NFL Week 5

like your write ups. im opposite on denver. no play for me on jags/ buffalo, on board with the rest.

BOL

Vikings game is a mistake Glyde.  MNF at home versus Farve.  The energy of that place will be like the Superbowl as Jets fans have been looking forward to Farve's return for 2 season now.  Think Rex has them playing with that SuperBowl swagger and a MNF football game against the leader of the previous Jets regime is just the spot Rex wants them in.  No let down on a National televised game like this where even the casual football fan will be tuning in to see Farve/Moss after the trade. 

GB -2.5. 

Think there was bound to be some let down after the emotional win versus the Eagles.  Rogers comes into DC versus a team that has allowed 305 passing yards per game and I can see Clay Matthews furthering his cash for defensive player of the year chasing McNabb from the pocket time and time again. 

Texans -3

Gianst burned me versus the Bears but I still don't think they are that good of a team.  Houston defense should get a boost from the returning of Brian Cushing and their offense should click with Andre back. 

Colts - 7

agree 100% on Colts.

Tell you what, Remy.  If the Vikings pull off this game, you have to walk out of the stadium with my Adrian Peterson jersey starting Viking chants while Jet fans pelt you with half eaten pretzels and beer bottles.  If the Jets win, I'll hunt down Firemen Ed and blow him.  Fair deal? 

Jets have looked really good of late, but a lot of that has to do with the defenses they have played.  NE, Miami, and Buffalo are all varying degrees of dog shit, imo.  The Jets were allowed to set the tempo with their running game, and it allowed Sanchez to make some things happen.  And obviously their stout defense picked up all the pieces. 

I don't think the Jet running game will be able to set that tone though on MNF.  Minnesota is a different animal than they have seen defensively of late, and if that running game isn't fluid and giving Sanchez lots of 3rd and 3s and 3rd and 2s, this is a different offense.  Now I'm not saying that Minny is gonna steamroll them or anything like that, but 4 points is pretty tempting from a hungry 1-2 team with a really good defense coming off a bye.

Can't really argue with GB -2.5.  The only thing I would be worried about is their injuries. 

I was close to pulling the trigger on the Giants all week, but I think I am gonna pass.  I'm always a sucker looking for those teams that move the ball well and dominate things like 1st downs and total yardage in losing efforts.  Giants are the perfect example of that, and a clean game away from a rout, but I can't pull the trigger.  Like you said, Cushing's return is a bit of a wild card, and if he can jump into the action in form, he does help out a shitty Houston defense. 

I agree the Colts look solid. 

Good luck this week, Remy.

Quote Originally Posted by JohnAlz:

No plays for me this week.  Going to watch the games and see if there's any halftime candy.  I like all your picks though.  Don't like any of your leans.  Arizona is stinking it up right now!  They're allowing lots of points to EVERYONE and this no namer, undrafted rookie QB, Max Hall they're starting doesn't have me convinced we're going to see anything out of the ordinary from the Cards.  The NO run game is hurting right now which is putting more pressure on Brees and the receiving crew to produce, but the Saints are due to hand out a blowout and the Cards are perfect potential candidates.  I would just stay away from this one.  Your Buffalo, Indy, and Denver plays have much better value imo.  Not sold on the Giants either.  However, I'm almost sold on Houston at home, and with Cushing coming back.....I wouldn't trust the Giants to give a win.  Everyone was absolutely nuts about the 9 sacks forced by the Giants defense on MNF last week, but do you want to know the stat that amazed me even more.....the fact that the score of that game was 3-0 after that offensive line disaster.  3 points was all NY could put up even with that defensive domination.  That is absolutely PATHETIC and not worth your money.  Raiders game is a toss up to me.  The Bolts have been more than subpar on the road this season, but at the same time they could put lots of points up against the Raiders.  On the other hand, Gradkowski is capable of moving the skin and with SD nursing some injuries on the defensive side (Merriman, Stuckey, English), and still without Steve Gregory, Oakland might contend well.  Too many what ifs this week for me.  I am liking the Jets on Monday, but I'm going to look at it a little more before making a decision.  BOL on all your action Mac

Good stuff, dude.  I agree almost with every word.

I just locked up Buffalo -1.

I've been looking for every excuse possible to avoid this shitfest, but I just can't stay away.  It all seems ready to click, and at the very least it can't hurt to be on the same side of AndyMac who is white hot at the moment.

Dallas -6.5

Minny +4. 

Might be a small three game card for me.  Johnalz said it right.  Too many x factors going on this week.  Bears were looking good as small road chalk, but no Cutler.  Zona looks to be in a great spot, but starting a dogshit rookie.  GB is loaded with injuries.  Giants game has enough x factors to keep me away.  SF game is loaded with them x factors especially Kolb at the helm.  Atlanta and Cleveland are two teams that I am the puzzle is slowly coming together for them and this week might define it.

So probably just three plays for me.  If anyrhing I will add Detroit, but that will be a gametime decision.

Good luck to all who contributed.  This thread is how evolved into a really good thing.  Good job, Andy.

I've been eyeballing this one also, but I still can't decide whether I want to play it.  I think this is a really good spot for a Lions win.  I like where your head's at.  Good points on all your "x factors."  My only play right now is Houston -3.  I still think the Giants are bogus and Houston has some steam.  GL to everyone and thanks for the hard work Mac and Glyde.  I enjoy the reading in this thread

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

I'm heading out of town for the weekend tomorrow and won't be back til next week. Don't plan on taking the laptop so I'm gonna punch this in soon. Final card:


Buffalo +1

Denver +7 & ML +278

Indianapolis -7

Arizona +7

Cincinnati -6.5


I'm not gonna mess around with the Cards ML. Might throw a few pennies on it but not a regular ML play.

Don't think I mentioned anything about Cincy but I see this as a nice spot for them to get it together before their bye week next week. They'd much rather be going into the bye 3-2 than 2-3 (duh!). I think they bring a very good effort off that stinker in Cleveland last week and that effort will allow them to cover. Let's not forget they still have one of the better defenses in the league. Last year at home they gave up just 13.3 PPG and in their lone home game thus far they rattled Baltimore and gave up just 10 points. Tough task IMO for a young Bucs offense to go in there and put up points especially when I think the Bengals show up. The Bengals have a brutal schedule after their bye week playing the Falcons, Dolphins, Steelers, Colts, Jets, Saints, and Steelers in an 8 game stretch with Buffalo thrown in the middle. When facing a tough sched like that this game against Tampa suddenly looks pretty important.

GL this week gents.

I'm with you on Buffalo and Denver.  Please check out my thread for Bills pick logic.  My biggest play so far this year. 

KC post-bye OTR are 0-3 SU but 3-0 ATS.  Small sample, but they've kept big spreads close. 

Another post-bye trend is TB 6-2 ATS, 2-1 post-bye OTR losing @ SF 15-10 in '05.  I was at that game.  Chris Simms....'nuff said.   

just cant get on the bills anytime against anyone

but good luck

Great card,,I'm on the same games + the Lions....

BOL