Rare POY brewing in the Forecast for Week 9

Quote Originally Posted by ForecastinFloyd:

I will mildly give a few reasons why I like the Lions this week. 

I feel like I should start this post out with some kind of bankroll management non-sense with percentages and what to bet on each game and all that jazz to fit in with the tout name calling non-sense, but let's get on with the play and leave the childish comments and bashing to the adolescents out there.  Everyone that's been through my threads knows that my plays are real, my posts are recreational.  As in,  I just come on here and post my plays for the most part and don't feel it's my job to act like a used cars salesmen when talking about my pick/s.  There is always valid reasons on both sides, and it's important to listen to them all.  However, I'm not a big fan of the "I'm right, you're wrong" arguments, or try and persuade someone off of a pick, because I very well could be wrong, and always advise people out there to go with their first instincts.  I usually just post my card, update my record and move onto the next week. All of that speaks for itself, I don't need to add anything beyond that.  I guess things are different this week because of the rarity behind the lions play, and it brought the zoo into my thread, which can be expected I suppose.

I don't know how anyone cannot bet on this Detroit team at home right now.  32, 44, and 37 points at home?  How much convincing should it take for anyone that watched that Jets game last week after the bye week get shut out at home by Green Bay to either lay off the game all together this week, or put a small number plus the points on Detroit?  Look at that game last week, the Lions nearly beat the Packers with a backup QB and the Jets can't even score a simple fg? What's wrong with that picture? Forget all this Rex Ryan soap opera in the media about bouncing back and publicly dissing the Lions defense. This is a team that's grown a lot this past year, especially up front and it's shown all year.  Ryan opening his mouth is only going to make things worse for his team. What kind of preparation were they doing last week and during the bye?  The Jets run an offense that reminds me of the old Nintendo football games where you get to pick from 3 offensive plays and enter a cheat code to get the 4th.  In my opinion, and I watch a considerable amount of football, this is the most over rated team in the NFL, and certainly one of the most poor and anemic offenses in the league, and it won't have them in the game this coming Sunday, especially playing from behind. 

I like the Lions to stop the run early here and get pressure on Sanchez. Sanchez is going to get hit hard and often in this game, whether Jets fans/backers want to believe it or not.  The Lions will bring pressure and they will disrupt Sanchez. 

I am going to go out on a limb here and say that the Lions will feature a lot of plays to get Jahvid Best the ball in space early to open things up, and time things nicely with some of these blitz packages the Jets have been overly using, and predictable in a lot of ways.   I have read some concerns on here about Stafford and what kind of protection he is going to get.  I really am not extremely worried. The Lions did very good against the Packers 3-4 defense (which I think is better).  Stafford impressed me on his return, even under pressure where he had to make quick decisions at times.  The big bad Jets rushing offense vs. the poor Lions rush defense?  I think these numbers are deceiving in a lot of ways, especially in regards to the Lions rush defense.  These numbers were inflated by long runs from Peterson, and McCoy. Overall, from what I have seen, they haven't been as terrible as people make them out to be. 

The Lions have the mentality right now that they have a legitimate chance on making the playoffs with the way they are playing if they win this game at home in front of a sold out crowd. If they lose, they obviously don't have too much of a chance. That motivation alone is going to be huge.  The Jets are thinking about how they can put a field goal on the board and score some points.  The Lions know they have no problems putting up numbers. 

In closing, Suh stated that the Lions wouldn't lose another game at home the rest of the way.  The way he's played this year, who can argue him, and who can certainly argue the way this ball club has turned things around and the points they are putting on the board this year leading the NFC thus far. Who would think that the Lions would have more sacks and interceptions than the Jets at this stage of the season?


With that being said, my POY stands.  I like the Lions to win this game convincingly  s/u.  Take them plus the points +4 and sprinkle the moneyline.



Final Score Forecast

Detroit Lions 24
New York Jets 17

Quote Originally Posted by occy777:

Uriss---i've been reading FF posts ever since i've been on here. i've also been reading your posts for that same amount of time. I respect both of you equally in what you do. You are both different but effective. In viewing both of you as two RARE assets to this site i am a little dissappointed to see you two at odds like this. IMO, Uriss, you are being a little harsh on FF, i can tell you that he does fly under the radar and this is the first time i've seen him post a POY and have a thread go this long. FF is always very humble, matter of fact and low key, he is definitely not a tout. The guy picks every game every week and clips at 60 %, i think you would agree that is not easy to do. FF is excited about his detroit play, posted he has a POY coming and then posted it. Nothing wrong with that, you stated your displeasure with that and should of left it at that. Instead, you continued to needle him, bring out his previous POY'S, call him a tout, and yes, you did bash him several times and call him out for a write up. Calling him out for a write up is the only thing productive out of all of this. As for the game, you are right Uriss, the jets dominate in almost every way you can look at this game. They should feast on the Lions run D with that O-line, Greene and LT. Shit, Sanchez shouldn't have to throw once, but the fact that he will, with their ability to run, sanchez should be able to throw at will with huge success. The jets own the special teams. The jets D should completely shut down any running game the Lions can offer which leaves them one dimensional. You become one dimensional against a D like the jets and typically it's game over, jets route. Revis shuts down CJ and there really is absolutely nothing the jets D needs to be concerned with, right? Detroit is not going anywhere, there is no extra motiviation for them, not a divisional game. The jets on the other hand are in a dogfight in their conferfence, just got embarrassed at home, need the win badly and need to redeem themselves, that's plenty of motiviation as far as i'm concerned. So really, you have to be crazy to even think about wagering on the Lions in this one, right? Well then, why is the line only 4? Uriss, you are a good capper and well respected on this site, don't get involved in these types of rants, it puts a blemish on your credibility. BOL to both of you, continue to do what you do. FF, in all fairness, you do owe at least some thoughts on what qualified this game as a POY, and you did say early on you would do that.

 

Quote Originally Posted by ForecastinFloyd:



Well said, this is a rare play for me, how I went about this is not for attention.  If I wanted attention, clearly all of my threads the last two NFL season would be a lot more different, and certainly the language used with the record I have.  But, I would hope by now that after quietly going about my picks around here the last few NFL seasons I could gain enough respect to not have to deal with outlandish bashing and unjustly being called a tout (which is hilarious).     

My record speaks for itself as well as how I handle myself on here in a respectful manner at all times.  Take a look at all my threads.

I have nothing more to add other than I am disappointed in the kind of trash that's been thrown my way after the way I treat others on here.


Best of luck to all this week regardless of your sides, I won't be on for the rest of the week.  This has been too much.

FF

Quote Originally Posted by nautic:

you always gotta have the last say huh uriss, who is the baby again? theres a bunch of haters on covers, you dont have to be one of them, its his thread after all, win or lose.

Quote Originally Posted by occy777:

Uriss---i've been reading FF posts ever since i've been on here. i've also been reading your posts for that same amount of time. I respect both of you equally in what you do. You are both different but effective. In viewing both of you as two RARE assets to this site i am a little dissappointed to see you two at odds like this. IMO, Uriss, you are being a little harsh on FF, i can tell you that he does fly under the radar and this is the first time i've seen him post a POY and have a thread go this long. FF is always very humble, matter of fact and low key, he is definitely not a tout. The guy picks every game every week and clips at 60 %, i think you would agree that is not easy to do. FF is excited about his detroit play, posted he has a POY coming and then posted it. Nothing wrong with that, you stated your displeasure with that and should of left it at that. Instead, you continued to needle him, bring out his previous POY'S, call him a tout, and yes, you did bash him several times and call him out for a write up. Calling him out for a write up is the only thing productive out of all of this. As for the game, you are right Uriss, the jets dominate in almost every way you can look at this game. They should feast on the Lions run D with that O-line, Greene and LT. Shit, Sanchez shouldn't have to throw once, but the fact that he will, with their ability to run, sanchez should be able to throw at will with huge success. The jets own the special teams. The jets D should completely shut down any running game the Lions can offer which leaves them one dimensional. You become one dimensional against a D like the jets and typically it's game over, jets route. Revis shuts down CJ and there really is absolutely nothing the jets D needs to be concerned with, right? Detroit is not going anywhere, there is no extra motiviation for them, not a divisional game. The jets on the other hand are in a dogfight in their conferfence, just got embarrassed at home, need the win badly and need to redeem themselves, that's plenty of motiviation as far as i'm concerned. So really, you have to be crazy to even think about wagering on the Lions in this one, right? Well then, why is the line only 4? Uriss, you are a good capper and well respected on this site, don't get involved in these types of rants, it puts a blemish on your credibility. BOL to both of you, continue to do what you do. FF, in all fairness, you do owe at least some thoughts on what qualified this game as a POY, and you did say early on you would do that.

 

Quote Originally Posted by BigUnit:

I dont know if I would make this a POY.

Quote Originally Posted by URISS2302:



another poy loss


https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=40?=100402704

Quote Originally Posted by URISS2302:



Oh God.. you are such a tout

Quote Originally Posted by ForecastinFloyd:

I will mildly give a few reasons why I like the Lions this week. 

I feel like I should start this post out with some kind of bankroll management non-sense with percentages and what to bet on each game and all that jazz to fit in with the tout name calling non-sense, but let's get on with the play and leave the childish comments and bashing to the adolescents out there.  Everyone that's been through my threads knows that my plays are real, my posts are recreational.  As in,  I just come on here and post my plays for the most part and don't feel it's my job to act like a used cars salesmen when talking about my pick/s.  There is always valid reasons on both sides, and it's important to listen to them all.  However, I'm not a big fan of the "I'm right, you're wrong" arguments, or try and persuade someone off of a pick, because I very well could be wrong, and always advise people out there to go with their first instincts.  I usually just post my card, update my record and move onto the next week. All of that speaks for itself, I don't need to add anything beyond that.  I guess things are different this week because of the rarity behind the lions play, and it brought the zoo into my thread, which can be expected I suppose.

I don't know how anyone cannot bet on this Detroit team at home right now.  32, 44, and 37 points at home?  How much convincing should it take for anyone that watched that Jets game last week after the bye week get shut out at home by Green Bay to either lay off the game all together this week, or put a small number plus the points on Detroit?  Look at that game last week, the Lions nearly beat the Packers with a backup QB and the Jets can't even score a simple fg? What's wrong with that picture? Forget all this Rex Ryan soap opera in the media about bouncing back and publicly dissing the Lions defense. This is a team that's grown a lot this past year, especially up front and it's shown all year.  Ryan opening his mouth is only going to make things worse for his team. What kind of preparation were they doing last week and during the bye?  The Jets run an offense that reminds me of the old Nintendo football games where you get to pick from 3 offensive plays and enter a cheat code to get the 4th.  In my opinion, and I watch a considerable amount of football, this is the most over rated team in the NFL, and certainly one of the most poor and anemic offenses in the league, and it won't have them in the game this coming Sunday, especially playing from behind. 

I like the Lions to stop the run early here and get pressure on Sanchez. Sanchez is going to get hit hard and often in this game, whether Jets fans/backers want to believe it or not.  The Lions will bring pressure and they will disrupt Sanchez. 

I am going to go out on a limb here and say that the Lions will feature a lot of plays to get Jahvid Best the ball in space early to open things up, and time things nicely with some of these blitz packages the Jets have been overly using, and predictable in a lot of ways.   I have read some concerns on here about Stafford and what kind of protection he is going to get.  I really am not extremely worried. The Lions did very good against the Packers 3-4 defense (which I think is better).  Stafford impressed me on his return, even under pressure where he had to make quick decisions at times.  The big bad Jets rushing offense vs. the poor Lions rush defense?  I think these numbers are deceiving in a lot of ways, especially in regards to the Lions rush defense.  These numbers were inflated by long runs from Peterson, and McCoy. Overall, from what I have seen, they haven't been as terrible as people make them out to be. 

The Lions have the mentality right now that they have a legitimate chance on making the playoffs with the way they are playing if they win this game at home in front of a sold out crowd. If they lose, they obviously don't have too much of a chance. That motivation alone is going to be huge.  The Jets are thinking about how they can put a field goal on the board and score some points.  The Lions know they have no problems putting up numbers. 

In closing, Suh stated that the Lions wouldn't lose another game at home the rest of the way.  The way he's played this year, who can argue him, and who can certainly argue the way this ball club has turned things around and the points they are putting on the board this year leading the NFC thus far. Who would think that the Lions would have more sacks and interceptions than the Jets at this stage of the season?


With that being said, my POY stands.  I like the Lions to win this game convincingly  s/u.  Take them plus the points +4 and sprinkle the moneyline.



Final Score Forecast

Detroit Lions 24
New York Jets 17

Quote Originally Posted by BOP333:



Ditto.

And URIS, regarding your comment to me, I don't have to "open my eyes" to see that you're a [urgh, I don't want to go there]. It's bad enough that you wasted half this thread getting on your own soap box about what's appropriate and not appropriate to say, do, post, explain, blah, blah, blah. If you don't like his thread, get out. If you don't like the attention it's getting, then don't fire up the flames with the useless drama.

I appreciate any rationale provided here because NONE of it is "owed" to me. All the great (and not so great) discussion at Covers is free, and I appreciate it. No one here owes JACK CRAP to me. If you think someone here owes you something, open your eyes.

That said, I do appreciate the passion that you have for this community, even if I don't agree with how you're channeling that energy. And, admittedly, I'm not a regular contributor to the community so I have less right than someone who regularly does contribute (like you) to try to shape the way people post and talk about their picks. But, I just wanted to share my honest opinion after reading this thread.

FF, thanks for taking the time to post your rationale.

I'm honestly leaning toward the Jets in this spot for many of the reasons already stated by others (also leaning toward the under).

I don't think the Jets D is overrated. Yeah, the team laid an egg against GB, but their D held GB to 9 pts and held Rodgers to 170 yds passing. GB was dealing with some injuries of course, but it was still an impressive defensive showing for both teams.

Regarding DET's high powered offense, I love them this year (and own Stafford and Megatron in several fantasy leagues), but I think they're being a little overvalued. In their last two impressive home victories, all those points didn't come from the offense:

The Rams actually gained more first downs and had more total yards than the Lions. Three turnovers (including a pick-6) and a kickoff return for a TD padded the points for DET.

Last week, DET had 14 total points through more than 3 quarters of play. They then exploded for 23 points in the 4th quarter. 7 of those points came from the Suh fumble return at the end of the game.

And, I'm sure we can all agree that the Rams and the Redskins are not top notch defenses.

Those defense/special teams and 4th quarter points are all still points and the Lions deserve the additional respect they're getting. But I just think this notion that they're a super high powered offense now is slightly exaggerated. Or, perhaps just premature until Stafford gets some more experience/playing time.

Obviously, turnovers are hard to predict, so I won't even try.

Leaning the Jets and the Under, but not locked in yet. I'm just starting the research process. Again, I appreciate your thoughts on the game, and don't let the haters get to you.

Good luck.

Quote Originally Posted by Jose_Reyes:

 

YES Jose  it's THE steelers @ cincy they will win by huge margin

 

Cincy is all limping around on defense  and very beatable by any body  with a helthy team  and winning record