Posted:
#476
Quote Originally Posted by phixer:
This sentence is from the book I began writing after striking a deal with a well known publisher -
.....the concept at the core of the relationship between the money wagered and the outcome of a sporting event is often misrepresented by the interested parties and therefore misunderstood by the general public........
The best example still fresh in our memory is the game in London between the Jags and the Bills.
The line released by the oddsmakers/traders who today rely on algorithms rather than human factors - was the Bills -6 hoping that is the line that will split the number of the bettors and hopefully the money evenly so the books and Vegas casinos and hotels will have easy time collecting the juice in the middle and moving on to deal with other unbalanced bets.
Well, that didn't happen and the books began covering themselves by placing excess money bets with "Vegas " (conditional name for those who are taking a risk at taking the excess money and have the capacity to influence the result the way they will not lose by paying the side with excess money on it).
Once "Vegas" saw it had no choice - it took a decision to draw even more money in because they obviously need some more money to influence the result and lowered the line on already a publicly favored Bills to -4.5, -4, and finally closed at -3. we all know how the game ended.
Exactly the same happened with the game in Tennessee. exactly the same scenario. Although - the Titans didn't win the game SU - the Falcons point shaving machine worked flawlessly.
True, sometimes wise guys have a stronger say as to how the game will end if they have some player/s or a coach/es, or the refs that owe a gambling debt or other debts, but usually that happens on rare occasions.
The conclusion? The money influences the result and not the opposite.
But how do we know where the money is on.We all know that no bookie in his right mind will not let you know the true numbers. Well, here is the punch line - the "Vegas" got us used to think that the most popular bet is the one to win and that is how public money gets burned time after time while in reality it is the opposite. When they have no choice but not to lose - they won't lose. And you know how at the end all stay with "wow" and forget that next week.
All the Raven's matches this season were decided by 5 or less points. They didn't win ATS yet. The teams both teams encountered are different strength wise and the Ravens can turn on their defense if they need to and tonight they need you as for my calculation the game should end at 26-25 to either side but I do think that the Ravens have a shot here.
Another interesting stat is the relationship between those two organizations. Pay attention to this: the Ravens are 4-1 SU against the Cardinals in last 5 games dating back to 1997 and at the same time are 1-4 ATS. Point shaving we said? So we said. Another factor that helps us in our pick is the famous "Arizona" is gonna come up all fired up after a loss in Pittsburgh". Well, I think that train has already left the station.
This is a 10 Units Play
BAL Ravens +10 -110 1100$
win +1000$
0
some learn fast, some slow and some never learn.
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