Posted:
#101
In Floyd We Trust
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Rare POY brewing in the Forecast for Week 9
Posted:
#102
Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:
it's just a pick, guys. play it, fade it, skip it. whatever. make your own determination. the guy has a nice record. he's been more right than wrong. he's telling you his play. what's the big deal?
it's just a pick, guys. play it, fade it, skip it. whatever. make your own determination. the guy has a nice record. he's been more right than wrong. he's telling you his play. what's the big deal?
Well said,
This is my POY
it doesn't have to be everyone that opened the threads as well. Use
your own discretion. I don't believe it's my job to come on here and
try and convince everyone that I am right, and everyone else is wrong
as it pertains to a game. That's not my style. Ive always appreciated hearing insight from both sides, but it will never change my play, and it never has. I have always told
people in my threads, always go with your first instinct, if that was
the Jets, play it. If you want to ride along with this play, that's
your choice as well. This isn't for a show, this is my largest and
most confident wager of the season from a personal standpoint. Some people might trust me based on the overall success I have had when it comes to these kinds of plays and my overall winning percentage all together.
Skimordie, there's nothing wrong with you blindly tailing for those reasons alone and sprinkling something on the game if you are uncertain. But, please feel free to review my past threads and winning percentage.
Best of luck regardless of your sides here.
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Posted:
#105
Quote Originally Posted by ForecastinFloyd:
For the record, I wasn't purposely trying to hold this back in suspense. That's never been how I go about things. I am not going to hold this back any longer.
For the record, I wasn't purposely trying to hold this back in suspense. That's never been how I go about things. I am not going to hold this back any longer.
The POY is the Detroit Lions
I don't expect this play to be popular, but I do expect the Lions to win convincingly this weekend against the Jets at home and certainly cover the points. I will have a moderate write up as the week goes on. The line is sitting at +4 right now in most places across the board, and I don't expect it to go beyond 5. Take them plus the points this weekend and keep an eye on the line movement within the next 24hrs and play the game as you see fit.
As I explained in another posts, this line has me puzzled which is why I stayed away from playing jets. As ironic as it sounds....I'd feel more comfortable playing Jets at -7 than at -4. Something smells very fishy here or books just giving Det. respect out of nowhere after they have been dogged 8-10 pts all year. GL on the play.
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Posted:
#106
I've read through most of this thread and skipped over the nonsense. Let's review some facts with this matchup:
Lions are 6-1 ATS this year and have covered 4 straight. The Jets are 5-2 ATS and losers last week SUATS to the Packers after covering 5 straight. The Jets are +7 in TO differential, but have turned it over 6 times on offense in the last 2 games. The Lions are +1 in TO differential. The Lions get turnovers but they also give it right back.
I see the Jets getting turnovers because the Lions have been turning it over all year consistently and if the Jets offense continues to play to form, the Lions will get some turnovers too. Turnovers will be turned into points.
I use a Yards per Point calculator based on the stats of the last 4 games to predict the final score. The YPPT calculator has the lines winning 24-22. There are enough trends to support a case to play either side.
If this line somehow magically springs up to the 6 or 7 range, I'm with you Floyd, but it just seems to me with all the turnovers that I see in this game, it's only takes one to either make or break you. With that, I'll pass on the side, but I really like the Ovr 41.5
Why? The Lions offense will put up points as they have all year and I see the Jets bouncing back on offense playing in an environmentally controlled Ford Field instead of the blustery Meadowlands.
Lions are 6-1 ATS this year and have covered 4 straight. The Jets are 5-2 ATS and losers last week SUATS to the Packers after covering 5 straight. The Jets are +7 in TO differential, but have turned it over 6 times on offense in the last 2 games. The Lions are +1 in TO differential. The Lions get turnovers but they also give it right back.
I see the Jets getting turnovers because the Lions have been turning it over all year consistently and if the Jets offense continues to play to form, the Lions will get some turnovers too. Turnovers will be turned into points.
I use a Yards per Point calculator based on the stats of the last 4 games to predict the final score. The YPPT calculator has the lines winning 24-22. There are enough trends to support a case to play either side.
If this line somehow magically springs up to the 6 or 7 range, I'm with you Floyd, but it just seems to me with all the turnovers that I see in this game, it's only takes one to either make or break you. With that, I'll pass on the side, but I really like the Ovr 41.5
Why? The Lions offense will put up points as they have all year and I see the Jets bouncing back on offense playing in an environmentally controlled Ford Field instead of the blustery Meadowlands.
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Posted:
#107
Quote Originally Posted by Firebird27:
I've read through most of this thread and skipped over the nonsense. Let's review some facts with this matchup:
Lions are 6-1 ATS this year and have covered 4 straight. The Jets are 5-2 ATS and losers last week SUATS to the Packers after covering 5 straight. The Jets are +7 in TO differential, but have turned it over 6 times on offense in the last 2 games. The Lions are +1 in TO differential. The Lions get turnovers but they also give it right back.
I see the Jets getting turnovers because the Lions have been turning it over all year consistently and if the Jets offense continues to play to form, the Lions will get some turnovers too. Turnovers will be turned into points.
I use a Yards per Point calculator based on the stats of the last 4 games to predict the final score. The YPPT calculator has the Lions winning 24-22. There are enough trends to support a case to play either side.
If this line somehow magically springs up to the 6 or 7 range, I'm with you Floyd, but it just seems to me with all the turnovers that I see in this game, it's only takes one to either make or break you. With that, I'll pass on the side, but I really like the Ovr 41.5
Why? The Lions offense will put up points as they have all year and I see the Jets bouncing back on offense playing in an environmentally controlled Ford Field instead of the blustery Meadowlands.
I've read through most of this thread and skipped over the nonsense. Let's review some facts with this matchup:
Lions are 6-1 ATS this year and have covered 4 straight. The Jets are 5-2 ATS and losers last week SUATS to the Packers after covering 5 straight. The Jets are +7 in TO differential, but have turned it over 6 times on offense in the last 2 games. The Lions are +1 in TO differential. The Lions get turnovers but they also give it right back.
I see the Jets getting turnovers because the Lions have been turning it over all year consistently and if the Jets offense continues to play to form, the Lions will get some turnovers too. Turnovers will be turned into points.
I use a Yards per Point calculator based on the stats of the last 4 games to predict the final score. The YPPT calculator has the Lions winning 24-22. There are enough trends to support a case to play either side.
If this line somehow magically springs up to the 6 or 7 range, I'm with you Floyd, but it just seems to me with all the turnovers that I see in this game, it's only takes one to either make or break you. With that, I'll pass on the side, but I really like the Ovr 41.5
Why? The Lions offense will put up points as they have all year and I see the Jets bouncing back on offense playing in an environmentally controlled Ford Field instead of the blustery Meadowlands.
Lions not lines
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Posted:
#108
Quote Originally Posted by ForecastinFloyd:
Well said,This is my POY it doesn't have to be everyone that opened the threads as well. Use your own discretion. I don't believe it's my job to come on here and try and convince everyone that I am right, and everyone else is wrong as it pertains to a game. That's not my style. Ive always appreciated hearing insight from both sides, but it will never change my play, and it never has. I have always told people in my threads, always go with your first instinct, if that was the Jets, play it. If you want to ride along with this play, that's your choice as well. This isn't for a show, this is my largest and most confident wager of the season from a personal standpoint.
Some people might trust me based on the overall success I have had when it comes to these kinds of plays and my overall winning percentage all together.
Skimordie, there's nothing wrong with you blindly tailing for those reasons alone and sprinkling something on the game if you are uncertain. But, please feel free to review my past threads and winning percentage.
Best of luck regardless of your sides here.
Well said,
This is my POY it doesn't have to be everyone that opened the threads as well. Use your own discretion. I don't believe it's my job to come on here and try and convince everyone that I am right, and everyone else is wrong as it pertains to a game. That's not my style. Ive always appreciated hearing insight from both sides, but it will never change my play, and it never has. I have always told people in my threads, always go with your first instinct, if that was the Jets, play it. If you want to ride along with this play, that's your choice as well. This isn't for a show, this is my largest and most confident wager of the season from a personal standpoint. Some people might trust me based on the overall success I have had when it comes to these kinds of plays and my overall winning percentage all together.
Skimordie, there's nothing wrong with you blindly tailing for those reasons alone and sprinkling something on the game if you are uncertain. But, please feel free to review my past threads and winning percentage.
Best of luck regardless of your sides here.
Good luck Floyd.. 
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Posted:
#109
I would be concerned about one thing with the Lions.
SPECIAL TEAMS
They kicked the snot out of the skins but gave up several returns that resulted in great field position for wash. (not to mention two TD returns--one nullified by penalty). Only a McBonehead interception put them back into a game that they should have won easily.
SPECIAL TEAMS
They kicked the snot out of the skins but gave up several returns that resulted in great field position for wash. (not to mention two TD returns--one nullified by penalty). Only a McBonehead interception put them back into a game that they should have won easily.
0
Posted:
#110
CalBear, Like you, I was curious where they were going to open the line. A lot of people are going to lay off of this game because of the opening number (suspicious) and it might save them some money if they were thinking about the Jets. Best of luck on your plays this week bud.
Firebird, very well thought out and interesting analysis you provided. The turnover margin in this game will definitely play a big role, and I think the Lions at home will win that battle, especially in terms of disrupting Sanchez and getting a few picks. The turnovers will more than likely be turned into points in this contest, but in terms of the over...I would be concerned about the Jets turning those points into touchdowns, rather than field goals. They were just shut out at home and couldn't even kick one through the uprights. I really see the Lions going up big early here, and the Jets playing most of the game from behind forcing Sanchez to throw the ball more. That offense in New York is pretty anemic right now, and the Lions have been clicking on all cylinders at home. Best of luck!
Firebird, very well thought out and interesting analysis you provided. The turnover margin in this game will definitely play a big role, and I think the Lions at home will win that battle, especially in terms of disrupting Sanchez and getting a few picks. The turnovers will more than likely be turned into points in this contest, but in terms of the over...I would be concerned about the Jets turning those points into touchdowns, rather than field goals. They were just shut out at home and couldn't even kick one through the uprights. I really see the Lions going up big early here, and the Jets playing most of the game from behind forcing Sanchez to throw the ball more. That offense in New York is pretty anemic right now, and the Lions have been clicking on all cylinders at home. Best of luck!
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Posted:
#111
Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:
I would be concerned about one thing with the Lions.
SPECIAL TEAMS
They kicked the snot out of the skins but gave up several returns that resulted in great field position for wash. (not to mention two TD returns--one nullified by penalty). Only a McBonehead interception put them back into a game that they should have won easily.
I would be concerned about one thing with the Lions.
SPECIAL TEAMS
They kicked the snot out of the skins but gave up several returns that resulted in great field position for wash. (not to mention two TD returns--one nullified by penalty). Only a McBonehead interception put them back into a game that they should have won easily.
That's one of the major things I am concerned about in this contest, but I think the film from last weeks contest from both sides will help eliminate some of the errors that were made and even if the Jets get a good kick return or two back, those typically only result in 3pts from that offense.
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Posted:
#114
A slight change in the Forecast (non POY related)
Things are going to change in my Forecast/s. As most of you know, I typically bet evenly across the board on every single game on the card, occasionally throwing out three or four games that I like the most and clip at around 60%.
I am not implying that the Forecasts are going to start raining POY's every week, because that's not how I, or anyone should go about things at a rapid and usually dishonest pace. I keep it as genuine as possible and that's the plan moving forward in terms of my plays go.
I have contemplated in the past breaking it down to 5 games each week and leaving the rest of the board dry, but, I like the challenge of capping each game and betting each game evenly to see where things stand at the conclusion of the season. So far, it's been a success, that's why I haven't change. What I am going to do every week is continue the Forecast as usual, but throw out the one game that I like the most followed by 2 more games. From a personal standpoint, my wagering is going to moderately fluctuate percentage wise on what's played on those three games, but that kind of information is meaningless on here, and a waste to talk about other than what is my strongest play followed by the next two.
We are starting this for the Week 9 Forecast, and I will keep everything in this thread (just for this week). The Top 3 games for each week are going to be called "The Warm Front". Hopefully this will help other people on the forum along the way. I know it's difficult sometimes to pick and choose from 10 or more games.
My card will be finalized within the hour.
Things are going to change in my Forecast/s. As most of you know, I typically bet evenly across the board on every single game on the card, occasionally throwing out three or four games that I like the most and clip at around 60%.
I am not implying that the Forecasts are going to start raining POY's every week, because that's not how I, or anyone should go about things at a rapid and usually dishonest pace. I keep it as genuine as possible and that's the plan moving forward in terms of my plays go.
I have contemplated in the past breaking it down to 5 games each week and leaving the rest of the board dry, but, I like the challenge of capping each game and betting each game evenly to see where things stand at the conclusion of the season. So far, it's been a success, that's why I haven't change. What I am going to do every week is continue the Forecast as usual, but throw out the one game that I like the most followed by 2 more games. From a personal standpoint, my wagering is going to moderately fluctuate percentage wise on what's played on those three games, but that kind of information is meaningless on here, and a waste to talk about other than what is my strongest play followed by the next two.
We are starting this for the Week 9 Forecast, and I will keep everything in this thread (just for this week). The Top 3 games for each week are going to be called "The Warm Front". Hopefully this will help other people on the forum along the way. I know it's difficult sometimes to pick and choose from 10 or more games.
My card will be finalized within the hour.
0
Posted:
#116
Quote Originally Posted by ForecastinFloyd:
A slight change in the Forecast (non POY related)
Things are going to change in my Forecast/s. As most of you know, I typically bet evenly across the board on every single game on the card, occasionally throwing out three or four games that I like the most and clip at around 60%.
I am not implying that the Forecasts are going to start raining POY's every week, because that's not how I, or anyone should go about things at a rapid and usually dishonest pace. I keep it as genuine as possible and that's the plan moving forward in terms of my plays go.
I have contemplated in the past breaking it down to 5 games each week and leaving the rest of the board dry, but, I like the challenge of capping each game and betting each game evenly to see where things stand at the conclusion of the season. So far, it's been a success, that's why I haven't change. What I am going to do every week is continue the Forecast as usual, but throw out the one game that I like the most followed by 2 more games. From a personal standpoint, my wagering is going to moderately fluctuate percentage wise on what's played on those three games, but that kind of information is meaningless on here, and a waste to talk about other than what is my strongest play followed by the next two.
We are starting this for the Week 9 Forecast, and I will keep everything in this thread (just for this week). The Top 3 games for each week are going to be called "The Warm Front". Hopefully this will help other people on the forum along the way. I know it's difficult sometimes to pick and choose from 10 or more games.
My card will be finalized within the hour.
A slight change in the Forecast (non POY related)
Things are going to change in my Forecast/s. As most of you know, I typically bet evenly across the board on every single game on the card, occasionally throwing out three or four games that I like the most and clip at around 60%.
I am not implying that the Forecasts are going to start raining POY's every week, because that's not how I, or anyone should go about things at a rapid and usually dishonest pace. I keep it as genuine as possible and that's the plan moving forward in terms of my plays go.
I have contemplated in the past breaking it down to 5 games each week and leaving the rest of the board dry, but, I like the challenge of capping each game and betting each game evenly to see where things stand at the conclusion of the season. So far, it's been a success, that's why I haven't change. What I am going to do every week is continue the Forecast as usual, but throw out the one game that I like the most followed by 2 more games. From a personal standpoint, my wagering is going to moderately fluctuate percentage wise on what's played on those three games, but that kind of information is meaningless on here, and a waste to talk about other than what is my strongest play followed by the next two.
We are starting this for the Week 9 Forecast, and I will keep everything in this thread (just for this week). The Top 3 games for each week are going to be called "The Warm Front". Hopefully this will help other people on the forum along the way. I know it's difficult sometimes to pick and choose from 10 or more games.
My card will be finalized within the hour.
Oh God.. you are such a tout
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Posted:
#117
This is what I have in store for the Week 9 Forecast, these plays are final.
"THE WARM FRONT"
POY DETROIT +4 AND ML
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +3
MIAMI +5.5
Early Games
Buffalo +2.5
Houston +2.5
Cleveland +5
Carolina +6.5
Arizona +9.5
Atlanta -9
Late Games
Seattle +6.5
Oakland -3
Sunday Night Game
Dallas +9
Monday Night Game
Cincinnati +4.5
Season Recap (68-46-2 ATS) 59.6%
Week 1 (9-6 ATS)(60%)
Week 2 (11-5 ATS)(68.7%)
Week 3 (10-6ATS)(62.5%)
Week 4 (9-5ATS) (64.2%)
Week 5 (9-5ATS) (64.2%)
Week 6 (7-5-2ATS)(58.3%)
Week 7 (6-8ATS)(42.8%)
Week 8 (7-6ATS)(53.8%)
Totals (1-1)
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Posted:
#118
Quote Originally Posted by URISS2302:
Oh God.. you are such a tout
Oh God.. you are such a tout
That's probably the most hilarious and unfortunate name I have ever been called in life. You're definitely an odd one, but keep things comical around here. I am glad you found your way to my threads. You're welcome anytime
I am making a slight adjustment to how I post my plays by posting my three best plays separately and that makes me a tout? Hilarious stuff buddy. No need to act with all this non-sense. My threads are clear that posting on here is nothing more than recreational. 0
Posted:
#119
Quote Originally Posted by ForecastinFloyd:
That's one of the major things I am concerned about in this contest, but I think the film from last weeks contest from both sides will help eliminate some of the errors that were made and even if the Jets get a good kick return or two back, those typically only result in 3pts from that offense.
That's one of the major things I am concerned about in this contest, but I think the film from last weeks contest from both sides will help eliminate some of the errors that were made and even if the Jets get a good kick return or two back, those typically only result in 3pts from that offense.
So your only concerned with Special teams>? your not worried the Lions are ranked almost dead last in rushing defense giving up nearly 5 yards a rush and over 130 yards per game.. the jets Of line isn't a worry? How bout the jets 3rd ranked rushing offense going up against an abysmal Lions rush defense? your not worried about the lions being almost dead last in the NFL rushing on offense going up against the 4th ranked jets rush defense giving up 88 yards per game and 3.3 per carry? How about Staffords 4.8 yards per pass numbers? How about the amount of sacks the Lions give up? How about, most importantly, player match ups? How about that Sanchez has only been hit (not sacked) 15 times compared to a Lions QB who has been hit 35 times (more than double)...How about the Jets being ranked 2nd in kick and punt returns?
You think Detroit will win the Turnover category? based on what? The Jets average +1.0 TO (3rd in the NFL) ratio per game... The Lions are near the bottom at 0.10
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Posted:
#120
Quote Originally Posted by ForecastinFloyd:
That's probably the most hilarious and unfortunate name I have ever been called in life. You're definitely an odd one, but keep things comical around here. I am glad you found your way to my threads. You're welcome anytime I am making a slight adjustment to how I post my plays by posting my three best plays separately and that makes me a tout? Hilarious stuff buddy. No need to act with all this non-sense. My threads are clear that posting on here is nothing more than recreational.
That's probably the most hilarious and unfortunate name I have ever been called in life. You're definitely an odd one, but keep things comical around here. I am glad you found your way to my threads. You're welcome anytime
I am making a slight adjustment to how I post my plays by posting my three best plays separately and that makes me a tout? Hilarious stuff buddy. No need to act with all this non-sense. My threads are clear that posting on here is nothing more than recreational. And yes when you Post "RARE POY PLAY" when in all actuality your first 5 games ever Posted in a row on this website were POY plays... That is comical... You are a tout.. especially when you pick the Lions which now has gotten you over 11,000 views on a thread not even Wednesday yet... You also have not provided ONE inteligent reason on how or why the Lions are such a huge play..100% tout
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Posted:
#121
Look, if you wanted to come into my thread and start talking civil without all the childish non-sense, I would be more open to discussing what these forums are form and the logic behind some of the plays or questions you may have. Unfortunately, with all this tout name calling non-sense and failing to actually do your homework on how I handle myself on here, you lose credibility in my eyes and certainly aren't worth discussing any logic behind any plays. There's plenty of people that disagree with my picks being that I play every game on the card, there's no reason to be so hostile if someone has a pick that's the opposite of the one you like and certainly no reason to go into the mode that you have gone in here.
Best of luck down the road, and with all your plays, I don't do the drama stuff. Just usually post my plays and move onto the next week and chime in when I feel it's necessary in a mature and unbiased manner.
Best of luck down the road, and with all your plays, I don't do the drama stuff. Just usually post my plays and move onto the next week and chime in when I feel it's necessary in a mature and unbiased manner.
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Posted:
#122
Quote Originally Posted by ForecastinFloyd:
Look, if you wanted to come into my thread and start talking civil without all the childish non-sense, I would be more open to discussing what these forums are form and the logic behind some of the plays or questions you may have. Unfortunately, with all this tout name calling non-sense and failing to actually do your homework on how I handle myself on here, you lose credibility in my eyes and certainly aren't worth discussing any logic behind any plays. There's plenty of people that disagree with my picks being that I play every game on the card, there's no reason to be so hostile if someone has a pick that's the opposite of the one you like and certainly no reason to go into the mode that you have gone in here.
Best of luck down the road, and with all your plays, I don't do the drama stuff. Just usually post my plays and move onto the next week and chime in when I feel it's necessary in a mature and unbiased manner.
Look, if you wanted to come into my thread and start talking civil without all the childish non-sense, I would be more open to discussing what these forums are form and the logic behind some of the plays or questions you may have. Unfortunately, with all this tout name calling non-sense and failing to actually do your homework on how I handle myself on here, you lose credibility in my eyes and certainly aren't worth discussing any logic behind any plays. There's plenty of people that disagree with my picks being that I play every game on the card, there's no reason to be so hostile if someone has a pick that's the opposite of the one you like and certainly no reason to go into the mode that you have gone in here.
Best of luck down the road, and with all your plays, I don't do the drama stuff. Just usually post my plays and move onto the next week and chime in when I feel it's necessary in a mature and unbiased manner.
I don't care if your pick is opposite of mine... r u kidding... There is a lot of people who have different picks then myself whom I wish GL every week... i;m not always right ... People who Right POY bother the f'ing shit out of me... especially when they Write "rare" POY when in all actuality your first 5 plays were POY... Stop trying to be the "good guy" .... provide some type of contribution with game/statistical/situational reason behind an absurd post
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I just dont see it.
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