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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    The media can sometimes give it away if you understand the intent -TNF

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    Achilles1629
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    Macwestie1
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    Achilles1629
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2016 - 4:00 PM ET #1

    Capping this game.....all signs point to dallas. Even though I feel Dallas is overrated and will fall with DAK in the playoffs, they have a great offense. Their time of possession and understanding of what works within their offense has a ton to do with their record. With the ATS record and 10 wins in a row, the media may be giving this one away tonite though. Yeah, some of you say, no sh*t but I've seen this before. Media floods the forums, people take the bait, bloodbath.... I use a ton of variables when I cap and one I will go to on occasion, is the media and what they say before games, especially prime time ones. If you go on espn, nfl.com and fox, look at their front pages. It's all Dallas. There is intent there.  That's all you read about. Granted, they deserve the credit but on the road, against a hungry team who gave one away last week on national tv and the public all over Dallas (we are now north of 70% on both ats and ML for Dallas backers), I lean towards minny tonite. Just like Monday night, the data pointed solely towards Philly BUT sonething wasn't right. It was too easy to back philly. Sure getting 4 points with the best qb in the league was a gift but I feel this line isn't right either with minny. Dallas' defense is not good and if diggs is a go, with thielen, Rudolph and two backs who are decent, I like Minnesotas chance. Their o line is struggling but the gameplan to bandaid that was shown to them by Green Bay. Minny will use that tonite with getting the ball out QUICK .Earlier in the week, I was on Dallas but with the money on them after vegas has eaten it hard in Mexico city and on Monday night, I think they get it back tonite. Dallas backers are lining up thinking 3 is a gift but not so fast. Plus, throw in the fact that Zimmer isn't coaching, people thinks it's big but it's not as big as you think. Shurmur will be calling the plays and the defense will give good to go by Sparano. If anything, they may be more inspired tonite. This is minnys superbowl because if they lose they are essentially fighting an uphill battle with two teams who are knocking at the door for the division. I could very well be wrong here but I will pay a small amount to see if dallas is truly bulletproof in the REGULAR SEASON. The media is on their knees with Dallas and if there is a time to lose for them, it needs to be now rather than next week against the giants who already beat them. Is the media  coverage a huge factor in this game. Not at all but it feeds the public their fuel to back Dallas and I feelthat's been the intent with what I've read all day today. Im going with minny tonite to cover and would not be surprised if this game came down to a missed extra point or a 2 point ending. Minny covers the +3.5. GL all 
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Capping this game.....all signs point to dallas. Even though I feel Dallas is overrated and will fall with DAK in the playoffs, they have a great offense. Their time of possession and understanding of what works within their offense has a ton to do with their record. With the ATS record and 10 wins in a row, the media may be giving this one away tonite though. Yeah, some of you say, no sh*t but I've seen this before. Media floods the forums, people take the bait, bloodbath.... I use a ton of variables when I cap and one I will go to on occasion, is the media and what they say before games, especially prime time ones. If you go on espn, nfl.com and fox, look at their front pages. It's all Dallas. There is intent there.  That's all you read about. Granted, they deserve the credit but on the road, against a hungry team who gave one away last week on national tv and the public all over Dallas (we are now north of 70% on both ats and ML for Dallas backers), I lean towards minny tonite. Just like Monday night, the data pointed solely towards Philly BUT sonething wasn't right. It was too easy to back philly. Sure getting 4 points with the best qb in the league was a gift but I feel this line isn't right either with minny. Dallas' defense is not good and if diggs is a go, with thielen, Rudolph and two backs who are decent, I like Minnesotas chance. Their o line is struggling but the gameplan to bandaid that was shown to them by Green Bay. Minny will use that tonite with getting the ball out QUICK .Earlier in the week, I was on Dallas but with the money on them after vegas has eaten it hard in Mexico city and on Monday night, I think they get it back tonite. Dallas backers are lining up thinking 3 is a gift but not so fast. Plus, throw in the fact that Zimmer isn't coaching, people thinks it's big but it's not as big as you think. Shurmur will be calling the plays and the defense will give good to go by Sparano. If anything, they may be more inspired tonite. This is minnys superbowl because if they lose they are essentially fighting an uphill battle with two teams who are knocking at the door for the division. I could very well be wrong here but I will pay a small amount to see if dallas is truly bulletproof in the REGULAR SEASON. The media is on their knees with Dallas and if there is a time to lose for them, it needs to be now rather than next week against the giants who already beat them. Is the media  coverage a huge factor in this game. Not at all but it feeds the public their fuel to back Dallas and I feelthat's been the intent with what I've read all day today. Im going with minny tonite to cover and would not be surprised if this game came down to a missed extra point or a 2 point ending. Minny covers the +3.5. GL all 
     
    MaxMoneyMaker
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2016 - 4:05 PM ET #2

    You made  a smart decision IMO

    Just thinking out loud here....could you do some indentations or spaced between your writing? Not being an acehole, but its easier to read that way

    Anyways, BOL

    You might want to check out an alternate line I got at my book...

    Over/Under 19.5

    I took over 19.5 
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    You made  a smart decision IMO

    Just thinking out loud here....could you do some indentations or spaced between your writing? Not being an acehole, but its easier to read that way

    Anyways, BOL

    You might want to check out an alternate line I got at my book...

    Over/Under 19.5

    I took over 19.5 
     
    Achilles1629
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2016 - 4:18 PM ET #3

    I hear ya bro. It was sent on my phone. Strapped for time....GL amigo 
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    I hear ya bro. It was sent on my phone. Strapped for time....GL amigo 
     
    MaxMoneyMaker
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2016 - 4:27 PM ET #4

    Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

    I hear ya bro. It was sent on my phone. Strapped for time....GL amigo 


    I got ya!

    BOL 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

    I hear ya bro. It was sent on my phone. Strapped for time....GL amigo 


    I got ya!

    BOL 
     
    Macwestie1
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2016 - 4:30 PM ET #5

    Achilles
    What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
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    Achilles
     
    Achilles1629
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2016 - 4:58 PM ET #6

    Tonite and next week are both prime time road games so it's gonna be very interesting to see if the "bulletproof" Cowboys continue to dominate thus feeding into their perception as the team to beat. I'm going small tonite in that whatever the outcome, I would not be surprised. 
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    Tonite and next week are both prime time road games so it's gonna be very interesting to see if the "bulletproof" Cowboys continue to dominate thus feeding into their perception as the team to beat. I'm going small tonite in that whatever the outcome, I would not be surprised. 
     
    mac39bps
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2016 - 5:15 PM ET #7

    too long to read. like minny tho lol 
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    too long to read. like minny tho lol 
     
    jmag805
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2016 - 5:21 PM ET #8

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    Achilles1629
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2016 - 5:41 PM ET #9

    Bovada now has Minny at +4 juiced at -120. Interesting.....
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    Bovada now has Minny at +4 juiced at -120. Interesting.....
     
    Achilles1629
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2016 - 5:49 PM ET #10

    After reviewing the first half totals from this past week, of the 16 games, Vegas collected on 12 of them. Right now, the over is being bet at almost 65% by the public. Let's see if Vegas, who has taken 75% of this weeks first half total money, continues to collect. I lean under here. 
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    After reviewing the first half totals from this past week, of the 16 games, Vegas collected on 12 of them. Right now, the over is being bet at almost 65% by the public. Let's see if Vegas, who has taken 75% of this weeks first half total money, continues to collect. I lean under here. 
     
    soxfann1
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2016 - 5:54 PM ET #11

    Big dif between Green Bay Monday and Minnesota tonight QB Rodgers vs Bradford also Minnys offense line is even worse now Dallas can ignore the rush and rush the passer as Minny is one dimensional ,and its a Bad dimension can't bet on Minny in this spot but if the fix is in ,and it would have to be, you win BOL
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    Big dif between Green Bay Monday and Minnesota tonight QB Rodgers vs Bradford also Minnys offense line is even worse now Dallas can ignore the rush and rush the passer as Minny is one dimensional ,and its a Bad dimension can't bet on Minny in this spot but if the fix is in ,and it would have to be, you win BOL
     
    Sportsfixx
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2016 - 6:00 PM ET #12

    Agree with you in this spot I'm on it small
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    Agree with you in this spot I'm on it small
     
    Damaged99
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2016 - 6:43 PM ET #13

    You lost me at "the media gives it away" I will be back later to troll you. 
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    You lost me at "the media gives it away" I will be back later to troll you. 
     
    Achilles1629
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2016 - 6:51 PM ET #14

    Of course you will damaged.....quick question: any idea why Carolina was backed by over 70% in last years Super Bowl? Ya know the most highly bet game there is. Ya think the media and the obsession with cam had ANYTHING to do with that? Hmmmmm. Any correlations between Carolina last year and this years dallas team? Any?

     Yeah....the media buddy. Not every game, but with PUBLIC teams they sure can drive the line. They play a large role  in who the public backs. You, the supposed "greatest capper in here" should know that, right? 
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    Of course you will damaged.....quick question: any idea why Carolina was backed by over 70% in last years Super Bowl? Ya know the most highly bet game there is. Ya think the media and the obsession with cam had ANYTHING to do with that? Hmmmmm. Any correlations between Carolina last year and this years dallas team? Any?

     Yeah....the media buddy. Not every game, but with PUBLIC teams they sure can drive the line. They play a large role  in who the public backs. You, the supposed "greatest capper in here" should know that, right? 
     
    Metallica2467
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2016 - 7:20 PM ET #15

    BOL tonight Achilles.
    R.I.P. Legend
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    BOL tonight Achilles.
     
    wmi799
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2016 - 7:22 PM ET #16

    Nice write-up. BOL tonight
    Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
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    Nice write-up. BOL tonight
     
    Achilles1629
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2016 - 7:24 PM ET #17

    Wmi
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    Wmi
     
    Achilles1629
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2016 - 7:26 PM ET #18

    Bovada now at -130 for Minny +4. They need dallas money bad.
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    Bovada now at -130 for Minny +4. They need dallas money bad.
     
    Damaged99
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2016 - 7:33 PM ET #19

    Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

    Of course you will damaged.....quick question: any idea why Carolina was backed by over 70% in last years Super Bowl? Ya know the most highly bet game there is. Ya think the media and the obsession with cam had ANYTHING to do with that? Hmmmmm. Any correlations between Carolina last year and this years dallas team? Any?

     Yeah....the media buddy. Not every game, but with PUBLIC teams they sure can drive the line. They play a large role  in who the public backs. You, the supposed "greatest capper in here" should know that, right? 

    I think people bet the panthers because they looked indestructible last year and Denver was winning ugly. Manning was horrific and Carolina was winning games 55-3. It was the exact opposite of what happened when Seattle dismantled Denver in the super bowl. I see your point and it is a good one BUT this isn't the Super Bowl... Yet. I agree that there will be a time to fade Dallas and maybe that times tonight but I can't ride with Bradford I've made too much betting against him. 

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    Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

    Of course you will damaged.....quick question: any idea why Carolina was backed by over 70% in last years Super Bowl? Ya know the most highly bet game there is. Ya think the media and the obsession with cam had ANYTHING to do with that? Hmmmmm. Any correlations between Carolina last year and this years dallas team? Any?

     Yeah....the media buddy. Not every game, but with PUBLIC teams they sure can drive the line. They play a large role  in who the public backs. You, the supposed "greatest capper in here" should know that, right? 

    I think people bet the panthers because they looked indestructible last year and Denver was winning ugly. Manning was horrific and Carolina was winning games 55-3. It was the exact opposite of what happened when Seattle dismantled Denver in the super bowl. I see your point and it is a good one BUT this isn't the Super Bowl... Yet. I agree that there will be a time to fade Dallas and maybe that times tonight but I can't ride with Bradford I've made too much betting against him. 

     
    Achilles1629
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2016 - 7:38 PM ET #20

    Damaged, you said it. Carolina LOOKED indestructible. Doesn't Dallas LOOK that way too? And you talk of manning who at the time was a shell of himself. That caused the Carolina backers to hop on board but MORE THAN ANYTHING, it was the way cam was viewed throughout the media. He had free reign all year and up through the playoffs. People saw his cockiness and they saw the scores. Media definitely played a role in that domination of the public. How is Bradford now, not on the same level a super bowl manning? I'd argue that Bradford as crazy as it sounds, is better than that manning. This defense has been asleep the last month and. Half too and I think people are sleeping on the main tonite. Minny will be ready and I expect diggs and Rudolph to have big games when it counts the most tonite. 
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    Damaged, you said it. Carolina LOOKED indestructible. Doesn't Dallas LOOK that way too? And you talk of manning who at the time was a shell of himself. That caused the Carolina backers to hop on board but MORE THAN ANYTHING, it was the way cam was viewed throughout the media. He had free reign all year and up through the playoffs. People saw his cockiness and they saw the scores. Media definitely played a role in that domination of the public. How is Bradford now, not on the same level a super bowl manning? I'd argue that Bradford as crazy as it sounds, is better than that manning. This defense has been asleep the last month and. Half too and I think people are sleeping on the main tonite. Minny will be ready and I expect diggs and Rudolph to have big games when it counts the most tonite. 
     
    undermysac
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2016 - 7:52 PM ET #21

    GL tonight
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    GL tonight
     
    bunny24
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2016 - 7:57 PM ET #22

    So you got lucky on MNF and now you are Captain Superman?..Sit back and get ready to eat some crow...Dallas rolls quite easily my amigo
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    So you got lucky on MNF and now you are Captain Superman?..Sit back and get ready to eat some crow...Dallas rolls quite easily my amigo
     
    Achilles1629
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2016 - 8:01 PM ET #23

    You really are a clown aren't you bunny? Great entrance into this forum this week. Lucky? Take a walk bro. 
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    You really are a clown aren't you bunny? Great entrance into this forum this week. Lucky? Take a walk bro. 
     
    Achilles1629
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2016 - 10:18 PM ET #24

    This is the drive where minny has to get some points. They need to take some chances because their defense has played pretty well so far. Let's see if they can get something going here.
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    This is the drive where minny has to get some points. They need to take some chances because their defense has played pretty well so far. Let's see if they can get something going here.
     
     
    Macwestie1
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2016 - 10:20 PM ET #25

    Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

    Capping this game.....all signs point to dallas. Even though I feel Dallas is overrated and will fall with DAK in the playoffs, they have a great offense. Their time of possession and understanding of what works within their offense has a ton to do with their record. With the ATS record and 10 wins in a row, the media may be giving this one away tonite though. Yeah, some of you say, no sh*t but I've seen this before. Media floods the forums, people take the bait, bloodbath.... I use a ton of variables when I cap and one I will go to on occasion, is the media and what they say before games, especially prime time ones. If you go on espn, nfl.com and fox, look at their front pages. It's all Dallas. There is intent there.  That's all you read about. Granted, they deserve the credit but on the road, against a hungry team who gave one away last week on national tv and the public all over Dallas (we are now north of 70% on both ats and ML for Dallas backers), I lean towards minny tonite. Just like Monday night, the data pointed solely towards Philly BUT sonething wasn't right. It was too easy to back philly. Sure getting 4 points with the best qb in the league was a gift but I feel this line isn't right either with minny. Dallas' defense is not good and if diggs is a go, with thielen, Rudolph and two backs who are decent, I like Minnesotas chance. Their o line is struggling but the gameplan to bandaid that was shown to them by Green Bay. Minny will use that tonite with getting the ball out QUICK .Earlier in the week, I was on Dallas but with the money on them after vegas has eaten it hard in Mexico city and on Monday night, I think they get it back tonite. Dallas backers are lining up thinking 3 is a gift but not so fast. Plus, throw in the fact that Zimmer isn't coaching, people thinks it's big but it's not as big as you think. Shurmur will be calling the plays and the defense will give good to go by Sparano. If anything, they may be more inspired tonite. This is minnys superbowl because if they lose they are essentially fighting an uphill battle with two teams who are knocking at the door for the division. I could very well be wrong here but I will pay a small amount to see if dallas is truly bulletproof in the REGULAR SEASON. The media is on their knees with Dallas and if there is a time to lose for them, it needs to be now rather than next week against the giants who already beat them. Is the media  coverage a huge factor in this game. Not at all but it feeds the public their fuel to back Dallas and I feelthat's been the intent with what I've read all day today. Im going with minny tonite to cover and would not be surprised if this game came down to a missed extra point or a 2 point ending. Minny covers the +3.5. GL all 


    What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

    Capping this game.....all signs point to dallas. Even though I feel Dallas is overrated and will fall with DAK in the playoffs, they have a great offense. Their time of possession and understanding of what works within their offense has a ton to do with their record. With the ATS record and 10 wins in a row, the media may be giving this one away tonite though. Yeah, some of you say, no sh*t but I've seen this before. Media floods the forums, people take the bait, bloodbath.... I use a ton of variables when I cap and one I will go to on occasion, is the media and what they say before games, especially prime time ones. If you go on espn, nfl.com and fox, look at their front pages. It's all Dallas. There is intent there.  That's all you read about. Granted, they deserve the credit but on the road, against a hungry team who gave one away last week on national tv and the public all over Dallas (we are now north of 70% on both ats and ML for Dallas backers), I lean towards minny tonite. Just like Monday night, the data pointed solely towards Philly BUT sonething wasn't right. It was too easy to back philly. Sure getting 4 points with the best qb in the league was a gift but I feel this line isn't right either with minny. Dallas' defense is not good and if diggs is a go, with thielen, Rudolph and two backs who are decent, I like Minnesotas chance. Their o line is struggling but the gameplan to bandaid that was shown to them by Green Bay. Minny will use that tonite with getting the ball out QUICK .Earlier in the week, I was on Dallas but with the money on them after vegas has eaten it hard in Mexico city and on Monday night, I think they get it back tonite. Dallas backers are lining up thinking 3 is a gift but not so fast. Plus, throw in the fact that Zimmer isn't coaching, people thinks it's big but it's not as big as you think. Shurmur will be calling the plays and the defense will give good to go by Sparano. If anything, they may be more inspired tonite. This is minnys superbowl because if they lose they are essentially fighting an uphill battle with two teams who are knocking at the door for the division. I could very well be wrong here but I will pay a small amount to see if dallas is truly bulletproof in the REGULAR SEASON. The media is on their knees with Dallas and if there is a time to lose for them, it needs to be now rather than next week against the giants who already beat them. Is the media  coverage a huge factor in this game. Not at all but it feeds the public their fuel to back Dallas and I feelthat's been the intent with what I've read all day today. Im going with minny tonite to cover and would not be surprised if this game came down to a missed extra point or a 2 point ending. Minny covers the +3.5. GL all 


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