Posted:
#51
Scal, I am with you on Dallas....
lets get that win 
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SEATTLE @ COWBOYS: Every Penny Seattle took from me for the season win total comes back right here!!
Posted:
#53
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
Thank you Canada. BIG game coming up for you! Leonard’s revenge game @ Spurs on 1/3! Ya gotta get in on that one!
Hey Scal, are you betting TOR tomorrow?
I noticed in years past when a superstar would “return home” for the first time after joining a new team they would cover. However it hasn’t worked this season. Two come to mind this season but I’m sure there might be more:
Gordon Hayward returned to Utah = no cover
Lebron James returned to Cleveland = no cover
Also, Kawhi demanded a trade and forced his way out of San Antonio so he essentially got what he wanted but it wasn’t handled in the best fashion. DeRozan on the other hand was loyal to Toronto and he gave that city everything. He was devastated upon hearing news of him being traded and probably cried too. I think there’s more motivation on DeRozan to stick it to his old team. Spurs also been dominate at home basically the entire month of September until now...
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Posted:
#56
Quote Originally Posted by reconnoiter:
My post was meant to ask Scal to distance himself from the game to evaluate the game without prejudice. There is no need to use inflammatory word in your writing. Scal did respond to my question with his run defense argument. I don't think Scale was offended by my question at all. Since Pete Carrol became head coach of Seahawks, Seattle never failed to cover as a dog to Dallas. I think Wilson became their quarterback about the time Carroll became their head coach.
Quote Originally Posted by CoreyPaus:
Scal, I just like to make one comment. You probably have a grudge against Seattle because of your losing season total bet. Doesn't your grudge cloud your judgment in this game?
I feel that this fact has been lost in this circle jerk lol.Scal, I just like to make one comment. You probably have a grudge against Seattle because of your losing season total bet. Doesn't your grudge cloud your judgment in this game?
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Posted:
#57
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
Scal, boy oh boy. I have learned never to bet against Russell Wilson. The guy is a magician. You know as well as I know that when it comes to playoff football three things matter more than anything:
Scal, boy oh boy. I have learned never to bet against Russell Wilson. The guy is a magician. You know as well as I know that when it comes to playoff football three things matter more than anything:
1) HC edge to Seattle
2) QB edge to Seattle
3) Defense edge to Dallas except for the fact that Seattle is the best team when it comes to turnover ratio! (I think they are +14) And turnovers matter a lot in football, especially in the playoffs. If Seattle has the turnover advantage in this game, Dallas is in big trouble.
I think Dallas' best hope is that the league might be pulling for them. Seattle got all the calls during the regular season but maybe Dallas will get them on Sunday. A Saints v Cowboys (rematch) and Bears v Rams (rematch) will be HUGE for the NFL.
Bb, I’ve watched Seattle the entire year. They’ve been pulling wins out of their as*es more times than you can say Steve Largent.
And there is this built in fear that it will keep happening.
Seattle is simply, not all that good on defense and on offense outside of the improv of Wilson’s arm they are one dimensional (run run run). They make the right plays at the right time and get a hell of a lot of magic out of Wilson. Panthers, Cards twice, Packers 4th and 2. If two of those games (coin flips) go the other way this is a mediocre 8 win team outside the playoffs
They won’t win the Super Bowl so some team will put them down.
Give me a fantastic line at a pickum at home in the playoffs off a thrilling confidence building win over the Giants where their janitorial staff was on the field.
Again I ask:
Would you lay 6 to Dallas if Seattle was at home? That is what this line means.
You know you wouldn’t. Therefore you be definition must lay off or take this line...
This is a great spot for Dallas to finally get a new era franchise-defining win. And Tony Romo won’t be holding for extra points. You’re missing out. Playoff football is here and coins get a little heavier and a little more certain as to where and how they will land.
Call it.
What do you stand to win?
A hell of a a lot of money on Dallas and once this game is gone, it’s gone for good (Kobayashi mug crashes on floor with coffee splashing on new shoes)
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Posted:
#58
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
Scal, boy oh boy. I have learned never to bet against Russell Wilson. The guy is a magician. You know as well as I know that when it comes to playoff football three things matter more than anything:
Scal, boy oh boy. I have learned never to bet against Russell Wilson. The guy is a magician. You know as well as I know that when it comes to playoff football three things matter more than anything:
1) HC edge to Seattle
2) QB edge to Seattle
3) Defense edge to Dallas except for the fact that Seattle is the best team when it comes to turnover ratio! (I think they are +14) And turnovers matter a lot in football, especially in the playoffs. If Seattle has the turnover advantage in this game, Dallas is in big trouble.
I think Dallas' best hope is that the league might be pulling for them. Seattle got all the calls during the regular season but maybe Dallas will get them on Sunday. A Saints v Cowboys (rematch) and Bears v Rams (rematch) will be HUGE for the NFL.
I'm relying to this post simply to emphasize how most numbers can be massaged into making an argument for whatever side one wants to argue for ...
You use data to make the case that whatever advantage Dallas has on defense is negated by the turnover differential.
What you failed to include was that Seattle is on the road and Dallas is at home. When looking at TO margins using the road/home splits, you will see that the TO margin is negligible.
Also, Seattle has scored quite a bit more points than Dallas on the season, but applying the road/home splits, they have scored the exact same amount of points.
I'm not making a case for either side, simply pointing out that any game that has a line of 3 or less (or thereabouts) I can use the numbers to argue for either side. There is never an exception to this. Not to mention that any numbers/edges that a gambler thinks they have, the line-makers are already aware of it.
Been doing this for over 40 years, and the most valuable lesson I've learned is that gambling on the NFL is not a science, it is an art.
bigreds daddy
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Posted:
#59
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:
He goes 0-5 last weekend.... quits. Comes back 2 days later full tilt.
Yeah... 'hardly ever'
And 4-0 the week prior lol. BWS get a life man. It’s been a decade of stalking me now. You ended up with a stick of gum in profit after a full season of CFB betting. You of all people shouldn’t be ragging on anyone.
Balling I’m waiting for the line
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Posted:
#61
Quote Originally Posted by RagnarLothbrok:
I just can't help seeing Russell Wilson down 5 points with 1:27 left in the game drive down the field, get a touchdown to Lockette, and leave 0:27 left for Dak to run around and miss a bunch of throws.
If you've watched a Seahawks game, you've seen the stats that show Russell Wilson in the 4th Q is the best in the NFL when it comes to passer rating, etc. The Cowboys have to run up the score early and often to keep the Seahawks from winning. I'm skipping.
Put on your big boy pants and take Dallas.
Enough of this skittishness!
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Posted:
#62
I’ve been around the block a dozen times when it comes to these spots and then two dozen times more.
This is a GREAT line folks.
WHEN do you have zero liability to take a pickum in a playoff game at home?
Dallas healthy
Dallas rejuvenated
Dallas having seen Seattle once this year already
Dallas with Cooper (imagine if they never traded for Cooper and we were in this spot)
Dallas rested
Dallas hungry
Dallas with Dak playing his best FB of the year
And all you bring to table is fear of Dallas’ playoff woes and fear that Seattle living on a Bon Jovi prayer all year winning yet again.
No. This is “skittish capping”. No money made like that. Only ulcer inducing worries and then regret when the bet you should have made hits.
Know when you are getting a great line in a very good spot.
This is not blowout city. Seattle is ball control + ground and pound. But there is enough here to get it done. That’s all we need. Getting it done .
If there wasn’t a win here, I wouldn’t post it and mislead you.
Penalty box picks? Playtime in the sandbox.
Main forum picks? Big boy pants plays.
The choice is yours.
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Posted:
#63
Quote Originally Posted by pdouble:
.... this justplay guy is Achilles
.... this justplay guy is Achilles
Wow, really? Remember that time you gave that heartfelt post about the struggles you were going through in your life? Remember that? I think it was last year. You basically let everyone into your life and told everyone about the issues that you were facing; they were real issues..... I respected that as I came in and showed support and understood where you were coming from. We exchanged some back and forth posts and there was a sense of respect on both sides. Now this post above?
You can think what you want chief but this is another classic example of one flip flopping on this site. Whichever way the wind blows I guess.....All good bud. A bit surprised though with this comment above. I unlike so many on here don’t have any hidden agendas nor do I play games. This post above cements my approach towards this new year with this site. Take care of yourself bud. Happy New Year
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Posted:
#66
I wish I trusted Garrett and Dak more. That's about all that's holding me back. Even when they played earlier this year never felt like Seattle offense was a threat except for one big play to Lockett. Dallas turned the ball over 3 times and Gregory got a RTP on Wilson on a crucial 3rd down that gave SEA a FG.
For what it's worth Dallas was relying on guys like Tavon Austin and Deonte Thompson at that point to move the chains, and Gallup dropped a pass that was deflected to Earl Thomas.
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Posted:
#67
Quote Originally Posted by pdouble:
i hope I’m wrong , but I’ve learned recently to trust my senses , and sir something seems off , maybe I’m just overly suspicious
i hope I’m wrong , but I’ve learned recently to trust my senses , and sir something seems off , maybe I’m just overly suspicious
Either way bro no I’ll will
Happy New Years
You trust those senses of yours. “finkle is einhorn, einhorn is finkle”. Whatever floats your boat bud.
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Posted:
#69
Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
Achilles did you really post SECONDS before a kick-offJust asking. Not taking a shot at ya! It’s funny but if it’s before kick it’s legit!
Stop the press! I committed a covers crime!Achilles did you really post SECONDS before a kick-offJust asking. Not taking a shot at ya! It’s funny but if it’s before kick it’s legit!
Amazing how donks still dont realize how important it is to know who will receive the ball to start the game when betting 1st Qs and 1st Hs.
Never underestimate the level of ignorance we are surrounded by here.
MAGAm Yisrael Chai
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Posted:
#71
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
And 4-0 the week prior lol. BWS get a life man. It’s been a decade of stalking me now. You ended up with a stick of gum in profit after a full season of CFB betting. You of all people shouldn’t be ragging on anyone.
Balling I’m waiting for the line
4-0 Talks big
0-5 takes ball and goes home (again)
Stick of gum eh? Check the numbers again. Myself and the lowly one word cappers crushed the Bowls while you were twiddling your thumbs thinking about pulling the trigger on Purdue of all games.
Anyone know if Cyborg is awake yet?
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Posted:
#72
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
Sloppy line setting
Sloppy line setting
-115 for one point and -116 for a ML is NOT sloppy line setting. Lol.
For one CENT I’m buying a full point. LOL.
But now rolling emojis are the substitute for actual dialogue.
Oh wait, like “I can buy a pack of juicy fruit at the end of the CFB season even though my ROI was .00001% spending my life doing it watching 4 TV’s at a time on Saturdays during the regular season” BWS, there isn’t much to discuss.
If Train and BWS are all you have left here it’s like having Jerry Lewis and Jerry Lewis, instead of Dean Martin, two cross eyed idiots with their tongue out.
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Posted:
#73
I would be more concerned with line being -1 or ML -116....Dallas
is 7-1 @ home this season.. 5-2-1 ATS...Beating the #1 seed Saints in the process yet the line is practically a Pickem for a home playoff game....Cowboys defense especially their D line thrive vs drop back Qb's...Mobile Qb's give them trouble....
Mayweather bet 450000 on
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Posted:
#74
The embracing of idiocy is too much to bear at this point.
One time a poster idle_havoc said he’d regret if Hugh Jorgan left?
What the fu** has he done for you idle? Where are his write ups or discussion or dialectic? In the past YEAR???
Jesus, the posters here need to groom their intellect because you have idiots running around picking their nose and as* while others actually offer substantive conversation.
You’re talking to a guy who capped 65% over two YEARS when I actually posted a significant amount of plays (2015 and 2016). Now I don’t even REGISTER on the LOW volume Covers report (look it up I’m not there!) for that poster who tracks records so every loss is magnified and every win is forgotten.
BWS and train and idle, grow up or grow a brain or better BOTH!
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