All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

NFL Wild Card Weekend

...

Participants:

Posts: 60

oldwiseone

Captain

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 7076

Posted: Jan. 6, 2021 - 10:03 PM ET #51

Hey boys good discussion and some good points... Over the years the spread in the playoff games has not come into play in a high percentage of the games.

I'll be curious how that plays out this year. Focus on picking the winner of the game - get that right and you have a high percentage of covering an_light

HockeyNight11

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2017

Posts: 3256

Posted: Jan. 6, 2021 - 10:19 PM ET #52

Quote Originally Posted by Battalion74:

Seattle -4 is my top pick. By a mile too... Firstly, if Wolford does start, he’s in for a treat. Actually, he is the treat that the Wilson/Carroll duo will devour him while. It’s almost not even fair that Wolford’s first playoff game is facing these two and stats note first time playoff QBs on the road as dogs don’t do very well (winning less than 25% of the time). Lets time travel back to week 5... Remember that Seattle team? Wilson was the talk of the town, the team were putting up ridiculous numbers and the ‘Hawks were far and away the best team in the NFC. They didn’t fall to earth, they just started dropping like flies. Well, Wilson’s bodyguards specifically and all of a sudden, Seattle started to slip from the top. Casual bettors see this. They see Seattle’s wins over the past few weeks (NFC east dusters, even losing at home to the Giants!). They see Wilson’s stat line drop, the offence drying up to about 20 pts per game (leaving out the Jets game). Saying all of that, the Rams same stretch of games has yielded equally unassuming numbers; after beating the Bucs a few weeks ago, they aren’t exactly lighting up the lamp either... Here’s the bottom line... Give Wilson time, he’ll eat you for breakfast. And time is what he will have with some returning bodyguards on Saturday. Put up any defence you want, you give a Wilson, a Rodgers time and they will tear you to pieces. Time is the key. Wolford can have all the time he needs, it won’t matter. We will see the week 1 through 5 Seahawks team put up 35+ points on Saturday. And Wolford is going to keep pace with that? The line says this game will be close but it will be anything but that, it will double digits when the clocks strikes zero. 38-24 Seattle, those 24 point coming mostly in the 4th quarter... GL everybody!

This is the type of post where you focus so heavily on one team and convince yourself they are covering easily, and then said team loses the game straight up. Half this post is irrelevant as it looks like Goff was throwing it well today in practice. Kiser and Akers on track as well, both missed that first game. Sounds like Adams isn’t going to be close to 100% for the hawks & that’s a huge concern imo. Seattle OL healthy is a big deal as that group hasn’t lost this year when intact. But unless Aaron Donald quit, or half the team doesn’t show up I think Seattle struggles to score 20+ let alone the 38 this is calling for.

LA Rams with only 41% of bets and line has gone from +5 to +3. Pretty significant move, big $$$ flowing in on LA today. Considering the point made earlier about spreads not really mattering I think LA ML offers the best ‘value’ of the weekend.

docpj72

Captain

Joined: Jul, 2011

Posts: 7531

Posted: Jan. 6, 2021 - 10:23 PM ET #53

Quote Originally Posted by HockeyNight11:

The RAMS + whatever for a large bet and money line for a regular wager. Wolford is no slouch, I think his ability to run adds a little is a major adjustment for opposing defenses. Thought he threw a good ball. Not easy to be thrown into a must win spot. Kupp should be back. Lot of weapons against a D that has struggled most of the season. The reason I really like the Rams is on the defensive side of the ball. Ramsey leads the leagues #1 pass D and he can pretty much neutralize DK Metcalf. 2 games, 87 yards, 0 TDs. I like the Seahawks O, but in the playoffs I will take the better defense almost every time, especially when getting points!!

agree-plus Brockers being back will cause the Seattle offensive line fits...

Vegas5Guys

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2018

Posts: 219

Posted: Jan. 6, 2021 - 10:54 PM ET #54

Sea vs La Rams

Seattle was scoring on average around 32 pts per game first 6 games. But defense was giving almost just as much.

Wk 7th to wk 9 was decreasing on pts scored.

But by wk 10 to 16th, defense stepped up and havent allowed more than 21 pts per game. But offensive have also gone down. Wilson have been average at best. Seattle still managed to win those games.

But this is the playoffs, edge would be qb Wilson over Wolford or Goff.

Seattle defense getting better with Dunlap pass rush. Adams is a plus if he can be 90% by game time.

Rams Donald and Brockton will always be a factor.

Will be a great game.

Taking Seattle-3 -130

24-17

BOL

Onthereal

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 6849

Posted: Jan. 7, 2021 - 9:33 AM ET #55

Under in the Rams-Seahawks game.

Rams defense is legit and McVay is going to run all day long.

20-17 final

DB51daBEARS

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2016

Posts: 4135

Posted: Jan. 9, 2021 - 6:18 PM ET #56

Quote Originally Posted by DB51daBEARS:

Quote Originally Posted by oldwiseone: Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy: Beggin - this is a good point - Sometimes lines are telling you which way Vegas would like you to bet. I do think the public has seen what's Buffalo has done to teams the last few weeks, really domination. Keep in mind Buffalo is young and if Indy puts any pressure on Buffalo or gets an early lead, how do they respond? Remember the playoffs is a different animal and Buffalo is supposed to win. I think the game is much closer than people think with Indy.. @ oldwiseone...Hey, thanks for getting things started lol...and good fortune to all for the playoffs!!! Was looking at vegasinsider.com, and a lot can happen in the next 5 days, but the early %s for spread bets written are 80/20 favoring BUF while the %s for the ML bets written are 71/29 favoring BUF. Right now the Bills are favored -6.5/-7...makes me wonder why somebody thinking about betting the Colts would put their $$$ on a ML bet rather than getting +6.5/+7. Colts have a shot, of course, but a slim one unless what you suggest with a slim chance happens (Bills fall behind two scores). If the average $100-$500 Colts bettor thinks they have a shot, sure as heck they're gonna take the points, yes? So that difference between 20% of bettors taking the Colts + points and 29% of bettors taking the Colts + ML...that 9% could be sharp money. If the ratios for the spread and the ML were both approx. 80/20 for points and 80/20 for ML, then we could think sharp money was on the Bills somewhere in that 80%. As we know, sharp money isn't always a ML bet and not always a dog bet, but no way sharp money's gonna take a ML on a dog if the spread is double digits. It's not a huge difference - 9% - but it seems worth noting. If it was 20% bettors taking the Colts + points, but 40% of bettors taking the Colts + ML, then that would be huge and indicate the ML tilting towards sharp money on the Colts...but 29% is getting up there when the spread is 80/20. And the spread doesn't look to be going higher than that magical -6.5/-7/7.5 where Bills fans can buy the hook (or a pt.) and rest assured of a 14 pt. lead late and not worry about the back door. That's the picture that seems to be coming into focus right now...and it makes all the sense in the world. Philip Rivers in 30 degrees with sun/clouds and 5-10 mph winds isn't ideal for a 39 y/o used to a dome, but he's been around and he's played in cold weather. Life-long NYG fan (still living too close to NYC lol) but I always root for the Bills and the Jets and loved the Jim Kelly Bills! I won't be wagering on this game, but I just want to mention this since you've alluded to the game possibly being closer than some people think. Cheers

DB51daBEARS

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2016

Posts: 4135

Posted: Jan. 9, 2021 - 6:28 PM ET #57

Hey Guys,

I'm apologizing in advance for bumping my post on 1/5 in oldwiseone's thread. The only reason I'm doing so is because of the stuff that gets posted here by guys who pick a winner and crow about it and bump and back slap lol. Good for them, and I'm bumping my post because of the arrogance of a lot of the younger guys who think they have a clue, and who show their arrogance and lack of self-awareness all the time.

How many stud college QBs have come and gone in the last 15 years, and the old man can still ball. More weapons would always be nice, and if the HC could be flawless in his moves, that would be great lol. But I've always been a big Bills fan and I didn't bet the game, but i did see what looked like sharp/smart money on 1/5, and again on 1/6 when the Colts ML went to 39%. And I said so above. If I sound like a d*ck, so be it lol...nah, LMAO. Lotsa guys come in here shrouded in secrecy about what they're gonna play and when we can "see" their picks lol...nah, LMAO.

I'm just glad what I saw and analyzed made sense and was correct, and if i never post again I'm fine (because I don't post much anyway). I'm only here to read what smart guys think and go from there. It's the arrogance of the guys who think they've learned everything there is to know that rankles me. You're never too old to learn new chit...and remembering that would be a good thing for all of us.

BOLTA for tonight, tomorrow, and next weekend !!! Cheers an_cheers