Posted:
#1
6-3 YTD
ROI: +8%
Only locked in three games so far. Waiting for injury updates tomorrow.
Kansas City Chiefs -3 -115
Arrowhead by night, a questionable offensive line and an aging QB - does this game also reminds you on a MNF game in 2014 when the Patriots travelled to Kansas City? During the week some of you said the media would overreact to the performance by Peyton Manning and his offensive line. But the signs have been there: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=102125809. They struggle in pass-blocking and run-blocking. Peyton Manning looked horrible from under center in the pre-season and against the Ravens. Last season he had one of his worst performances at Kansas City, but they still won because it was a different matchup. That great offensive line had an easy game against one of the worst run defenses to lead C.J. Anderson the way to 5.2 YPC. Now he got only one returning starter from last season and this offensive line got whipped awfully on Sunday. The Chiefs have an improved run defense this season and they will present you a better pass rush than the Ravens. C.J. Anderson didn't practice on Monday and only had limited practices the last two days. It's not 100% that he will be completely ready to take all the snaps. I also rate the Chiefs' secondary starters higher than the guys from Baltimore. The Broncos only had one red zone attempt at home. On their offensive line is nothing right at the moment and the week was too short to solve a lot of things. Arrowhead is one of the loudest stadiums in the world - gonna be difficult to have a clean communication. The Broncos also don't have the QB and type of players to play around their offensive line. And here comes where the Chiefs have done an awesome job in the pre-season. They decided to stick to Alex Smith and build this team and playbook around his strengths. There was no returning starter on any position of the offensive line against JJ Watt and co. and they completely took away that mismatch by a phenomenal gameplan. Screens, short throws, Smith running, nice scheming overall. They can stretch the field with Jeremy Maclin and set up flat plays to Kelce and Charles. This will also some kind of take away the strength of the Broncos - their monstrous defense. SS T.J. Ward comes back and he will have a matchup problem against Travis Kelce who is about six inches taller than Ward. The Ravens had no options. Third down? Throw it to Steve Smith. The Chiefs have so many options that they will just have to score here and also benefit from some good field position. Arrowhead will be rocking and the streak comes to an end here - Chiefs win this game by more than three points.
Miami Dolphins -6 -105
At this point the Jaguars are what they were last season: one of the favorites for the number one pick in the draft. They are far far away from being a mediocre team with all those injuries. They looked atrocious on both sides of the ball. This is a very bad defense. Very poor pass rush against a mediocre offensive line, only Michael Oher got beaten. Davon House struggled against a guy like Tedd Ginn for instance. When Cam ran play-action, the Jaguars had soft coverage. there were two good passing play by Blake Bortles, it was a slant on Allen Hurns who beat his defender and made a very good catch and a deep ball dropped by Robinson but Bortles had much time. Other than that, the Jaguars were "successful" on the ground (around 4.3 YPC) and on WR screens - they had like 8-9 of them. Bortles overthrew his WRs three times in the red zone and was terrible under pressure: 11 dropbacks, 5 sacks, 0/4 completions, 1 drop, 1 INT. And there wasn't really a disrupting pressure, his linemen just got beaten. Their defense couldn't defend and the Panthers should have dropped 31 points rather than just 20. The Jags' lone TD drive was during the 2-min-drill before halftime when the Panthers played a stupid zone/prevent defense and Bortles was able to place a lot of checkdowns at his open receivers.
This game will be won in the trenches. The Jaguars gave up 5 sacks and will be missing LT Luke Joeckel. Joeckel played poor, but his backup Sam Young played flat out terrible, he gave up two sacks and even one to Mario Addison, a backup-DE. Sam Young will line up against Olivier Vernon who is expected to play on Sunday. Bad matchup. RT Jeremy Parnell and RG Brandon Linder had slight issues against the pass rush and gave up 1 sack, 2 hits and 2 hurries. They looked solid in run-blocking but the Panthers were without Star Lotulelei so I assume they will have their hands full against Suh and Wake. Their C Stefen Wisniewski couldn't get the running game going either. If the Jaguars conceded 5 sacks against the Panthers, will the Dolphins get 10 here? On the other side, the Jaguars could only get pressure on Newton via LT Michael Oher who connected with his bad 2014 season, giving up 2 sacks and 2 hurries. Against the Dolphins they will face Branden Albert, that's a completely different category. With Hood, Fowler, Branch and Marks still out, I can't see how the Jags will generate pass rush against the Fins. They don't have the quality like Jason Hatcher, Ryan Kerrigan and maybe Preston Smith.
The offensive play-calling from the Redskins was good, which negated the Dolphins pass rush somehow and they had Jordan Reed as the go-to-guy. Julius Thomas is still injured, so they will have limited TE play. Rashad Greene had limited practice and Marqise Lee had three full practices since the start of training camp. The Dolphins held the Skins to 10 points, who have a much better receiving corps, a better QB and a better o-line than the Jaguars. There were a lot of penalties but would they have scored more than 17? The Dolphins will have a field day. They have two important divisional games on deck but they are deep enough on their DL and WR corps to exploit a lot of mismatches here and show the world they can do better than against the Skins. I am still waiting for injury updates on Reshad Jones, Olivier Vernon, Cameron Wake and Derrick Shelby. Thinking of going bigger on the Fins here. I think the injury of Reshad Jones won't come to play because Bortles won't have a shot at beating them deep.
ROI: +8%
Only locked in three games so far. Waiting for injury updates tomorrow.
Kansas City Chiefs -3 -115
Arrowhead by night, a questionable offensive line and an aging QB - does this game also reminds you on a MNF game in 2014 when the Patriots travelled to Kansas City? During the week some of you said the media would overreact to the performance by Peyton Manning and his offensive line. But the signs have been there: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=102125809. They struggle in pass-blocking and run-blocking. Peyton Manning looked horrible from under center in the pre-season and against the Ravens. Last season he had one of his worst performances at Kansas City, but they still won because it was a different matchup. That great offensive line had an easy game against one of the worst run defenses to lead C.J. Anderson the way to 5.2 YPC. Now he got only one returning starter from last season and this offensive line got whipped awfully on Sunday. The Chiefs have an improved run defense this season and they will present you a better pass rush than the Ravens. C.J. Anderson didn't practice on Monday and only had limited practices the last two days. It's not 100% that he will be completely ready to take all the snaps. I also rate the Chiefs' secondary starters higher than the guys from Baltimore. The Broncos only had one red zone attempt at home. On their offensive line is nothing right at the moment and the week was too short to solve a lot of things. Arrowhead is one of the loudest stadiums in the world - gonna be difficult to have a clean communication. The Broncos also don't have the QB and type of players to play around their offensive line. And here comes where the Chiefs have done an awesome job in the pre-season. They decided to stick to Alex Smith and build this team and playbook around his strengths. There was no returning starter on any position of the offensive line against JJ Watt and co. and they completely took away that mismatch by a phenomenal gameplan. Screens, short throws, Smith running, nice scheming overall. They can stretch the field with Jeremy Maclin and set up flat plays to Kelce and Charles. This will also some kind of take away the strength of the Broncos - their monstrous defense. SS T.J. Ward comes back and he will have a matchup problem against Travis Kelce who is about six inches taller than Ward. The Ravens had no options. Third down? Throw it to Steve Smith. The Chiefs have so many options that they will just have to score here and also benefit from some good field position. Arrowhead will be rocking and the streak comes to an end here - Chiefs win this game by more than three points.
Miami Dolphins -6 -105
At this point the Jaguars are what they were last season: one of the favorites for the number one pick in the draft. They are far far away from being a mediocre team with all those injuries. They looked atrocious on both sides of the ball. This is a very bad defense. Very poor pass rush against a mediocre offensive line, only Michael Oher got beaten. Davon House struggled against a guy like Tedd Ginn for instance. When Cam ran play-action, the Jaguars had soft coverage. there were two good passing play by Blake Bortles, it was a slant on Allen Hurns who beat his defender and made a very good catch and a deep ball dropped by Robinson but Bortles had much time. Other than that, the Jaguars were "successful" on the ground (around 4.3 YPC) and on WR screens - they had like 8-9 of them. Bortles overthrew his WRs three times in the red zone and was terrible under pressure: 11 dropbacks, 5 sacks, 0/4 completions, 1 drop, 1 INT. And there wasn't really a disrupting pressure, his linemen just got beaten. Their defense couldn't defend and the Panthers should have dropped 31 points rather than just 20. The Jags' lone TD drive was during the 2-min-drill before halftime when the Panthers played a stupid zone/prevent defense and Bortles was able to place a lot of checkdowns at his open receivers.
This game will be won in the trenches. The Jaguars gave up 5 sacks and will be missing LT Luke Joeckel. Joeckel played poor, but his backup Sam Young played flat out terrible, he gave up two sacks and even one to Mario Addison, a backup-DE. Sam Young will line up against Olivier Vernon who is expected to play on Sunday. Bad matchup. RT Jeremy Parnell and RG Brandon Linder had slight issues against the pass rush and gave up 1 sack, 2 hits and 2 hurries. They looked solid in run-blocking but the Panthers were without Star Lotulelei so I assume they will have their hands full against Suh and Wake. Their C Stefen Wisniewski couldn't get the running game going either. If the Jaguars conceded 5 sacks against the Panthers, will the Dolphins get 10 here? On the other side, the Jaguars could only get pressure on Newton via LT Michael Oher who connected with his bad 2014 season, giving up 2 sacks and 2 hurries. Against the Dolphins they will face Branden Albert, that's a completely different category. With Hood, Fowler, Branch and Marks still out, I can't see how the Jags will generate pass rush against the Fins. They don't have the quality like Jason Hatcher, Ryan Kerrigan and maybe Preston Smith.
The offensive play-calling from the Redskins was good, which negated the Dolphins pass rush somehow and they had Jordan Reed as the go-to-guy. Julius Thomas is still injured, so they will have limited TE play. Rashad Greene had limited practice and Marqise Lee had three full practices since the start of training camp. The Dolphins held the Skins to 10 points, who have a much better receiving corps, a better QB and a better o-line than the Jaguars. There were a lot of penalties but would they have scored more than 17? The Dolphins will have a field day. They have two important divisional games on deck but they are deep enough on their DL and WR corps to exploit a lot of mismatches here and show the world they can do better than against the Skins. I am still waiting for injury updates on Reshad Jones, Olivier Vernon, Cameron Wake and Derrick Shelby. Thinking of going bigger on the Fins here. I think the injury of Reshad Jones won't come to play because Bortles won't have a shot at beating them deep.
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