Posted:
#1826
Didn't you put in another 550 bet on the under?
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phixer's nfl
Posted:
#1834
Quote Originally Posted by phixer:
one thing i wanna add. with me or on own - please stop calculating stats and trends and homedogs and awayunderdogs etc.... those are the tools of trade to convince you. the only trend is , was and here to stay - vegas+nfl interest. the numbers we're given are not important. the vegas interest is! gl
one thing i wanna add. with me or on own - please stop calculating stats and trends and homedogs and awayunderdogs etc.... those are the tools of trade to convince you. the only trend is , was and here to stay - vegas+nfl interest. the numbers we're given are not important. the vegas interest is! gl
This is interesting because I made money at the END of the basketball and baseball seasons with such trends (home fave, away underdog, after a loss, etc) I think it doesn't work in football because the sample size is so small, they only play 16 games. However, if you took these trends in basketb and baseb, starting somewhere at 33-51% through the season, I believe there is money to be made on it.
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Posted:
#1835
Quote Originally Posted by knight703:
Never bet unders.
Its healthier to watch a game and want both teams to score and do well opposed to watching a game stressing if anyone gets in the redzone.
Many will disagree.
And if your betting a under and a side ehhh forget that misery rooting for your team then not wanting them to score at a certain point.
Cmon... why even put yourself thru it
Never bet unders.
Its healthier to watch a game and want both teams to score and do well opposed to watching a game stressing if anyone gets in the redzone.
Many will disagree.
And if your betting a under and a side ehhh forget that misery rooting for your team then not wanting them to score at a certain point.
Cmon... why even put yourself thru it
This is perhaps the best quote of the week! I totally agree, can't watch any games that I go under on. That game clock just doesn't move fast enough!! LOL
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Posted:
#1845
Hey Phix, first of all; I highly respect all you do. I am following you for a while and really impressed from your modest work ethics, and I do believe you are quite irreplaceable in what you do.
I wanted to ask you about the binary option webinars. I remember you promising to have it up soon and I've been really looking forward to it, hoping to get an answer soon.
Cheers 
0
Posted:
#1846
Quote Originally Posted by OneWhoKnows:
Hey Phix, first of all; I highly respect all you do. I am following you for a while and really impressed from your modest work ethics, and I do believe you are quite irreplaceable in what you do.
Hey Phix, first of all; I highly respect all you do. I am following you for a while and really impressed from your modest work ethics, and I do believe you are quite irreplaceable in what you do.
I wanted to ask you about the binary option webinars. I remember you promising to have it up soon and I've been really looking forward to it, hoping to get an answer soon.
Cheers
i tried to convince mr norman to conduct the first webinar for sportsbettors interested in binaries on 11th of this month - but he is very busy man and as far as i see it - its gonna be on 27th of december. i will have further detai;ls soon enough
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Posted:
#1848
Just came across an old paper by UC-Harvard guys titled "Identifying investor sentiment from price paths - the case of football betting".
They identify several players in the market and their (presumably) rational interests.
My understanding is that casinos (as independent and competing market makers and dealers) are mostly interested in
creating a balanced book and NFL's main goal is creating conditions to sell crap (with uncertainty as their primary tool).
Mr. Phixer, what is your definition of "Vegas": analysts setting lines, casinos making markets, big players (or sindicates) trying to exploit inefficiences in lines, or some unidentified interests
with access to information not available to general public?
That would be very educational.
Thank you
They identify several players in the market and their (presumably) rational interests.
My understanding is that casinos (as independent and competing market makers and dealers) are mostly interested in
creating a balanced book and NFL's main goal is creating conditions to sell crap (with uncertainty as their primary tool).
Mr. Phixer, what is your definition of "Vegas": analysts setting lines, casinos making markets, big players (or sindicates) trying to exploit inefficiences in lines, or some unidentified interests
with access to information not available to general public?
That would be very educational.
Thank you
0
Posted:
#1849
the answer to that is a bit complex and i tried to address the issue beforehand.
first of all when you're talking about balanced book - that is absolutely correct and easiest way to make the money from the juice. but, despite the true and candid efforts to balance the books by adjusting the lines and prices so additional market can be acquired to create a balance between sides - it happens that imbalance will stay and that way the books are exposed to the risk of being hit. primary "hitters" are the "wise guys" - those that attempt to fix the games by influencing some players or the refs by blackmailing or other tools (not paying them - that way you can't get the result). so, in order to defend the books - lvsc has to cooperate with nfl to identify from the beginning the "weak link". from here on - the path is open to cooperation and those of the games most popular are exactly the games prone to fixing and counter fixing. there are also other kind of wise guys who try to middle and those usually are asian triads who work in full cooperation with each other and drive the lines so they can middle it.
now, all i wrote is a crap and please do not take it seriously and dont give me here million comments about how delusioned i am. i know i am . i know everything is straight up sports and i know i invent all this only to get more popularity here.
thanks for the stage for my delusional statements and please forget all i said
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