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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    Please someone tell me how to win

    «First Previous 123 ... 567
    DB51daBEARS
    vanzack
    juveunits
    packersbackers
    Aronrogers
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    DB51daBEARS
    DB51daBEARS
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2021 - 2:06 PM ET #151

    Quote Originally Posted by mrusso:

     @Eddy_Winslow  I will. Follow EW in NCAA hoops, no work required there, and you're against investing time. There are others too but start slowly grasshopper

    Second that mrusso !!!!

    an_cheers  peace_5

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    Quote Originally Posted by mrusso:

     @Eddy_Winslow  I will. Follow EW in NCAA hoops, no work required there, and you're against investing time. There are others too but start slowly grasshopper

    Second that mrusso !!!!

    an_cheers  peace_5

     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2021 - 2:10 PM ET #152

    Pipedreaming - call someone who loves you to talk about this stuff.  I didn't realize you were in a mental state that others here seem to feel you are.

    If so, call someone now.

    peace_5

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    Pipedreaming - call someone who loves you to talk about this stuff.  I didn't realize you were in a mental state that others here seem to feel you are.

    If so, call someone now.

    peace_5

     
    juveunits
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2021 - 3:12 PM ET #153

    Quote Originally Posted by itajai:

    You are not alone. 98% of the bettors lose money and reload. Even if they try to hang it up, they will find a way to get back in the game. The psychology of gambling works like that. You have to understand that over 98% of sports bettors are life time down and will continue to lose in the future as well. Now if you cruise around gambling communities like covers forum or other forums, social media etc, you will see many acting like know it all and have it figured it out but REMEMBER over 98% are losing and when you cruise here, you decisions will align with the heard mentality. There are few who wins consistently but it doesn't matter, even with those picks the losing gamblers will find a way to lose because they do not have the discipline or self control or patience for the long term game. Even those who manage to do it will crack after a week or month and mess it up because all the articles or posts that you see in sites like this or forum or social media will guide make you take more wrong decisions that right ones.  Even those with decent handicapping skill will end up losing in the long run because they will lose discipline/self control after a hot run or a cold run. Bettors need to work on themselves rather than doing more research on games. Research on games on communities like this will make you go with heard mentality and over your life time you will be with the 98% than the few that wins. Even if your bankroll is small, you need to learn to use a conservative money management strategy. Your bet size may seem small but if you use a compounding strategy like the one explained here you will grow your bankroll small. Use spreadsheet like the one in that article with your picks to stay disciplined. Remember that no one hits 60% (assuming the average odds of the game that they play are -110 or better) over long term (over 1000 bet sample size) regardless of what these communities and  marketers may make you believe! Most people who make a living on sports betting hit 56% or less. There are many who make a living hitting 48 to 50% too but their average odds are the bets better than even. For example, take a look at this spreadsheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15CSvrT3osJos4P-Fni102v5fvZqaqm8Q/edit#gid=1712378585 where 3% compounding money management was used to turn 5k into $1 million in 3 years and about 2000 bets. The hit rate during the 3 years just around 53% but the feat was accomplished by betting no more than 3% on any game but the compounding factor pays off if you are patient. Now if you give the same picks to to typical gambler, they will get wiped out in the first losing stretch because they won't have the patience to stay that disciplined long term. But if you stay disciplined and control all your urges, you will never have to reload your account again and you will get limited in many books. Even with a $500 bankroll that translates to a growth of 100k after 3 years. But when you start with your $500 bankroll, during the early stages you will be betting less than $15 per game and this is the hard part for most bettors because sooner or later they will run into some game of the year type bet that is getting hyped in these communities and make a big bet to lose the winnings that was slowly accumulated. Next they will get desperate and try to get those losses back and you know the drill. Same happens even if they luckily win that hype bet because that will lead them to chase more of those big pay days and they will get wiped out fast. I recommend reading all the articles at Betting Resource, it should help with discipline.

     

    Why is everyone ignoring this post. It is very interesting

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    Quote Originally Posted by itajai:

    You are not alone. 98% of the bettors lose money and reload. Even if they try to hang it up, they will find a way to get back in the game. The psychology of gambling works like that. You have to understand that over 98% of sports bettors are life time down and will continue to lose in the future as well. Now if you cruise around gambling communities like covers forum or other forums, social media etc, you will see many acting like know it all and have it figured it out but REMEMBER over 98% are losing and when you cruise here, you decisions will align with the heard mentality. There are few who wins consistently but it doesn't matter, even with those picks the losing gamblers will find a way to lose because they do not have the discipline or self control or patience for the long term game. Even those who manage to do it will crack after a week or month and mess it up because all the articles or posts that you see in sites like this or forum or social media will guide make you take more wrong decisions that right ones.  Even those with decent handicapping skill will end up losing in the long run because they will lose discipline/self control after a hot run or a cold run. Bettors need to work on themselves rather than doing more research on games. Research on games on communities like this will make you go with heard mentality and over your life time you will be with the 98% than the few that wins. Even if your bankroll is small, you need to learn to use a conservative money management strategy. Your bet size may seem small but if you use a compounding strategy like the one explained here you will grow your bankroll small. Use spreadsheet like the one in that article with your picks to stay disciplined. Remember that no one hits 60% (assuming the average odds of the game that they play are -110 or better) over long term (over 1000 bet sample size) regardless of what these communities and  marketers may make you believe! Most people who make a living on sports betting hit 56% or less. There are many who make a living hitting 48 to 50% too but their average odds are the bets better than even. For example, take a look at this spreadsheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15CSvrT3osJos4P-Fni102v5fvZqaqm8Q/edit#gid=1712378585 where 3% compounding money management was used to turn 5k into $1 million in 3 years and about 2000 bets. The hit rate during the 3 years just around 53% but the feat was accomplished by betting no more than 3% on any game but the compounding factor pays off if you are patient. Now if you give the same picks to to typical gambler, they will get wiped out in the first losing stretch because they won't have the patience to stay that disciplined long term. But if you stay disciplined and control all your urges, you will never have to reload your account again and you will get limited in many books. Even with a $500 bankroll that translates to a growth of 100k after 3 years. But when you start with your $500 bankroll, during the early stages you will be betting less than $15 per game and this is the hard part for most bettors because sooner or later they will run into some game of the year type bet that is getting hyped in these communities and make a big bet to lose the winnings that was slowly accumulated. Next they will get desperate and try to get those losses back and you know the drill. Same happens even if they luckily win that hype bet because that will lead them to chase more of those big pay days and they will get wiped out fast. I recommend reading all the articles at Betting Resource, it should help with discipline.

     

    Why is everyone ignoring this post. It is very interesting

     
    packersbackers
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2021 - 3:31 PM ET #154

    @juveunits

     Because it doesn't apply to the OP's true needs. an_light

    Why is everyone ignoring the guy is suicidal? That's the most important thing here.

    Although this is all likely a troll job by a very lonely person, giving the guy betting advice at this point is useless

    MAGAm Yisrael Chai
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    @juveunits

     Because it doesn't apply to the OP's true needs. an_light

    Why is everyone ignoring the guy is suicidal? That's the most important thing here.

    Although this is all likely a troll job by a very lonely person, giving the guy betting advice at this point is useless

     
    juveunits
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2021 - 3:40 PM ET #155

    @packersbackers

     I guess you have a point

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    @packersbackers

     I guess you have a point

     
    Aronrogers
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2021 - 4:02 PM ET #156

    @PipeDreaming

     I can help watch my posted plays I been doing real good in NFL I don't win every game  in college watch my hammer plays 4-0  gl

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    @PipeDreaming

     I can help watch my posted plays I been doing real good in NFL I don't win every game  in college watch my hammer plays 4-0  gl

     
    Battalion74
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2021 - 4:30 PM ET #157

    @PipeDreaming

    You're a young kid, late teens or early twenties.  You blew your summer job money on baseball, chased college and now are flat broke playing pro ball.  Now life is over because the paper route is too slow.  Need a get rich scheme and fast.  How am I doing so far?  Do you see your parents as pathetic, lazy people?  You don't, so why do you think it's OK you behave like you do?

    Never lie.  It's life lesson #1.  Once you get caught, you're finished.  You lose all credibility and more importantly, you lose respect.  

    This forum is about asking questions and engaging in dialogue (although that is a stretch sometimes), not being a gypsy on the freeway off-ramp begging for dollar bills. 

    It's why a lot of oldies can't stand the millennial generation; wanting the eye candy right away like entitled brats.  No effort, no regard, just me me me, want want want.  

    For gods sakes kid... you're off to a bad start here.  Open a new account start over and ask questions, don't ask for answers.

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    @PipeDreaming

    You're a young kid, late teens or early twenties.  You blew your summer job money on baseball, chased college and now are flat broke playing pro ball.  Now life is over because the paper route is too slow.  Need a get rich scheme and fast.  How am I doing so far?  Do you see your parents as pathetic, lazy people?  You don't, so why do you think it's OK you behave like you do?

    Never lie.  It's life lesson #1.  Once you get caught, you're finished.  You lose all credibility and more importantly, you lose respect.  

    This forum is about asking questions and engaging in dialogue (although that is a stretch sometimes), not being a gypsy on the freeway off-ramp begging for dollar bills. 

    It's why a lot of oldies can't stand the millennial generation; wanting the eye candy right away like entitled brats.  No effort, no regard, just me me me, want want want.  

    For gods sakes kid... you're off to a bad start here.  Open a new account start over and ask questions, don't ask for answers.

     
    Holyh3llz
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2021 - 7:33 PM ET #158

    Quote Originally Posted by rucrazy:

    @PipeDreaming  I’m 61 and come from a family tree of addicts…almost all of them alcohol. Gambling has ruined my life to be sure. That said, I’ve accepted that it’s in my DNA and I still enjoy it. Here’s what I know from experience: 1) You’re an addict…most of us here are. Accept it and decide if you still want to gamble 2) The thrill of victory is never as thrilling as the agony of defeat is agonizing. You’re chasing $200K which accentuates this fact. You’ll win $1000 and feel nothing…”I’m still down $1999K” mentality….lose $100 and spend another $1000 chasing because, well, why not, “it’s just what happens to me” 3) THE WORST PART for me…If I was destined to be an addict, why’d I have to choose gambling? I could have carried on the family tradition and picked up a bottle. Society forgives alcoholics. They even pity those afflicted because they “have a disease”. Everyone knows an alcoholic. Gamblers on the other hand…we live quietly with our guilt and shame. After all, we just make stupid decisions and are reckless with our money…we are degenerates. Everyone is ok with being drunk…but no one wants the disgrace of being broke. 4) Here’s my mantra - Alcoholics can spend $7 a day getting drunk…stop drinking and get their sobriety back. If you stop gambling you’ll NEVER get your money back.
    this is a great post ... thank you for this.

     

    I agree especially with number 2. That’s what I tried saying yesterday but you said it a lot better then I did.  

     

    theres an amazing amount of great advice in this thread now.

     

    sadly I think packers backer is right and he’s trolling...

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    Quote Originally Posted by rucrazy:

    @PipeDreaming  I’m 61 and come from a family tree of addicts…almost all of them alcohol. Gambling has ruined my life to be sure. That said, I’ve accepted that it’s in my DNA and I still enjoy it. Here’s what I know from experience: 1) You’re an addict…most of us here are. Accept it and decide if you still want to gamble 2) The thrill of victory is never as thrilling as the agony of defeat is agonizing. You’re chasing $200K which accentuates this fact. You’ll win $1000 and feel nothing…”I’m still down $1999K” mentality….lose $100 and spend another $1000 chasing because, well, why not, “it’s just what happens to me” 3) THE WORST PART for me…If I was destined to be an addict, why’d I have to choose gambling? I could have carried on the family tradition and picked up a bottle. Society forgives alcoholics. They even pity those afflicted because they “have a disease”. Everyone knows an alcoholic. Gamblers on the other hand…we live quietly with our guilt and shame. After all, we just make stupid decisions and are reckless with our money…we are degenerates. Everyone is ok with being drunk…but no one wants the disgrace of being broke. 4) Here’s my mantra - Alcoholics can spend $7 a day getting drunk…stop drinking and get their sobriety back. If you stop gambling you’ll NEVER get your money back.
    this is a great post ... thank you for this.

     

    I agree especially with number 2. That’s what I tried saying yesterday but you said it a lot better then I did.  

     

    theres an amazing amount of great advice in this thread now.

     

    sadly I think packers backer is right and he’s trolling...

     
    MIZARD
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2021 - 7:57 PM ET #159

    @itajai

     

    i dont care what strategy youre using no shot he turned that kind of a roi on a 50% w/l the math does not add up.

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    @itajai

     

    i dont care what strategy youre using no shot he turned that kind of a roi on a 50% w/l the math does not add up.

     
    NevadaBookmaker
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2021 - 8:11 PM ET #160

    Quote Originally Posted by PipeDreaming:

    @NevadaBookmaker  Hey Nevadabookmaker I really appreciate the advice. I think it's time for a new hobby. You guys all know what I am thinking. 5 grand on yankees tomorrow but we all know that is not normal bc once I am broke I am really gonna be crying. I have at least a little cushion to quit and keep learning my programming profession

    I bet the Yankees -118 yesterday.

    clover

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    Quote Originally Posted by PipeDreaming:

    @NevadaBookmaker  Hey Nevadabookmaker I really appreciate the advice. I think it's time for a new hobby. You guys all know what I am thinking. 5 grand on yankees tomorrow but we all know that is not normal bc once I am broke I am really gonna be crying. I have at least a little cushion to quit and keep learning my programming profession

    I bet the Yankees -118 yesterday.

    clover

     
    FCF316
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2021 - 8:30 PM ET #161

    It took 4 weeks but here we go, another thread that takes over the NFL forum and offers nothing. I'm still not even sure what you want? Advice? Strategy? Cause it of course was gonna turn into a mix of bashing and people bragging, then a fight over something somebody said in their advice to you. If what you really want is to know how to be good at this, you kinda already know right?

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    It took 4 weeks but here we go, another thread that takes over the NFL forum and offers nothing. I'm still not even sure what you want? Advice? Strategy? Cause it of course was gonna turn into a mix of bashing and people bragging, then a fight over something somebody said in their advice to you. If what you really want is to know how to be good at this, you kinda already know right?

     
    gambling-devil
    gambling-devil
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2021 - 9:53 PM ET #162

    Quote Originally Posted by Eddy_Winslow:

    will someone just tell him how to win already...

    It is easy! Save the 15K and tail Eddy 1K every game on NCAAB.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Eddy_Winslow:

    will someone just tell him how to win already...

    It is easy! Save the 15K and tail Eddy 1K every game on NCAAB.

     
    415m
    415m
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2021 - 9:57 PM ET #163

    @gambling-devil

     peace_5

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    @gambling-devil

     peace_5

     
    melossinglet
    melossinglet
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    Posted: Oct. 6, 2021 - 12:19 AM ET #164

    Quote Originally Posted by budwiser:

    gonna b all over the wilder fury fight. as vanzack said, watch the film. it's all over espn now, watch closely what these guys are saying and doing. and enjoy the fight, without going into the hole.

     

    who you taking mr. budwiser?i aint been paying attention to it but i realise fury is the overwhelming favourite and wilder is pretty much written off in the media.

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    Quote Originally Posted by budwiser:

    gonna b all over the wilder fury fight. as vanzack said, watch the film. it's all over espn now, watch closely what these guys are saying and doing. and enjoy the fight, without going into the hole.

     

    who you taking mr. budwiser?i aint been paying attention to it but i realise fury is the overwhelming favourite and wilder is pretty much written off in the media.

     
    PipeDreaming
    PipeDreaming
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    Posted: Oct. 6, 2021 - 1:53 AM ET #165

    @Originalsix88

     Tx brother

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    @Originalsix88

     Tx brother

     
    PipeDreaming
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    Posted: Oct. 6, 2021 - 1:54 AM ET #166

    @Battalion74

     No late 30s man and a late start on life pretty fucked

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    @Battalion74

     No late 30s man and a late start on life pretty fucked

     
    PipeDreaming
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    Posted: Oct. 6, 2021 - 1:56 AM ET #167

    @budwiser

     Thanks I like wilder and ur right espn does offer good stuff I think. 

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    @budwiser

     Thanks I like wilder and ur right espn does offer good stuff I think. 

     
    PipeDreaming
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    Posted: Oct. 6, 2021 - 1:57 AM ET #168

    @Nedtan

     I'm right there with u brother 

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    @Nedtan

     I'm right there with u brother 

     
    PipeDreaming
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    Posted: Oct. 6, 2021 - 1:58 AM ET #169

    @DontBetTheVols

     Thank you so much this thread really really makes me appreciate you all

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    @DontBetTheVols

     Thank you so much this thread really really makes me appreciate you all

     
    PipeDreaming
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    Posted: Oct. 6, 2021 - 2:01 AM ET #170

    @dilaudid8

     I sent u a friend request I couldn't just dm it didn't allow me

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    @dilaudid8

     I sent u a friend request I couldn't just dm it didn't allow me

     
    masterkush
    masterkush
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    Posted: Oct. 6, 2021 - 6:35 AM ET #171

    Go get some box bro and take a break.

     

    It really works.

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    Go get some box bro and take a break.

     

    It really works.

     
     
    ThrowDemDarts
    ThrowDemDarts
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    Posted: Oct. 6, 2021 - 3:58 PM ET #172

    It's tough. People have this belief that lines are set for equal action. They aren't. It's all about statistics. There's a reason they can offer a billion props, live betting, cash outs, etc... because they do a bottom up calculation and understand the probabilities of everything.


    But understanding their calculations are based on performance probabilities and historical situational data, the one advantage you can have is having a deep enough understanding of the game and matchups that you can understand certain motivations and mentalities of teams/players. It's hard to do but there are guys on this site and around that watch enough sports to have good insight in to this stuff. I certainly do not. And if you don't, and you don't have your own sophisticated algorithm, it's just like flipping coins, and if you are a public type dude, typically you're betting against where the extra probability is. 

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    It's tough. People have this belief that lines are set for equal action. They aren't. It's all about statistics. There's a reason they can offer a billion props, live betting, cash outs, etc... because they do a bottom up calculation and understand the probabilities of everything.


    But understanding their calculations are based on performance probabilities and historical situational data, the one advantage you can have is having a deep enough understanding of the game and matchups that you can understand certain motivations and mentalities of teams/players. It's hard to do but there are guys on this site and around that watch enough sports to have good insight in to this stuff. I certainly do not. And if you don't, and you don't have your own sophisticated algorithm, it's just like flipping coins, and if you are a public type dude, typically you're betting against where the extra probability is. 

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