Like you say eddy they are many variables to consider. No system is 100%. I thank you for the system it really seems to be a good one. Thanks Roberto for doing the math. You have to take every system at face value, especially a totals system, because they may some wacky things happen and variables such as the weather in the giants-philly game. Again thanks eddy I like the system, the bottom line is all that really matters.
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Like you say eddy they are many variables to consider. No system is 100%. I thank you for the system it really seems to be a good one. Thanks Roberto for doing the math. You have to take every system at face value, especially a totals system, because they may some wacky things happen and variables such as the weather in the giants-philly game. Again thanks eddy I like the system, the bottom line is all that really matters.
Take it easy there tampa tony,We still got some time, or Do the games start at 12 at the double tree hotel over there in tampa??? Ha ha JK i Love Tampa, and the double tree!
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Take it easy there tampa tony,We still got some time, or Do the games start at 12 at the double tree hotel over there in tampa??? Ha ha JK i Love Tampa, and the double tree!
5 strongest plays based on largest margin of difference
between established & actual game " totals "
Philadelphia @ New York Giants :
Play Over ( Diff + 13.8 )
Tampa Bay @ Carolina :
Play Over ( Diff + 12.1 / 11.6 )
StLouis @ Arizona
Play Under ( Diff - 9.5 / 10 )
Cinccinnati @ Indianapolis
Play Under ( Diff - 9.5 / 10 )
Washington @ Baltimore
PlayOver ( Diff + 9.9 / 9.1 )
Hey...did the defensive math for CIN/IND and WAS/BALT and they still work. The defensive average for CIN/IND for the last 7 mixed with offensive came to 38.5. It was coincidentally almost the same for WAS/BALT at 38.6
So...
You're still getting a field goal advantage for both games.
Also, for a little non-scientific analysis, I'm in Manhattan now and there hasn't been a 40-50 mph gust of wind all day. I'm still over in that game.
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Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:
Summary:
5 strongest plays based on largest margin of difference
between established & actual game " totals "
Philadelphia @ New York Giants :
Play Over ( Diff + 13.8 )
Tampa Bay @ Carolina :
Play Over ( Diff + 12.1 / 11.6 )
StLouis @ Arizona
Play Under ( Diff - 9.5 / 10 )
Cinccinnati @ Indianapolis
Play Under ( Diff - 9.5 / 10 )
Washington @ Baltimore
PlayOver ( Diff + 9.9 / 9.1 )
Hey...did the defensive math for CIN/IND and WAS/BALT and they still work. The defensive average for CIN/IND for the last 7 mixed with offensive came to 38.5. It was coincidentally almost the same for WAS/BALT at 38.6
So...
You're still getting a field goal advantage for both games.
Also, for a little non-scientific analysis, I'm in Manhattan now and there hasn't been a 40-50 mph gust of wind all day. I'm still over in that game.
I may not even play these depending on what happens early, My weeks been good, and any gambler knows when to get out and cash in. Greed is a gamblers worst nightmare!! GL today guys.
The strongest play here is the Jets game, in my opinion
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My plays for the late games will be as follows:
Mia/BUF NOplay
NYJ/SF over
STL/ARZ under
NE/SEA under
KC/DEN under
DAL/PIT Noplay
I may not even play these depending on what happens early, My weeks been good, and any gambler knows when to get out and cash in. Greed is a gamblers worst nightmare!! GL today guys.
The strongest play here is the Jets game, in my opinion
thats good news about the weather but im still stayin away from that one, Not for nothing but, Manhattan is a little ways from east rutherford, Im as far south of east rutherford as you are north and the wind has been relentless all day. But about that tease, that does sound good, but remember they call it a tease for a reason. Nothings automatic,
GL on your plays today buddy.
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wrongway
thats good news about the weather but im still stayin away from that one, Not for nothing but, Manhattan is a little ways from east rutherford, Im as far south of east rutherford as you are north and the wind has been relentless all day. But about that tease, that does sound good, but remember they call it a tease for a reason. Nothings automatic,
IT's really simple just basically all math but it was nearly flawless this weekend in nfl and if you have a few minutes and want to do some minimum math work its as easy as that. Heres and example take tonights matchup SD vs. OAK 42, WHat you do is add up point totals for sd and oak last 5-7 games individually come up with an average Add the two teams avg's together and if it exceeds the point total for that game take over, if its less than the total for that game go under simple as that. IF you have some time, test the system with past results.
The only game that didnt win on sunday wiht this system, pushed (balt)
GL to all......Any questions or feedback are welcomed
Honestly, this is the most retarded system that I have ever seen. The reason why you think this system works is because your sample size is so small. If you do this sample for 10,000 games, you'll see that it works out to around 50%. If you want a working system, it needs to hit 60% for 10,000 games, otherwise you're just biased and going to lose money. You want the system to work so you'll find exceptions to the rule and start bending the rules of your system to make it fit to up your winning percentage. Ex: Average of seven games, when the weather is below 65 degrees and the home team isn't from the Northeast.
I feel bad for all these people that are going to put money on your system. To think that Vegas, which has billions of dollars to invest in its line formulation systems, can be beaten by a one line formula is just naive.
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Quote Originally Posted by eddys2121:
IT's really simple just basically all math but it was nearly flawless this weekend in nfl and if you have a few minutes and want to do some minimum math work its as easy as that. Heres and example take tonights matchup SD vs. OAK 42, WHat you do is add up point totals for sd and oak last 5-7 games individually come up with an average Add the two teams avg's together and if it exceeds the point total for that game take over, if its less than the total for that game go under simple as that. IF you have some time, test the system with past results.
The only game that didnt win on sunday wiht this system, pushed (balt)
GL to all......Any questions or feedback are welcomed
Honestly, this is the most retarded system that I have ever seen. The reason why you think this system works is because your sample size is so small. If you do this sample for 10,000 games, you'll see that it works out to around 50%. If you want a working system, it needs to hit 60% for 10,000 games, otherwise you're just biased and going to lose money. You want the system to work so you'll find exceptions to the rule and start bending the rules of your system to make it fit to up your winning percentage. Ex: Average of seven games, when the weather is below 65 degrees and the home team isn't from the Northeast.
I feel bad for all these people that are going to put money on your system. To think that Vegas, which has billions of dollars to invest in its line formulation systems, can be beaten by a one line formula is just naive.
It is a very interesting math system which will help and not to loose more $$$$. If some one had time and figure out each games it would be a lot of fun I definitely try this coming week. Thanks for posting Oh By the way as you said
This Monday Night football what do you think.
Over rite base on your calculation.
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It is a very interesting math system which will help and not to loose more $$$$. If some one had time and figure out each games it would be a lot of fun I definitely try this coming week. Thanks for posting Oh By the way as you said
monday night in this season is probably a bad spot to test out some mathematical theory --- the over is like 11-1 or something right?
The line will be juiced and even if your play might have hit at say 36, 37, 38 -- you're going with the heavy public and tehrefore you're facing 38.5
now i'm not saying the under is the play or anything, just saying that i could see this game having between 35-38 points -- which wouldn't neccessarily disprove your theory it would simply be affected by external factors of heavy public influence (MNF, over, trends, etc.)
these kinds of 'theories' are better-suited for non-primetime action.
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monday night in this season is probably a bad spot to test out some mathematical theory --- the over is like 11-1 or something right?
The line will be juiced and even if your play might have hit at say 36, 37, 38 -- you're going with the heavy public and tehrefore you're facing 38.5
now i'm not saying the under is the play or anything, just saying that i could see this game having between 35-38 points -- which wouldn't neccessarily disprove your theory it would simply be affected by external factors of heavy public influence (MNF, over, trends, etc.)
these kinds of 'theories' are better-suited for non-primetime action.
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