Game line at half-time is Commanders -3'......in divisional round and conference championship rounds, away dogs winning by 8-14 points at half have covered +3' for the whole game 9 times and lost 4 times, winning by 3 points exactly 3 times and losing outright by 7 points the other time.
We are rolling with the Rams as they are part of a very good situation against the spread that I mentioned earlier in my threads.
An away dog that has had a better performance against the spread compared to their present opponent in their last six games on a per game basis, in the divisional round, have gone 21-5-1 ATS on Sundays (+5.2), 14-13 straight up (-0.8).....ON Rams
Also, divisional round away dogs that have won their last three away games have gone 13-3 ATS (+6.7), 11-5 straight up (+1.4) on Sundays.......(those teams in the same situation on Saturday have only gone 5-5 ATS).......ON Rams
If the Ravens were to become away dogs tomorrow they would also fit this situation as they also have won their past three away games......as it is, away favorites in this situation have gone 1-0 SUATS.
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Keep in mind also for the conference championship games, that away teams that rush for more than 100 yards have gone 15-3 ATS (+4.78) which would bode well for the Commanders, and also for the Ravens should they get by Buffalo tomorrow. In the playoffs overall, away teams that rush for over 100 yards have gone 84-31-3 (+4.7) against the spread, 58-59 straight up, which is a 73% covering rate.....if they rush for more than 130 yards in the game in question, they cover close to 80% of the time and win 60% of the time straight up.
True.......teams that have rushed for over 180 yards in their previous in-season meeting have averaged rushing for 143 yards in the subsequent game going 4-5-1 ATS, 8-2 O/U, 3-1 ATS at home in the totality of the conference playoffs if they are off an away win win in that previous season's matchups.,....which fits both the Ravens and the Eagles.
query text.............playoffs = 1 and P:rushing yards > 180 and P:season = o:season and C and P:AW and site
[Quote: Originally Posted by spottie2935]playoffs = 1 and AD and rest<7 and o:rest > 5 and line<8 and p:points<39 and p:site = home and t:wins<15 and opo:points<32 and 15>PRSW>2
Ok, good......the only issue for this query is do we really count the Rams' win last week as a home game, as this been amazing off a home game and hitting 33% off playing an away game.
Wild card round home dogs are home dogs because these teams are not respected and as per this:
p:playoffs = 1 and p:HD and AD
fail because on the road against stiffer competition it gets harder for them to stay close. Although the Texans out-rushed the Chiefs and didnt cover the 8 or 8.5 line that was available all week up until a late line move. The Rams might have some difficulty stopping the Eagles rushing attack. It just depends on both teams mistakes, penalties and Rams time of possession. Can the Rams get an early lead that the Texans failed to do so. It kinda dictates the gameplan.
I was on the Texans and Commanders moneylines but I just have the Rams + here, and within that a smaller play. The Rams previous home dog thing scares me down.
@JFEEZEE
The website we,I use has no info on weather. That would be something to keep notes of for future games. Track it on west coast dogs ir something like that. In the other hand, talk about scarce and limited data. over 20+ years maybe only a few games. Besides these snow,wind, rain games are prone for mistakes. Who gets the bounces? Maybe having a decent amount of points matters most.
Spottie did yours on killer <40 for temp (8-0) Rams and 2-6 UN) (10-1 temp<50 and 3-8 UN) can't get things to work on the dog, as you can see from yesterday sometimes it works some time it doesn't, I felt like Jowchoo trying to copy and paste, and I just talked with Indigo999 yesterday telling him this stuff isn't going through.
playoffs = 1 and AD and rest<7 and o:rest > 5 and line<8 and p:points<39 and p:site = home and t:wins<15 and opo:points<32 and 15>PRSW>2 and temperature<40
Here is an angle for next week's conference championship games....running quarterbacks tend to perform very well on the road, as we've seen with Lamar Jackson's road record in the regular season.....Jackson obviously been not very good in the playoffs anyplace, and it is a litmus test for running quarterbacks to see how Daniels will do on the road and in general because he is Lamar II except he can throw the ball.....so far it is looking like he will be a hall of fame quarterback if he doesn't get hurt. He should be a cash cow for bettors on the road throughout his career.
Those type of quarterbacks that can't be sacked and can get yardage with their legs are unstoppable quandaries most of the time for defenses.....I would never blitz a guy like Jackson, Allen or Daniels, because if you miss him which happens almost always, there are 30 yards of empty real estate that he'll get with his legs.
Anyway, away teams in the conference championship game (Bills/Ravens, Commanders) who rush for over 100 yards in that game have gone 9-2 ATS (+5.6), 5-6 straight up.
If an away conference championship game team is off an away dog win and rushes for over 100 yards, those teams have gone 8-0 ATS (+9.6), 5-3 straight up (+2.6) and 1-7 o/u (-6.8).
We are making an assumption that our away team will rush for over 100 yards in that game.....early bird lines on the Commanders is +5.5 versus the Eagles and +1.5 versus the Rams.
On the other hand, home teams in the conference championship game who rush for less than 100 yards in the game have gone 3-7 ATS....likely for the Chiefs, possible for the Rams, and doubtful for the Eagles......if that home team rushes for over 100 yards those home teams have gone 12-7 ATS.
If both the road and home team rushes for over 100 yards the road team has gone 6-2 ATS.
The ability to run the ball for the road team is a make-or-break scenario for how road teams perform against the spread.
Here is another interesting point to consider in the conference championship games next week.
Teams with a perfect home record have gone 10-2 ATS on the road in all playoff games, which will apply if the Bills win today at home versus the Ravens, who would then go on the road to KC. They only beat the spread on average by about 3 points/game and are only 4-8 straight up.
playoffs=1 and tA(W@H)=1 and A and game type
Teams with a perfect home record on the season have gone 15-21 ATS in the playoffs at home, though they've been 5-1 if the line is -3 or less.....which fits the Bills this week and the Chiefs next week.
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