The New York Jets 2015

Always a pleasure reading your work Summa.

And there is a lot of work and quality info in this thread.

I wanted to add to it.

Look at the 2015 Schedule:

https://www.newyorkjets.com/schedule/season-schedule.html

The out of division games are positively mouthwatering in comparison to last year:

Redskins, Raiders, Jaguars, Titans (the 4 worst of the worst in the NFL last year). Home or away, all those games are 'winnable', even for the Jets.

Vs. The Giants (which is 'at' the Giants - i.e. no travel and the Jets stay in their own locker room) - A huge rivalry game the Jets will definitely show up for against the Giants.

vs. a rebuilding Browns team, that better, comes at home in a crucial Week one debut for the Bowles (we both know the Jets will not come out flat in that game with that taskmaster).

3 games that they will likely lose home or away (so it's better two are away) - @Cowboys, @ Colts, Eagles at home.

Wow. Love the schedule.

Compare this to some of last year's out of division games:

@Green Bay

Vs. Lions

@ Chargers

Vs. Broncos

@ Chiefs

Vs. Steelers

@ Vikings, Titans, Raiders

Not only did they have a lame duck coach, an incompetent GM who left huge amounts of cap space unspent and crucial holes all over the team's map, one of the worst secondaries I've ever seen in my lifetime (and one that was, worse, battered by injuries and AWOL players), a QB that was being pulled and put back in continually shaking his already fragile confidence, a backup QB who literally was not ready to play in not one but two games (Chargers, Bills) resulting in crushing losses, but they had a BRUTAL out of division schedule too!

 

Put that all together and 4-12 seems quite reasonable and a better record is on the horizon!

*Suuma

The value is definitely there.

It's a very close division, maybe the best in the NFL next season. Dolphins, Bills and the Jets are dependent on their QB play.

Their defenses are stacked but last season these three teams couldn't bring a decent YPPA (including sacks) on the table - all three teams finished in the bottom-8 in that category. And their "QB sacked percentage" was bottom-half.

Take the Dolphins for example. Earthwake praises the development of Ryan Tannehill, and he is right, no doubt. But in efficiency on a single down, the Fins as a team weren't good. The Dolphins finished #26 in YPPA with 6.3. And that's the most important stat in the NFL. For example: In losses against the Bills and Chiefs, Ryan Tannehill had a YPPA without sacks of below 5. If you include sacks and look at the net-YPPA, it's even worse. To get a comparison, the Jets had an average of 5.9 YPPA on the season.

The Fins did a great job at upgrading their receiving corps, but so did the Jets and Bills with their defense. As much as I like the Fins next season, it's gonna be difficult in division games.

And the Bills ? I would like to see Matt Cassel or E.J. Manuel against the Jets defense.

So I think if the Jets get something good of their QB play and their defense is dominant in division games, I like their chances to play for the division title.

Very good schedule analysis, I agree with it. I also love their schedule.

In terms of records of the past season, the Jets have the 18th-strongest overall at 0.488 and the 27th-strongest home schedule.

In 2014, the Jets had the 2nd-worst schedule overall at 0.543 !!!

I think the Redskins game will present a letdown spot for the Jets if they start good into the season. It's after their bye week and they've got the Patriots in their next game. If they start good, like 3-1, they will have nothing in mind but the Patriots. There can be decent value on the Skins spread.

I agree on the Cowboys game. IMO the biggest problem is that the game is in week 15. I think the Jets match up very well with the Cowboys on paper at this point, but the Cowboys did very well in the off-season (some will think I am crazy, but I can explain) and their young defensive pieces will play a lot better in the second half of the season plus Hardy will join them in week 11.

Actually, I am by no means afraid of the Eagles.

When you say you need a great passing game to win a SB really ? look at Brady in the SB the only passes he threw over 10 yards in the air he was picked off one was in the Red Zone .

Read: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=102054154&page=1

"NE passing offense vs. SEA passing defense

This is the key matchup to win this game for any team. NE is one of those teams where you don’t need to look at yards per pass attempt. They ran an offense that is set up to execute. Short routes, screen passes and medium-ranged passes make this offense so variable. This offense only struggled when they face big time pressure from the opposite d-line like against KC, NYJ or BUF (2^nd game). But even against other strong d-lines they had an easy game like Detroit, Denver, Baltimore. Pass defense starts at the d-line. How about the Seattle d-line ? That’s their only weakness. They can’t generate a decent pass rush and can’t pressure QBs. On top of that the injuries of Mebane and Hill are hurting them. Their d-line is obviously lacking some depth, that could be a key factor in the 2^nd quarter. Even the Raiders rallied to score 21 points in the 2^nd half. Raiders have a very good o-line, same as the Patriots. Patriots give up just 4.4 sacks per 100 plays, that’s good for 2^nd in the league. The best team in that category ? The Denver Broncos who were able to start a comeback late in week 2 at Seattle. Some other good o-lines Seattle faced ? Dallas, NYG & GB. NYG scored 17 points but should really have 24 points (tipped INT in the end zone by OBJ). Seattle gave up an average of 22.6 points when they faced a good o-line. Carolina are not on top of good o-lines over the season but their o-line has been one of the best lately and they as well almost dropped 24 points on the Hawks. Tom Brady will have a field day. They will add a short route to most passing plays to take away the Seattle blitzes. Even the Legion of Boom will look like an average defense because of these variable passing plays. San Diego hat an equal gameplan like NE has everytime: Short routes and don’t let the LOB come too close. Rivers burned them heavily and Gates went for 7 catches, 96 yards and 3 TDs. Wait to see what Gronk will do. Edge: New England"

I could write a novel. Maybe start a thread soon.

Short version: You need a potent passing game and a good passing defense to win many games and/or Super Bowls. And passing defense starts at the d-line. You will hardly find exeptions - sometimes either one is enough to make the playoffs. I have got every mathematical answer and example you could ask for.

Sure, you need also a ball control offense. But how do you control the ball ? By getting first downs. How do you do it ? By getting a certain amount of yards per play. And that's what a good passing game on a single down is for. Running the ball means almost nothing but supporting the passing game on most teams. That's why the Cowboys did everything right in keeping Dez Bryant and not keeping DeMarco Murray.

Just take a look at the past 10 playoffs and Super Bowls and look

1) which teams got into the playoffs and what their YPPA during the season on both sides of the ball was
2) which teams won/made the Super Bowl and how they did in YPPA on both sides of the ball during the playoffs

The pattern is obvious.

Why did the Seahawks made b2b trips to the Super Bowl ? Because of beastmode ? No. He was just a supporter. It was because of Russel Wilson's play action ability and their passing defense. The Seahawks had the 4th best passing offense in 2013 and the 6th best in 2014. On defense they ranked 1st and 2nd against the pass in the last two years.

Lets face it New England would have lost for the 3rd straight time in SB if  Seattle  just runs the ball in and both Dallas and Greenbay were a better team's  than Seattle

Let's face it, that laughable onside-kick-recovery against the Packers and a circus-catch were the reasons the Seahawks were in that situation to chose between a run and a quick slant:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fKOLqM-LnA0

How many times do you catch that ball? One out of hundred? It was very well defended.

NE played a very good game and took away the Seahawks' biggest strength (passing D) with a variable passing gameplan and nice schemes while the Seahawks couldn't get any pressure on Brady.

But I guess it's a never ending discussion until the 2015 season begins.

Seattle coudn't get pressure on Brady cause all he did was throw screen passes in the 2nd half  like i said before the only passes he threw over 10 yards were picked off .it's not a great passing game , it's a ball control system   keep the ball get first downs and get the defense worn out in the 4th quarter  that's good enough to win in the NFL it's not great football and neither are these players 

That would be dumb to trade Wilkerson if that rumor is true. Other wise the Jets are looking solid in all fronts. They can definitely win 7 or 8 games this season.

Suuma made a bet on the Jets to win the AFC East 9-1....then today the AFC East is off the board on Betonline......guess Tom Brady is gonna miss a couple of games maybe??

This is so much wrong. Maybe you had the Seahawks on your betting ticket. Please rewatch the game and rewatch the Seahawks' playoff games. The Hawks couldn't get any pressure on Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers as well. They had a combined 4 sacks during their three playoff games. The reason Brady threw so many short passes is because it was their gameplan to take away the mighty Seahawks secondary. The Patriots struggled the most when they faced a big time pass rush - Fins game 1, KC, Jets 2x etc.

There is absolutely no way they are gonna trade Wilkerson unless someone offers a really big package. But I can't see that.

The Jets have a monstrous d-line, you can never have enough depth on that position. This is gonna be very important in fourth quarters.

That would be awesome if he misses a couple of games. But will the NFL do that ? Don't know.

Brady suspension

Jags #1 pick down for the season with an ACL (one of the Jets out of conference games).

This can only help the Jets! (first more so than the second)

Rumor has it that Brady will get 6/8 games. Jets play pats in week 7! I doubt it will be 8 games but I'll hold out hope!

*out of division games

Wanted to see Fowler this season but as you said, it helps the Jets.

Patriots have Colts on SNF in wk6 and Fins on TNF in wk8. To merchandise a Brady-comeback the right way, it will be one of those games if the rumors are true. So at 6-8 weeks, it will be 7 weeks to get him the comeback on TNF at home against the Fins.

In this situation, the Jets have one Brady-free game. They were very close to beating him last season in both games. Can you already see Jimmy Garoppolo running for his life when he faces Leonard, Mu, Sheldon and Lorenzo from the edge?

They will destroy him. And your point on beating the Pats last year, in one of their most inept years in history is not lost.

Pats have a bye week in week 4 so scratch my previous post about needing 7 weeks as you noted.

If we hear he is suspended SIX weeks, we have what we want! 

Nice Posts in here

Division is much tougher this season ...

Pats appear the only team in decline ...

Right now the Jets Over 6.5 wins looks like a decent play 

Defense looks FANTASTIC ON PAPER .. Was pissed when L Williams fell to them in the draft....

 that being said Geno Smith will need to be light years better ... If RYAN FITZ GARBAGE PLAYS , FORGET ABOUT IT

Seems like no Brady-free game. But I like the matchup, no matter if Brady or Garoppolo will start.

Brady struggles against big time d-line pressure and this time the matchup between the NE defense and NYJ offense is a whole different thing.

I guess you are completely right. On paper everything looks good except the QB position.

line just went up to -3 for week 1 

You can expect it to climb until September.