suuma's NFL week two

suma, your  work on handicapping and insight is worth the reads. but I swear we don't look at coaching enough, coaching matters all year just not in playoffs.

not just in playoffs

It was the right side to play on.

Thats why its called gambling, can;t win them all.

Chin up, its only Thursday night of week 2.

I also had this game circled but I can't pull the trigger. If one guy can beat a good defense, it's Tom Brady. He looked like he is on a mission. Also Rex Ryan hates the Pats so much that I have to question his objectivity during the game. Will just stay away.

I do get up for the games. Not every week though. Gonna travel to London for the Jets/Dolphins game

Good luck to you!!

KC was up 14-7 with receiving the ball in the second half - you just don't call the second pass play with Alex Smith as your QB. Run down the clock and try to maybe sneak out some field position for a FG with a few seconds left.

KC was up 24-17 and contained PM for the whole game by attacking his achilles: pass rush on that weak offensive line. He had only one successful drive until late in the fourth. Peyton Manning with over 2 minutes on the clock and no pressure is 80% a touchdown. So you gonna pressure him like you did all game long and force him to beat you under pressure. Not pressuring him and lining up a rookie CB man-to-man on Demariyus Thomas when PM has time and momentum - bad idea. Even though Marcus Peters has had a solid game.

You got beat, score is 24-24. You failed by trying to score right before halftime, so what you do? You kneel down to get into a break because the opposite team has gained momentum and try to get another shot in the overtime.

This was flat out terrible coaching. The Chiefs were the better team, especially when holding the Broncos to just 4.3 yards per play.

Those are tough beats, indeed, BB. Hope you will be on the lucky side soon.

Luck is not a beast when playing against good coverage defenses. The Jets didn't show anything against the Browns because they didn't have to.

Hey Summa,

I appreciate all of your input.  You seem to know a ton about the players and the game.

Earlier last week, you mentioned that Indy is a good matchup for the jets??? 

Now you are saying Jets straight up?   Just wondering why ...  Thx.

SUUMA, Smith didn't even see Kelce in the end zone wide open. The possession turned into a T.O. In fact, Smith missed Kelce twice 

Either you got me wrong or my statement was a bit of a misunderstanding. I meant to say the Jets match up very well with the Colts. I have this game circled since a few months. Will have a write-up on Monday, still focusing on Sunday.

I get your point but the Broncos looked worse than that "bad football" by the Chiefs.

KC -3 was absolutely the right play dispite the outcome. Those kind of beats are like getting stunned by a right hook early in a fight, you scrap it up and keep going

I was on KC as well, but Football is four quarters of play and they didn't do that. What should of or could of happened doesn't matter. It's about what actually happens. Denver stepped up and KC bowed out. 

Suuma, enjoy the writeups and much respect to you and your style. But just because your analysis was correct for certain points that you made, does not mean that it was the "right" side . Apart from the first quarter and part of the 2nd, anybody who had either kc or the under had to know that the cover was in question from that point. IMO, if a team is pretty much covering or 1 score away from the cover (aside from when it was 14-0), and for almost the whole game, this is not the "right" side. It is also crazy for people to discredit Peyton based off 1 game vs a Ravens defense they clearly werent game planned for.  For Peyton to have as bad of a game as he did last week, would be very very unlikely.  Before his td pass, he was in the longest drought of his career without throwing a TD . That is obviously a trend that will not continue.  Fumbles cant be capped, but Alex Smiths shltty qb play and Andy Reids horrible play calling can ! Add to the fact that denver owns kc in recent matchups which everybody noted, and kc-3 is a questionable call at best. 

Thanks for your comment. Peyton had a game as bad as last week. It was predictable that he and his offensive line would have a bad matchup against the Chiefs and that was obviously the case. He had two successful drives, one of them was when the Chiefs didn't pressure him and Kubiak finally let him play shotgun. He was terrible from under center in pre-season and in the Ravens game, and was terrible again against the Chiefs. This offense produced short below 5 net-YPPA. For instance, the Jets averaged 5.4 in 2014.

Suuma, saw this stat regarding the Jags.......Jags at home 18-38 ATS since 2008.......Jags have lost 10 straight September games ATS since 2012........

Add to the fact that Bortles completed ZERO passes on 11 dropbacks under pressure last Sunday.

KC was not the right pick. Anyone who picked Denver, was not doing so for a bounce back game from manning. They were betting on denvers d, which has been absolutely dominant on all levels. In order for Kc to win consistently, Charles has to come up big every week because smith isn't going to take any chances. You can point to the fumbles, but what about mannings pick six? Or getting stuffed on 4th and 1. Both sides turned the ball over. You can't say the pick was wrong when the Matchups in the game went more or less as expected.

Agreed 100%. KC has no advantage over DEN in any phase of the game. Alex Smith is very over rated and the O-Line in front of Charles is worse than Denvers. Jamaal Charles best days are behind him, regression will rear its ugly head. That early pick 6 was the only thing giving the mirage that KC was the better team.

DEN started firing on offense once Kubiak saw his crap play calling being ineffective a second week in a row. Expect Manning from here on out to go back to the play calling style he's thrived in.

I do not believe KC was the right pick (note I had money on Chiefs). Fumble is not cappable? Maybe, if it was just one fumble in the game. But how many turnovers did we see? As far as I know there were three fumbles and two interceptions conceded by the Chiefs - most of these leading to eventual TDs. Clearly they were the inferior team slated for the loss despite how good or bad you think Manning may have played.

I seriously doubt an inferior team can turn the ball over 4 times and have a 7 point lead with 4 minutes left.

Suuma, thanks as always for your great insights. Where are you living in Germany? I lived there for a year and also lived in Austria, years ago. I wonder how the buzz is to go to an NFL game in Europe. Do they sell out? There is not really a home team, so it must seem like a college bowl game or super bowl :-)

 

*inferior in the sense that "the OTHER" team* is how that should have read. Referencing Denver: It was mentioned all summer that Peyton's arm strength and velocity are at their highest levels since his neck injury. Denvers D can challenge the #1 over all spot. Demaryius Thomas is an elite weapon on the same level as Antonio Brown, Megatron, Gronkowski, Beast Mode, etc.