Some thoughts:
Last night before the ASU receveiver couldnt hold onto the ball to cost me about 8u (still won 6), Lindy and were talking about NFL this week. I think we are a bit behind the curve and using the tease (as we should in low scoring games) to mask being on the wrong side a lot. Let's see if we can get ahead of the curve by looking at how this mornings games played out.
GB covers. GB is simply head and shoulders above eveyone else in the NFL. My initial reaction last night was taking the points after a hard fought game with ATL. Why? GB is the Alabama on the NFL. You don't bet against them until you have a hell of a better reason than "that seems like a lot of points. They will be DD favs all year. On them or lay off the game IMO, until something (injury etc) changes my mind. I don't know why I have this hero complex and want to pick spots against juggernauts - who am I trying to impress?
ATL covers, easily. I think you guys covered the max tease tho. The Cam Newton train rolled for 3 weeks. We got on last two weeks, but had to have in the backs of our minds that these trains ALWAYS come to a halt. CAR is not that good. Their D is porous. While they have solid offensive weapons, and you will find no one more down with Cam being great NOW, the linesmakers adjusted and 4 was simply not enough on the road at ATL (who despersately needed a win). The thing to do now, is see if we can still ride a few CAR overs until the totals get adjusted. Not saying that there will not be spots to bet CAR again, but you get no value right now.
Cincy is a 4-2 paper tiger. Beat CLE, IND and JAX. Lost to Denver (bad team but on the road and played them close) Arguable three of the worst teams in the nfl. and they got BUF is the let-down of all let down spots, and eked out a win. Still, everyone seems to be licking their chops to paly against the Colts and get some long ovcerdure for the beatings they took for years. Both teams are on fade, there is value in fading Cincy now. DO NOT buy into there #1 ranked defense. Please. SOS much?! Not so much with IND as those lines have been high all year.
SF beats Det outright. I told Lindy at the start of the season that the problem in SF was not Smith, But singletary and his run, run, throw on third and long, and then punt offense. Alex Smith is a talented QB who was in the absolutely wrong system for his talents. Asking him to During two minute drills, you could see him extend plays, get in a rythm and move the ball. Harbaugh is a smrt cookie and he kept him for a reason. Now that his teammates are believeing, and they can run and play a bit of D, this is a top tier team. Detroit just came off its coming our paty on MNF against the rival Bears. This was a really bad time to playON the Lions., but I think they covered the max tease. Still, the wrong side, and a week late. Not sure if we will get value with SF anymore, but they are certainly a play on team. I know that smith doesn't have great numbers, but 17-22 for 150 yds is accurate and just what this offense needs to get the job done. Detroit is good, no doubt, but not GB good.
Buffalo and the giants are like mirror images. They have defensive lapses that kill them, but they can both move the ball. Buffalo has been the better team so far and this was a great pick by lindy. If Fitz doesn't throw a pick while in FG n the last 4 minutes, my BUF/SF ML parlay might have come thru. Still, there is value fading the G-men. That line should have been a pk, not giving me a FG.
Pitt can not be counted on to cover large lines. Period. They are not that good. Their D is questionable, their line play is bad, and they can't run the ball. Lay TD's with this team at your own risk. On fade for a while. Was hoping they would kill Jax to get better lines but an only 4 point win might destroy the value.
Philly ekes out a 7 point win while getting 4 INT's! They stink until further notice. They have been overpriced and they get pounded every week. They covered this week which will encourage the pub to keep on pounding them, while I look for every conceivable way to fade them until they show me they are good.
Late games at the half. I was sorely tempted to play more as all these games looked like I have good edges. BAL should cover against a struggling, depleted HOU team, Oak should eventually destroy a bad Clevelnad team, Dallas is not capable of winning against a top tier team on the road until further notice. and NO is an awful road team.
This game is the most illustrative. TB was in an awful spot against an improving SF team. I bought the TB on the road as a dog trend (goods profitable trend last two years), and don't think it was a bad play last week, but with NO on deck, travel etc. It smelled different if I cared to take a wiff. NO barely wins, much less covers 6 pts on the road vs decent teams. 3rd road game in row for them. Public all over them thinking TB was shit becasue they lost to a bad SF tea,. Guess what: SF is GOOD, bad spot for TB, and TB wins outright today, as I told Lindy last night. Up 10 at the break.
So what about tonight. Minny, after 3 brutal losses, shat themselves against a very bad KC team, then finally got a win - a big one, where they put it together. Look inside the numbers and Minny can run, defend the run. Allen has 8.5 sacks. What does Chicago do well...nothing. After blowing that 14 pt lead to GB, with a 1-4 Minny team coming in...Don't get me wrong, I am not playing it, but Minny should dominate them tonight. I think the betting market has this one right.
Monday. While the Jets aren't that good, like Oakland today, they will take advantage of a really bad Miami team and look like world beaters. they win by 14+.
Hot Forum Topics
