Suspicious Lines Week #7

Wondering if any lines are looking wicky/wacky for week 7? 
Browns - 1 1/2 @ Titans 

Chiefs @ Seahawks - 2 1/2 

I dont see it as suspicious 

Browns are on the road

They are not that good on the road 

Seattle are the SB champs why on earth would you give them +3 or more at home

Not to mention this game not as important to the Chiefs they got Denver next week

They beat Denver and they locked up the division basically

Sure you can argue Chiefs want to maintain the perfect record.

But if there a team that can beat the Chiefs, Seattle is one of them especially at home

Nobody is giving SEATTLE any points,they are favored.

@Ppkay

Considering what has transpired and you think Browns - 1 1/2 @ Tenny looks kosher? 

How many pounds of weed do you bong on game days? 

Also, Sam Darnold looks like the Jets' turnover version. Seahawks have a great D but their offense is anemic yet they are favored? 

Apparently you do not understand how lines are made and that they are niot meant to be predictions of an outcome

lines are a worm on a hook, you hungry?

Browns were basically pick ‘em against the Jets and how did that turn out. Tenny got a win so a little confidence. Coaching is where teams get better during the season. I like Tenny in a close game after Browns beat their arch rivals in a comeback win at home scoring only 13 points.  

Chiefs were +2 is what I saw originally. That’s a pick em game with home field advantage. I like the Chiefs and K9 to unload on the Seahawks. 

As a Denver fan, they are not that good. Nix blaming accutane is hilarious. Broncos won a bunch of close games last year. That trend doesn’t usually last over multiple seasons. Broncos have a chance but Bo Nix is playing bad. Chiefs are down WR’s as well. That’s going to hurt their offense.  

Rams -4' @ Raiders   I mean they could have hung a -3 and still reaped tons of Raider $$ but 4' aye curumba !

Minnesota -6.5? This one seems like a joke to me. The Vikings defense at home off a bye? Against Daniel jones? This could be 24-6 final

Texans -10 against the Giants and Panthers, only -3 against the Bucs are head scratchers for me

@Buffalobob89074

I've been starring at this line since the look ahead.

Believe it or not, I believe that "sharp" money is on the Colts. Just the way it's been moving. 

It was as low as -5/-5.5 and I think the public has bet it back to where it is now since the MNF game ended.

Just my view of it. Do I agree with it, nope.

Also, the Colts just fired their GM. Not sure if that plays a factor into the game on the field or not.

@undermysac

 This is the most interesting game on the board to me and I’ll likely have no choice but to stay away. My personal, recency bias, public, and super square opinion is that this game isn’t even competitive. In a “normal” situation where the Flores defense gets all over Jones and the Minnesota offense attacks with JJ and Addison, this is such an “obvious” outcome. But with a few fluky turnovers, a few bad calls, and a big play here and there by JT, this is suddenly a game in the 4th quarter? 

On paper it makes no sense at all. Vikings off a bye…colts organization is in disarray…

What are the sharps seeing that we may be missing? My early preliminary model projection without injury adjustments puts the line at Min -3.48. This will be the pro’s vs joes game of the week imo. Should be an interesting watch and hopefully not the situation where I pass and the sharps outsmart themselves trying to get cute taking a dog with no chance of winning without luck. For me it’s Vikings or nothing and because it’s about as square of a play as you could make, it’ll likely be nothing for me. 

@brn2loslive2win

 I definitely lean the Vikings as well.

Not just because their defense is the best in the league, and the best special teams in the league, but I feel that Kyler Murray's arrow is pointing up.

He's had only 3 starts for KOC. And KOC is a true quarterback whisperer.

Murray's qbr in chronological order this year:

27.5(GB game, got hurt early)

66.5

90.7

109.6

Also, I've mentioned this before on other threads. Watch Daniel Jones play qb. The dude can only read half the field.

Very suspicious lines this week!

@undermysac  @brn2loslive2win  

Im on the colts +6 here and locked it in early because I don’t see the line moving in any meaningful way for a couple of reasons. When the total takes an early tumble by a couple of points, every point given becomes more and more meaningful. 

I saw an early dive in the total and thought that it would only continue to move in that direction, making it more unlikely that the colts would receive more points. The total movement also shows the expected game script. Long fields, colts run game heavy - which is the potential weakness of the Vikings defense. Yes DJ has not looked good, personally I’ve never liked him on the field - but he does have the nickname Danny dimes for his flashes - although I don’t see this game won or lost by him. This offense is built to run, and in a fast low scoring game, it just takes a couple red zone appearances to cover this number. 

Colts are in a backs against the wall situation, and sac, I don’t think the firing of the gm is a bad thing in this situation, it shows we have maximum urgency here for the colts, the Vikings, not so much. I’m not saying the Vikings don’t want to win obviously - but I expect a surprising fight from the colts. We’re nearing the point of the season where parity starts to show its face, and I think this is a great spot for the colts. Just my two cents  

TITAN UP!

CRU$H THE BOOK$. 

im on the colts +7-125

chiefs will make a statement they gonna run Walker all day

the Pit game is fishy I would take the Saints plus the points.

SF -3.5 is kinda wonky I would take Falcons its SF 2nd game on the road and injuries are creeping up even though they are playing good ball.

@puds

 Puds I’m going to agree and disagree with you on a few things. First of all your point about the lowish total and the now 6.5 that Indy is getting is a good one. And commonly overlooked. I have to agree that points are at a premium here. For me personally I think I’d need 7 to be interested in Indy but even then I’d be praying for DJ not to turn it over…

I don’t like either qb. At all. But Sac makes a good point about the slight improvement in Kyler and how KOC does seem to get the best out of his players. Not to mention, you don’t need a great qb to throw to JJ. Who’s Daniel jones throwing to? And how does the game play out if the Vikings jump out to a big lead because of a couple turnovers? That’s where they tee off on DJ and the game becomes a blowout. 

The colts path to success is simple but extremely difficult. First of all win the turnover battle, which they never do, and preferably don’t turn it over once. The obvious is to pound JT the entire game, but Flores already expects that. He’s not going to plan on DJ beating them. And so that’s exactly how they do it. Come out throwing and get that defense backed up from the first play. The screen game to JT is their best weapon. That’s where they’ve found success all year. Quick passes and play action. They’ll need to block well up front just long enough to make it happen. But if you ask me, that’s how they can win. The obvious script of run JT all game is exactly what I’d expect Flores to focus on and take away. 

And for the Vikings, get the midget running. Murray to JJ and Murray running around like a chicken with his head cut off is basically how you’ll see the offense win all year. And whoever keeps him in the pocket is who can shut him down. I’d be studying what SF did against JD Monday night…

Good debate and good luck on this one boys 

The Chiefs have moved to +3 at a couple books, otherwise real cheap +2.5's everywhere else.

With the Broncos on deck, is this a game where they don't give a shit? Non division, non conference Seahawks.

The Seahawks at 3-3 are in chase down mode behind the Niners.

I’m seeing a look ahead line for week 8 of falcons +1.5 at the Bucs, which to me is incredibly weird… maybe I’m missing something, they’ll probably get swamped by the 9ers, lol.

Who has the cojones to take the Tenny Titans +1 1/2??? Yet, it might be the winner? Looks like it is the fade the public jubilee pick for week 7?