you would risk 100 to win 1000 instead of taking 424 with no risk?  Is that seriously what you are saying?   If so, you guys truly are degenerate gamblers.
 
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Posted: #430


OK OK you win - I'll concede that you "let it ride" guys are way smarter than me, that I am a moron, that I need to go back to college, that you are right and I am wrong, that you are a genius and I am "stupid", that math is on your side, etc., etc., etc....but, I am still up over 34 units this year in MLB, and your guy lana is up 27 units.  So, I'll take my stupid, no-math-having, need-to-go-back-to-college money to the bank.  You keep being "right" and I'll keep taking the sure money.




 
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Posted: #431
I am still up over 34 units this year in MLB, and your guy lana is up 27 units.

Is this necessary? You felt obligated to make this a personal vendetta? Does taking shots like this make you feel better? Didn't you once come into my thread asking for help and I tried to oblige as best I could? Bite the hand that feeds, huh -- very professional. On top of insisting that 2+2=5, you are showing your other true colors here and it is ugly.

And of course, since you are an adamant believer that 2+2=5, of course you would lie about my units won for the year. It's 30.81, not 27. You are a tailer, I am a capper. What does that say in itself?
 
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Posted: #432
quote me where I said 2+2=5, please.
 
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Posted: #433

It cracks me up when you guys say things like "If you understand mathematical theory and want to maximize profits, then you will never hedge."  and then get offended when I point out that hedging has made me more money than you, LOL
 
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Posted: #434
Would any sportsbettor ever do the following:
 
1) Place a $100 6-1 3-team parlay
2) Win the parlay
3) Turn around and bet $330 on either side of the next game that night
 
Sounds assinine, right?  Well that bet is NOT NEARLY as brutal as someone that places a 10-1 4-team parlay, knowing that they'll hedge the final game if its still alive.  At least with the $330/$330, you're only eating $30 of your winnings.  When you hedge a potential $1000 4-team parlay, you're not just betting -110 on either side.  Because of the already reduced true odds for the 4-teamer, you're playing a ridiculous -125/-125 on either side for that fourth game in step 3 above after winning the 3-teamer.  And it only gets worse as you add more teams to the parlay and hedge that last game.
 
The ignorance of the math of sportsbetting will bite you in the ass every time.
 
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Posted: #435
Quote Originally Posted by WendysRox:

quote me where I said 2+2=5, please.


It's a figure of speech not to be taken literally. You are denser than a Redwood tree.
 
Legend
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Posted: #436
Quote Originally Posted by totalguy:

Would any sportsbettor ever do the following:
 
1) Place a $100 6-1 3-team parlay
2) Win the parlay
3) Turn around and bet $330 on either side of the next game that night
 
Sounds assinine, right?  Well that bet is NOT NEARLY as brutal as someone that places a 10-1 4-team parlay, knowing that they'll hedge the final game if its still alive.  At least with the $330/$330, you're only eating $30 of your winnings.  When you hedge a potential $1000 4-team parlay, you're not just betting -110 on either side.  Because of the already reduced true odds for the 4-teamer, you're playing a ridiculous -125/-125 on either side for that fourth game in step 3 above after winning the 3-teamer.  And it only gets worse as you add more teams to the parlay and hedge that last game.
 
The ignorance of the math of sportsbetting will bite you in the ass every time.

BINGO

For me, this thread has been a study in just how many people who gamble have absolutely no idea what they are doing, and when presented with step by step proof of the folly, they deny it and make anecdotal claims like "I am up 34 units...." without ever thinking that if they didnt hedge they would be able to say "I am up 40 units..."

This moron is so proud he is up, but constantly fails to realize he would be up MORE if he didnt hedge.  I cant scream it any louder.

And people wonder why the house always wins....

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Posted: #437
And the most important point of this thread, which might be lost because it is 300 posts ago and 10 months ago, is:
 
If you are in the position to hedge, you have already made a fundamental error.
 
Before you comment, reread that sentence.  Think about that sentence.
 
Only a dumbass puts himself in the position to hedge, and only an absolute fucking moron not only puts himself in the position to hedge, but actually hedges.
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Posted: #438


gotta love this thread
 
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Posted: #439

Quote Originally Posted by WendysRox:



gotta love this thread

Way to avoid this:

they deny it and make anecdotal claims like "I am up 34 units...." without ever thinking that if they didnt hedge they would be able to say "I am up 40 units..."

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Posted: #440

C. The rest, would be at least 85% of all potential sports wagerers. They don't particularly care about the math of it,  they just want to win. They will bet on anything and everything at any terrible price, just because they want to bet and they think they can win. They don't care to see that the odds are against them, and they can document their losses, and still think " this is my week", "i'm gonna make a run".  They are constantly chasing their tail, and you can show them the math and the hole they dig themselves, and they will steal your shovel to get started. For them, to offset some losses, and get a guaranteed win, is rare, so they put a higher price tag on ANY win. Their financial state is constantly changing, which is why you can tell them that they're stealing from themselves and they tell you that they don't care.

Hedging

 

I guess it's closer to 95%. totalguy, i wonder if these guys read it put that way, and STILL disagree.  I was scrolling down to try and use an analogy myself, but if someone were to read all the facts presented here, and still disagree, well then you're right, they shouldn't be gambling

 
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Posted: #441

Way to avoid this:

they deny it and make anecdotal claims like "I am up 34 units...." without ever thinking that if they didnt hedge they would be able to say "I am up 40 units..."


...or I would be able to say, "How come I've lost the last game of a parlay 1,209,566 times in a row?  Why didn't that last team hit 50% like it was 'SUPPOSED' to do."

 
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Posted: #442
To hedge or not to hedge that is the question........
 
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Posted: #443

Each hedging situation is different.Like I would definitly hedge if I HAD A MIDDLE AND COULD WIN BOTH BETS!Like -3 and +4.5.Then I would do it for sure.

 

 
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Posted: #444
i say that hedgeing a game could give u a possible win . u cant alwayz pick winners so sometime hedgin can make a diff... all up to you and how ya see it..
 
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Posted: #445
but the again u should just stick your bet out and now go against your first instinct..
 
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Posted: #446
but the again u should just stick your bet out and now go against your first instinct..
 
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Posted: #447
        

I can't believe you guys bumped this thread.  I was content with the idea that it was so deep in the forum history that it would not resurface until next year  when vanzack and lanastasis finally apologized to me for being wrong.   JUST KIDDING - don't bash me all over again, my ego is just starting to heal from the last time! 


 
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Posted: #448
Great  thread,,,,  very  amusing....
 
 
May  I  be  perhaps  the  only  one  to  point  out that  the  whole  subject  is  fucked  up  because  you  should nt  be  doing  parlays  in  the  first place.
 
 
Original example:
 
100 bucks on a  4 team  parlay  to  win  1000 bucks.
 
 
instead......
take  that  100 bucks and win  1 bet .... 
 
you  now  have  200  bucks  to  put  on a  second  bet   and  win  that bet....
 
 ... so  you  now  have  400  bucks   take  that 400  and  put  it  on  the  Atl  Braves  and if  they  win, you  will have  800  bucks ....
 
Take  the  800  and  put it  on another  winner and  you  end  the  scenario   after   4  straight  wins  with
1600  bucks in your  pocket 
 
......  versus  the  1000 ( or  1100)  you win  in that  parlay.
 
 
 
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Posted: #449
exactly.
 
teasers and parlays are for suckers.
 
futures (unless the lines are wrong) are also for suckers.
 
the books know this and have EVERY SINGLE math edge going for them.
 
i can see hedging a full game bet with a smaller 2H bet, only if it leaves you the shot at a middle.  nothing sweeter than putting a middle down on these gd f-heads.
 
the deal is this.....straight bets only with no chalk higher than -110.  and forget the big gap dog moneylines----another sucker bet.  even if you win you're getting totally reamed up the ying on the "dog moneyline" of +300, when the comeback is farking "-375."  you see this all the time in football.
 
the books are here for one reason and one reason only.....to take the gambler's money.  -110 straight bets is the way to go.
 
 
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Posted: #450
Well said,,,,    parlays are  no  more  than  string  bets.  and  its  a  cheap way for  a small  timer to  imagine  big  winnings.   He  would  have  made  the  same amount  if  he  had  bet  " all in"  on  consecutive  bets.   which is  kind of a  stupid way  to bet.
 
 
For a  thread  that  wants  to  prove  everything with  mathematical precision,,  there  is a  glaring  fault  in  the  original  example.....
 

Option 1: Bet a 4 team parlay at 10-1. Bet 100, win 1,000.

Option 2: Bet a 3 team parlay at 6-1, bet all proceeds straight up on Monday team. Bet 100, win 1,336.

Option 2 makes you MUCH more money (1,336 vs 1,000) on your 100 dollar bet. This is a no brainer.

 
  you  cant  compare a  10-1  4 team parlay  with a  6-1 3 team parlay.....     That   10-1   4 teamer would  have  only  been a  5-1  if  it  had  been  limited to  three.
 
 
If  the  guy  had  done  the  3 teamer for  100 to  win 500 ,  he  would  have  600 bucks ......  Same  guy  betting  3 consecutive
-122 faves   bets  would   have  602 (502 plus  original  100)
 
Whether  he  bets  a  fourth  bet   on  Sunday  night  or  Monday night ,,,,  his  parlay  and  his  consecutive betting system  will  win  him  the  same  amount of   fun tickets.... 
 
4 team   10-1  parlay       1000 plus  100  =   1100
or
4 consecutive -122  faves                       =    1100 
 
 
 
The   question  of  hedging  isnt  the  stupid  part. 
The  stupid  part is   betting parlays. 
 
But  if  you  were  in  a  4 team  10-1  parlay   and  you  had  hit  the  first  three.    You  would  be  looking  to  protect  your  original 100 plus 500 of  winnings.     You  lay  out  550 opposite  yourself    and  if  you  win  your  original  parlay  you  have  450 extra  bucks to  go  celebrate.  ( you've  just  paid the man  50  bucks to walk  away)  If  you lose  the  parlay and  win  the  hedge ,  you walk away  with  450 extra  bucks  to  go  celebrate.
 
But  the  real  point is if  you  had  just  bet   the  same  odds as  you  had  picked  in the parlay   and  won  consecutively....  you  would  have 500 extra  bucks  to  go  celebrate.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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