Bator,
One question for you. By the way, I completely agree with your analysis but have this problem that bugs me when I go to sleep.
Historically, Patriots' 3 superbowl wins have not been by wide margins. Patriots 32 Panthers 29 Patriots 24 Eagles 21 Patriots 20 Rams 17. I understand that this is a completely different team and one that the NFL has never seen before. But the fact that they have the same coach in all 3 of those super bowl wins, doesn't that show you that Belichick likes to sit on leads and is content with it? He seems to coach the big game the same way all three times, conservative and more conservative. His game plan seems to be content with lets say a 10 pt lead.
Does the historical game plan of their coach in super bowls worry you with a 12 pt spread? Especially since Patriots defense is not that great?
My feeling (and it is a strong one) is that the game plan for this Super Bowl is to make the entire 4th quarter irrelevant except for the funny TV commercials. If Bill Belichick is the same man who re-inserted Tom Brady into a game this year after New England's 4th quarter lead had been cut to 21 points (October 21st at Miami), then I don't think he or his team will be sitting on any late leads this time around. Remember, this is the cutthroat Bill Belichick of 2007, a man whose team scored the final points in 12 of their first 14 victories, despite having large leads in almost every game. They also scored the last points in both playoff wins.
The Patriots to score last in the Super Bowl is a greatly underpriced prop bet at -160. ![]()
Bator,
One question for you. By the way, I completely agree with your analysis but have this problem that bugs me when I go to sleep.
Historically, Patriots' 3 superbowl wins have not been by wide margins. Patriots 32 Panthers 29 Patriots 24 Eagles 21 Patriots 20 Rams 17. I understand that this is a completely different team and one that the NFL has never seen before. But the fact that they have the same coach in all 3 of those super bowl wins, doesn't that show you that Belichick likes to sit on leads and is content with it? He seems to coach the big game the same way all three times, conservative and more conservative. His game plan seems to be content with lets say a 10 pt lead.
Does the historical game plan of their coach in super bowls worry you with a 12 pt spread? Especially since Patriots defense is not that great?
My feeling (and it is a strong one) is that the game plan for this Super Bowl is to make the entire 4th quarter irrelevant except for the funny TV commercials. If Bill Belichick is the same man who re-inserted Tom Brady into a game this year after New England's 4th quarter lead had been cut to 21 points (October 21st at Miami), then I don't think he or his team will be sitting on any late leads this time around. Remember, this is the cutthroat Bill Belichick of 2007, a man whose team scored the final points in 12 of their first 14 victories, despite having large leads in almost every game. They also scored the last points in both playoff wins.
The Patriots to score last in the Super Bowl is a greatly underpriced prop bet at -160. ![]()
andarmac99, if the haters' hopes hinge on the Giants making this game competitive, then I don't think I have much to worry about. Thank you for posting your writeup, which might have been a little too good. After reading it, I felt there were a couple of points I could no longer post because it would have sounded as if I'd directly lifted your work lol. I'm talking about your Point #4. For anyone who hasn't yet checked out andarmac99's thread, it is recommended reading.
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andarmac99, if the haters' hopes hinge on the Giants making this game competitive, then I don't think I have much to worry about. Thank you for posting your writeup, which might have been a little too good. After reading it, I felt there were a couple of points I could no longer post because it would have sounded as if I'd directly lifted your work lol. I'm talking about your Point #4. For anyone who hasn't yet checked out andarmac99's thread, it is recommended reading.
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nosleeptil, there was virtually no chance of me finishing this season in the same fashion as last year. A season like 2006 doesn't come along often. I was lucky to ride underrated covering machines like New Orleans and Philadelphia for awhile, and then I smartened up and turned on the Saints in the NFC title game. Similarly, I backed the Patriots big in San Diego but turned on them, too, just in time. A perfect ending would have had the Colts winning but not covering in the Super Bowl, but alas, in the end I had to accept that I wasn't perfect. That wasn't easy to do. ![]()
nosleeptil, there was virtually no chance of me finishing this season in the same fashion as last year. A season like 2006 doesn't come along often. I was lucky to ride underrated covering machines like New Orleans and Philadelphia for awhile, and then I smartened up and turned on the Saints in the NFC title game. Similarly, I backed the Patriots big in San Diego but turned on them, too, just in time. A perfect ending would have had the Colts winning but not covering in the Super Bowl, but alas, in the end I had to accept that I wasn't perfect. That wasn't easy to do. ![]()
Beningo88, I don't think of cubsin08 as just another idiot. He's like the unruly drooling boy who rides the small bus to school. He doesn't know any better, but he means no harm.
Beningo88, I don't think of cubsin08 as just another idiot. He's like the unruly drooling boy who rides the small bus to school. He doesn't know any better, but he means no harm.
You were late yesterday morning. I wouldn't make it a habit, Spin.
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You were late yesterday morning. I wouldn't make it a habit, Spin.
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The Patriots to score last in the Super Bowl is a greatly underpriced prop bet at -160
Damn, what a stat.
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The Patriots to score last in the Super Bowl is a greatly underpriced prop bet at -160
Damn, what a stat.
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Alright, but just a couple hundred.
Alright, but just a couple hundred.
dude I know what you mean. I was gonna take the points and hope the Gmen can get a back door. but fnck. everyone and I mean everyone seems to think blow out. and it will be over early.
dude I know what you mean. I was gonna take the points and hope the Gmen can get a back door. but fnck. everyone and I mean everyone seems to think blow out. and it will be over early.
No, I haven't. Modern day Vegas sportsbooks have no balls and like to keep their lines all the same flavor - vanilla.
No, I haven't. Modern day Vegas sportsbooks have no balls and like to keep their lines all the same flavor - vanilla.
160 units to win 40. So instead of putting approximately 100 units on the Patriots minus the points, I'll do just half that.
160 units to win 40. So instead of putting approximately 100 units on the Patriots minus the points, I'll do just half that.
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I love all the gutless Pats win but Giants cover predictions on TV and in print.
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I love all the gutless Pats win but Giants cover predictions on TV and in print.
Great question. If there are, I'd like to know, too! That's important!
Great question. If there are, I'd like to know, too! That's important!
"The Patriots to score last in the Super Bowl is a greatly underpriced prop bet at -160.
"
MrBator,
Do you have any other prop bets that you like?![]()
"The Patriots to score last in the Super Bowl is a greatly underpriced prop bet at -160.
"
MrBator,
Do you have any other prop bets that you like?![]()
"The Patriots to score last in the Super Bowl is a greatly underpriced prop bet at -160.
"
MrBator,
Do you have any other prop bets that you like?![]()
Yes, check for my thread, "MrBator's Super Bowl XLII prop bet possibilities......"
"The Patriots to score last in the Super Bowl is a greatly underpriced prop bet at -160.
"
MrBator,
Do you have any other prop bets that you like?![]()
Yes, check for my thread, "MrBator's Super Bowl XLII prop bet possibilities......"

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