NFL Wild Card Weekend

Assuming New Orleans is healthy and the backs and receivers play - I think they roll Chicago - I have them at 9.5 today 

The Colts the last 2 games did nothing after the half. Buffalo scores a lot, they lay an egg half thr game again they're getting crushed.

Oldwiseone, 

Europa - how you doing?  Haven't seen you around much.  Hope all is well.

Sort of hiatus from the NFL forum, did not play a thing in the regular season. Now I am dipping my feet in the water in this postseason. Best of luck, Oldwiseone! 

Bears don’t have enough to keep up with the Saints. Saints roll... my biggest bet this weekend.

For those of you actually picking an Indy outright win, please continue to do so.  I hate that the Bills are getting this much talk.  I think you may be in for a bit of a surprise with this team.  They are on a different trajectory that can't be quantified or measured by analytics, betting angles, etc.  I know I'm biased, and it's just an opinion, but living in this city and seeing and hearing what's going down here is just different.

GL whatever you decide, 7 is definitely alot of points, but I'm breaking a betting commandment and laying it big.

GL 

That's awesome the city is so excited, it's been awhile Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas days.  BOL with your plays

Wise one, what is your take on the National championship? I don’t know much about college football but I want to tease Bama with the NFL games I like. Thanks.

@ oldwiseone...Hey, thanks for getting things started lol...and good fortune to all for the playoffs!!! 

Was looking at vegasinsider.com, and a lot can happen in the next 5 days, but the early %s for spread bets written are 80/20 favoring BUF while the %s for the ML bets written are 71/29 favoring BUF.  Right now the Bills are favored -6.5/-7...makes me wonder why somebody thinking about betting the Colts would put their $$$ on a ML bet rather than getting +6.5/+7.  Colts have a shot, of course, but a slim one unless what you suggest with a slim chance happens (Bills fall behind two scores).  If the average $100-$500 Colts bettor thinks they have a shot, sure as heck they're gonna take the points, yes?  

So that difference between 20% of bettors taking the Colts + points and 29% of bettors taking the Colts + ML...that 9% could be sharp money.  If the ratios for the spread and the ML were both approx. 80/20 for points and 80/20 for ML, then we could think sharp money was on the Bills somewhere in that 80%.  As we know, sharp money isn't always a ML bet and not always a dog bet, but no way sharp money's gonna take a ML on a dog if the spread is double digits.  It's not a huge difference - 9% - but it seems worth noting.  If it was 20% bettors taking the Colts + points, but 40% of bettors taking the Colts + ML, then that would be huge and indicate the ML tilting towards sharp money on the Colts...but 29% is getting up there when the spread is 80/20. 

And the spread doesn't look to be going higher than that magical -6.5/-7/7.5 where Bills fans can buy the hook (or a pt.) and rest assured of a 14 pt. lead late and not worry about the back door.  That's the picture that seems to be coming into focus right now...and it makes all the sense in the world.  Philip Rivers in 30 degrees with sun/clouds and 5-10 mph winds isn't ideal for a 39 y/o used to a dome, but he's been around and he's played in cold weather.

Life-long NYG fan (still living too close to NYC lol) but I always root for the Bills and the Jets and loved the Jim Kelly Bills!  I won't be wagering on this game, but I just want to mention this since you've alluded to the game possibly being closer than some people think.

Cheers  

Actually, it was a rather balmy 53 degrees, warm sun and little to no winds that day.   I was there.

my plays for the week.  

Rams +4

Rams moneyline 

Saints u48

Colts o51

Bol on your plays OWO

Saints and ravens my favorite plays so far.  Will play rams if Goff is good to go.  Good luck, loving this 6 game wildcard weekend

Before the Clemson game I was leaning Bama whether it was Clemson or Ohio St.  After watching Ohio State move the ball at will against the Clemson defense made me sit back and ponder.  Can Ohio St do that again against Alabama's defense?  Can fields be that good again?  Will the injury reappear or hinder?  If you think he can be that good again, you have to be with Ohio St plus the points as they would have a chance at winning outright.  If you think he plays average or slightly above average I think you have to play Bama.  It's basically one score spread with a team that has been consistent all year long scoring 40+ a game.  

My lean now is Alabama but will wait until I hear further reports and do further research..

Thanks for your input, oldwiseone. My only contribution here is from a psychological perspective: can Ohio State get themselves to perform with the same intensity that they did the other night? That was such a huge game for them emotionally, and Bama cakewalked through their game, not having to use much effort or energy in comparison. 

Rams will be better off starting Wolford,  a QB they have no idea how to defend. Seadorks have already held Goff without a TD in 2 games and they don't fear him at all.

Big fan of your posts owo..Don't know your age, but at 71 myself, I guess I'm "old"; wise?? New Orleans will kill Chicago. Trubisky/Brees? nuff said. No different than last week, Rodgers/Trubisky. I know you liked Carolina this past sunday, but what did we learn that we already did'nt know? Payton is the best damn head coach in the NFL, period. No back field, no Thomas? No problem. Also, Pittsburg will do what they always do to Cleveland.Keep up the good work!

1. Someone tell me how the WFT is going to score on offense? They are the worst offense per dvoa. The worst passing offense per dvoa. And the Bucs rush defense just recorded the 13th best rush defense in dvoa history. 

I'll wait 

2. I literally have not heard one single case for the Bears covering. Not one. Anywhere. We all know what happens when THAT happens.

3. The Browns are the luckiest team to make the playoffs. Not even in the top half of the league in dvoa(#18). Lost Olivier Vernon to injury. Lost their coach and pro bowl guard Joel Bitonio to covid.

Can the books make this # high enough?

4. The game I want no part of: Titans/Ravens. The Titans defense is nearly non existent. Their special teams are awful. Kicking game is a joke vs the best kicker in the league. The Ravens are better than them in every aspect of football except offense, where I can make a case for both sides on who is better. And the books open it low Ravens -3.5? I feel like they should be at least -6 no? I'm not gonna pay to see what happens here.

Under 44.5(took it at 45.5) in DC seems safe..can't see the FT scoring much and yet they can scare TB12 into trouble..

Now I've seen the Browns games all year and they CAN'T STOP ANYONE...but Stefanski did a great job of play calling as the game unfolded so unless he can be on the helmet mike which I doubt, how the hell can that offense decide the best pass plays? And Pittsburgh owns this team and is off a bye basically..

Will they get any of their starters back on D? That would help even more but also Cleveland burned a lot of energy to fi ally make it here..gotta to think they take a breath here at the wrong time..PLEASE Sell me otherwise...

Hoya...like that Under too.....Rams/Hawks under is on my radar....

If the Bears had any QB play whatsoever they'd actually have a chance in this game, their defense matches up well to stop backs and what Brees does.. They went into OT this year with them, the Bears can't win unless the defense does what they've done for years for them and would have to force multiple turnovers.. and if the run game isn't flat out whipping the Saints to create 2nd and 3rd and shorts for Trubisky to hit some throws or play action, they will do absolutely nothing to win if they are reliant on Trubisky arm.. The saints defense is too good to let that offense do anything with the run enough to open those options, I don't know about laying 9 points but there's absolutely no way the Bears win this game SU with the QB they have. 

@jwheels86

 I tend to agree. It's hard seeing the Bears winning this game. I just feel this # is a tad high. If there's any silver lining, the Bears forced 3 fumbles vs the Saints last time but they recovered all of them.

GL

@Getty3

 He played well in game 1....game 2 no....

Seattle -4 is my top pick.   By a mile too...

Firstly, if Wolford does start, he’s in for a treat.  Actually, he is the treat that the Wilson/Carroll duo will devour him while.  It’s almost not even fair that Wolford’s first playoff game is facing these two and stats note first time playoff QBs on the road as dogs don’t do very well (winning less than 25% of the time).

Lets time travel back to week 5...  Remember that Seattle team?  Wilson was the talk of the town, the team were putting up ridiculous numbers and the ‘Hawks were far and away the best team in the NFC.  They didn’t fall to earth, they just started dropping like flies.  Well, Wilson’s bodyguards specifically and all of a sudden, Seattle started to slip from the top.

Casual bettors see this.  They see Seattle’s wins over the past few weeks (NFC east dusters, even losing at home to the Giants!).  They see Wilson’s stat line drop, the offence drying up to about 20 pts per game (leaving out the Jets game).  Saying all of that, the Rams same stretch of games has yielded equally unassuming numbers; after beating the Bucs a few weeks ago, they aren’t exactly lighting up the lamp either...

Here’s the bottom line...

Give Wilson time, he’ll eat you for breakfast.  And time is what he will have with some returning bodyguards on Saturday.  Put up any defence you want, you give a Wilson, a Rodgers time and they will tear you to pieces.  Time is the key.  Wolford can have all the time he needs, it won’t matter.

We will see the week 1 through 5 Seahawks team put up 35+ points on Saturday.  And Wolford is going to keep pace with that?  The line says this game will be close but it will be anything but that, it will double digits when the clocks strikes zero.

38-24 Seattle, those 24 point coming mostly in the 4th quarter...

GL everybody!

@Battalion74

 They just struggled with and failed to cover against cj fn beathard.  No reason to think this kid can’t keep it within the number if Goff can’t go.