Posted:
#26
Oh great... As a cowboys fan i know now they r cooked....
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SEATTLE @ COWBOYS: Every Penny Seattle took from me for the season win total comes back right here!!
Posted:
#28
Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:
Love when you make these writeupsI'm changing my opinion on this game from Seattle to Dallas
Love when you make these writeupsI'm changing my opinion on this game from Seattle to Dallas
Ninja please don't do this
you are a respected handicapper here as well as scalbrine I understand....But like league caper and Achilles which are BOTH excellent handicappers they can and have been proven wrong.....Seattle is the play here I truly believe
When I win Money it's my money and NOT house money
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Posted:
#29
Quote Originally Posted by justliketoplay:
Ninja please don't do this you are a respected handicapper here as well as scalbrine I understand....But like league caper and Achilles which are BOTH excellent handicappers they can and have been proven wrong.....Seattle is the play here I truly believe
Achilles??? How could you even give the guy that posts his play 19 seconds before kickoff (LITERALLY) any credit? He isn’t helping anyone but himself. He might as well righty his picks on the mirror and look at himself. He just wants to publicly track his plays. Who he pluck cares what he is playing? it’s not like you can use it to compare to your own picks. There is no time. WOW to each his own
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Posted:
#33
Quote Originally Posted by bpickin:
Quote Originally Posted by justliketoplay:
Ninja please don't do this you are a respected handicapper here as well as scalbrine I understand....But like league caper and Achilles which are BOTH excellent handicappers they can and have been proven wrong.....Seattle is the play here I truly believe
Achilles??? How could you even give the guy that posts his play 19 seconds before kickoff (LITERALLY) any credit? He isn’t helping anyone but himself. He might as well righty his picks on the mirror and look at himself. He just wants to publicly track his plays. Who he pluck cares what he is playing? it’s not like you can use it to compare to your own picks. There is no time. WOW to each his ownNinja please don't do this you are a respected handicapper here as well as scalbrine I understand....But like league caper and Achilles which are BOTH excellent handicappers they can and have been proven wrong.....Seattle is the play here I truly believe
bpickin hey buddy I must admit you are another one I have respect for and have great write up and threads as well but I must defend Achilles here for the plain and simple fact that their are lots of touts and pay for picks standouts that Achilles as well myself know are out there and his reasoning is he does NOT want to give them an opportunity to take advantage of his not for nothing but solidified picks when posted and if you follow him late or not the opportunity to play and seize an in game play is most of the time available.
When I win Money it's my money and NOT house money
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Posted:
#36
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
Right now on FanDuel, the line is Dallas -1 -115 and the ML is -116.
Right now on FanDuel, the line is Dallas -1 -115 and the ML is -116.
So one point is 1 penny compared to the spread??? That is sloppy line setting if I've ever seen it.
All the squares are enamored with Seattle and their late season playoff run but the reality is they had to beat the worst team in the league, the Cards, by not one but two at the gun the field goals, both games with something on the line (the first, their season on the line at 0-2 and possibly falling to 0-3 and the second their playoff position, even though Minnesota faded late).
This is a revenge spot for Dallas having lost earlier in the season to them when they were just putting things together.
The reality, as the squares fall continue their never ending love affair with Wilson and pom-pom waving Carroll, is this:
When Seattle plays a stout run defense against a good team? They lose.
And that is the PERFECT formula for a loss by Seattle here on the road against an excellent run defense with rested players (and coming off an exhilarating, momentum building win over the Giants, which cost me dearly by the way).
Played the Bears #1 Rush D? Lost 24-17 going away
Played the Chargers #9 Rush D? Lost 25-17 at home
Even the next best run defense was a loser, and not even to a good team.
Played the Niners #14 Rush D (only slightly above average?): Lost 26-23 on the road.
While the running game was not completely shut down in all three, it certainly causes Seattle to have an alternative game plan, which rests simply on the improvisation of Wilson and his arm. There is nothing else Seattle has in store. We've seen this time and time again. Wilson is great but you can only put so many throws on a dime in perfect spots for wins late. And in the playoffs on the road, the difficulty level is extreme.
And that is not enough in this revenge spot, with a desperate Cowboys team looking to prove something, anything, to a long-starved fan base at home AGAIN in the playoffs looking to avoid another Tony Romo botched snap (and believe me, there are squares betting Seattle because of that).
Give me the FanDuel ML, at the best price (a penny for a full point), at home, with revenge, with momentum, with long-starved playoff success aspirations, with rest, against a Seattle team that over performed and are priced at a premium.
EVERYTHING I lost ($3,000) on the RSW Under 7.5 comes back right here...for me and the guys I cost money here tailing that one.
DALLAS ML over SEATTLE
3 Grand
Scal, in two different spots in your original post, you make it clear that you see the revenge angle as a large factor in your wager...however, when confronted by a response calling your wager a "revenge bet", you vehemently deny that revenge is a factor in the wager...
I am a little confused...
Personally, I don't believe revenge is a significant factor in the great majority of pro level sports wagering...but I do see a valuable factor in a team playing an opponent twice or three times in a year....
Maybe you can clarify the revenge or not revenge situation of your analysis for me...
Thanks!
PM for the skinny on the down low
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Posted:
#38
Quote Originally Posted by justliketoplay:
Achilles??? How could you even give the guy that posts his play 19 seconds before kickoff (LITERALLY) any credit? He isn’t helping anyone but himself. He might as well righty his picks on the mirror and look at himself. He just wants to publicly track his plays. Who he pluck cares what he is playing? it’s not like you can use it to compare to your own picks. There is no time. WOW to each his own
Achilles??? How could you even give the guy that posts his play 19 seconds before kickoff (LITERALLY) any credit? He isn’t helping anyone but himself. He might as well righty his picks on the mirror and look at himself. He just wants to publicly track his plays. Who he pluck cares what he is playing? it’s not like you can use it to compare to your own picks. There is no time. WOW to each his own
bpickin hey buddy I must admit you are another one I have respect for and have great write up and threads as well but I must defend Achilles here for the plain and simple fact that their are lots of touts and pay for picks standouts that Achilles as well myself know are out there and his reasoning is he does NOT want to give them an opportunity to take advantage of his not for nothing but solidified picks when posted and if you follow him late or not the opportunity to play and seize an in game play is most of the time available.
Soooooo many people want the handouts as seen above with the bpickin character. I must have misread the disclaimer when signing up on this site that there was a time deadline of posting picks. Trust me.....I have very good reasons as to why I post the way I do. Nobody deserves an explanation except for a few on this site. Thanks for the words justliketoplay. All the best to ya brotha and happy new year
All the best to ya brotha and happy new year 0
Posted:
#39
Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:
Scal, in two different spots in your original post, you make it clear that you see the revenge angle as a large factor in your wager...however, when confronted by a response calling your wager a "revenge bet", you vehemently deny that revenge is a factor in the wager...
I am a little confused...
Personally, I don't believe revenge is a significant factor in the great majority of pro level sports wagering...but I do see a valuable factor in a team playing an opponent twice or three times in a year....
Maybe you can clarify the revenge or not revenge situation of your analysis for me...
Thanks!
Sure the dolts here say I want revenge for losing the RAW.
NOT the fact that this is a revenge spot for Dallas which is what you are referencing.
Btw, the “revenge” spot is a bit nuanced. This isn’t “true” revenge as a capping 101 angle. This is more about Dallas seeing Seattle for the second time this season and cleaning things up. And they are FAR more solid than they were when they were 1-2 and lost.
The line is -1 -115 and ML -116. So really it’s a .06 juiced pickum.
Who here seriously believes that if this game switches to Seattle, Seattle is a -6 favorite? Who can defend that!?
That is foolishness of the highest order. Just reverse the line from road to see how bad this one is...
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Posted:
#41
Quote Originally Posted by CoreyPaus:
Scal, I just like to make one comment. You probably have a grudge against Seattle because of your losing season total bet. Doesn't your grudge cloud your judgment in this game?
If it did I would have just written “Fu** the Seahawks. Dallas ML is the play!” And I’ve said a bit more than that.
Wait, I’ve said a HELL of a lot more than that, and I’M STILL typing...
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Posted:
#43
Quote Originally Posted by CoreyPaus:
Scal, I just like to make one comment. You probably have a grudge against Seattle because of your losing season total bet. Doesn't your grudge cloud your judgment in this game?
Let’s go down the list of who Seattle has beaten and look at run defense ranking now at the end of the year (a true measure as to what the run defense was and is):
Seattle Beat:
Cardinals TWICE - the worst run defense in the NFL BY FAR giving up a whopping 25 TD’s. And they needed two last second FG’s to do it. Beat this team by 6 pts in 2 games.
Raiders - 30th ranked run D and one awful tanking team
Lions - 10th ranked run D (ok) but a bad, misguided, floundering team in general
Packers - one of the worst seasons in memory for GB and 22nd run D
Panthers- twelfth ranked run D (needed a 4th and forever TD to tie it and then won in OT).
Niners - 14th ranked run D. Lost once. Won once.
Vikings - 15th ranked run D
Chiefs - 27th ranked run D
NOW ALL of their losses came against better RUN D’s except for the Rams at 23 (which bolsters my point since they lost twice to a far below average run D).
Chicago - 1 LOSS
Chargers - 9 loss
San Fran - 14 loss
Dallas is -#5 they beat them as Dallas was finding themselves and Dak was struggling. Not the case anymore.
Carroll has stood firm in saying he wants to establish the run every game.
I don’t know what to tell you folks. It’s clear as day. This is setting the table for a Dallas win.
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Posted:
#47
I just can't help seeing Russell Wilson down 5 points with 1:27 left in the game drive down the field, get a touchdown to Lockette, and leave 0:27 left for Dak to run around and miss a bunch of throws.
If you've watched a Seahawks game, you've seen the stats that show Russell Wilson in the 4th Q is the best in the NFL when it comes to passer rating, etc. The Cowboys have to run up the score early and often to keep the Seahawks from winning. I'm skipping.
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Posted:
#48
Scal, boy oh boy. I have learned never to bet against Russell Wilson. The guy is a magician. You know as well as I know that when it comes to playoff football three things matter more than anything:
1) HC edge to Seattle
2) QB edge to Seattle
3) Defense edge to Dallas except for the fact that Seattle is the best team when it comes to turnover ratio! (I think they are +14) And turnovers matter a lot in football, especially in the playoffs. If Seattle has the turnover advantage in this game, Dallas is in big trouble.
I think Dallas' best hope is that the league might be pulling for them. Seattle got all the calls during the regular season but maybe Dallas will get them on Sunday. A Saints v Cowboys (rematch) and Bears v Rams (rematch) will be HUGE for the NFL.
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