Posted:
#1
YTD: 15-7 ATS..............ML Dogs: 8-4 (+8.43)
Buffalo +1
This is a horrible spot for Jacksonville. We all saw the Jags beat their division rivals last week on a GW 59 yard field goal, we all saw Scobee and his teammates running around the field like they won the Superbowl, and we all saw Jack Del Rio after the game on the verge of tears talking about how proud he was to be the coach of this team. Hey, it was an emotional win. But how do they even get close to mustering up that kind of emotion, off a game like, that flying all the way up to play the doormat Bills? I don't think they will be able to especially when you know they will be peeking ahead to next week when they host another division rival on MNF no less.
And let's take a step back and acknowledge that the Jags were brutal the two games prior to last week and they only beat Denver because of the Broncos' mistakes, this is still a terrible defense and I wouldn't trust them on the road to stop a Peewee squad. Jacksonville won 2 road games last year and 3 the year before, Whoopy. Bills have a bye next week so you know they will be leaving it all on the field this week looking to give their fans something to cheer about after getting spanked on their own field last week.
Denver + whatever & ML (do I dare hope for 7.5?)
Here's what I wrote about Denver last week:
On the other side I think this is a sneaky, sneaky under the radar Broncos team right now. I think glyde said it last week but Kyle Orton looks like a different guy this year. He is playing with tremendous confidence and behind an o-line that is blocking well he is throwing darts all over the field to a suddenly mouth watering plethora of pass catchers. Thomas, Royal, a rejuvenated Brandon Lloyd and a nice 4 in Gaffney can spread the field and really open things up for this offense. They have struggled to run it but may get Moreno back this week, plus sooner or later things will open up on the ground when teams realize how dynamic this pass offense can be. A confident quarterback who is in a zone right now making good throws leads to a confident team as a whole. If these guys hadn't shot themselves in the foot so many times in 2 games they could be 3-0. They've out gained their opponents by over 50 yards in every game.
I still feel the exact same way about Denver. They are a really under the radar squad right now. And this is a great spot to bet them again. Sure, they've struggled to run the ball but they still attempted it 20 times last week which is key because it keeps the heat off the passing game a bit, plus maybe Moreno plays this week which would be a nice boost. I've already heard that winning twice in a row on the road is hard, but it actually isn't when your a dog both times. Think about it, you are a big dog on the road one week and have to up your game and bet at your best against a superior opponent, if you win how big of a momentum boost is that? Huge IMO. Now you feel good and can carry that exact same energy and mentality out there again the next week against another superior team. There is no letdown because you are a big dog again. The proof is in the numbers, over the last 5 years dogs on the road for the second week in a row after winning the previous game as a dog have covered 19 out of 26 times and are a very impressive 12-14. Can you say ML +275 or more?
You know when you do have letdowns? When you are off a very tough, physical, emotional game against your arch rival and are now a big fav, hello Baltimore! That was a very tough game last week and coming from behind winning in the final minute against their rivals will do them no favors this week. Over the last 5 years Baltimore has covered 2 of 9 games after those slugfests with Pittsburgh. Oh and did I mention Baltimore goes to New England next week who we just saw romp to a 41-14 win. This is a big sandwich game. Give me some Kyle Orton baby!
Indianapolis - whatever
I expect Indy to get back to their winning ways this week. Their defense has been garbage so far true, but let's remember they've played 3 road games on grass. This is a speed defense built to play in the dome on the turf where they can fly around. Their DE usually feed off the energy in that place too and harrass opposing QB's. The Colts DE's are going to give a real test to the Kansas City offensive line as well that IMO is unproven. They were real bad last year and so far this year have faced soft rushes, this will be a major test in the dome against these guys. I'm not sure I need to talk about Peyton Manning and the offense, they put it up every week.
What really seals the deal here is the fact that KC is coming off a bye. Strange, huh? There is absolutely no bigger momentum killer in sports than having a layoff after playing a great stretch. And that is exactly what happened to the Chiefs. These guys were playing great ball before the break and I guarantee if you asked every single player in that locker room they would have said that they would have rather kept playing and not had a bye last week. Now they have to try to find a way to recapture the magic and momentum all over again and doing it in a stadium like this against a speedy, aggressive defense and a QB like this off a loss is a very tall task IMO.
Haven't really gone over the entire card thoroughly yet but others that stick out are the Cardinals, Raiders, and Giants.
GL this week.
Buffalo +1
This is a horrible spot for Jacksonville. We all saw the Jags beat their division rivals last week on a GW 59 yard field goal, we all saw Scobee and his teammates running around the field like they won the Superbowl, and we all saw Jack Del Rio after the game on the verge of tears talking about how proud he was to be the coach of this team. Hey, it was an emotional win. But how do they even get close to mustering up that kind of emotion, off a game like, that flying all the way up to play the doormat Bills? I don't think they will be able to especially when you know they will be peeking ahead to next week when they host another division rival on MNF no less.
And let's take a step back and acknowledge that the Jags were brutal the two games prior to last week and they only beat Denver because of the Broncos' mistakes, this is still a terrible defense and I wouldn't trust them on the road to stop a Peewee squad. Jacksonville won 2 road games last year and 3 the year before, Whoopy. Bills have a bye next week so you know they will be leaving it all on the field this week looking to give their fans something to cheer about after getting spanked on their own field last week.
Denver + whatever & ML (do I dare hope for 7.5?)
Here's what I wrote about Denver last week:
On the other side I think this is a sneaky, sneaky under the radar Broncos team right now. I think glyde said it last week but Kyle Orton looks like a different guy this year. He is playing with tremendous confidence and behind an o-line that is blocking well he is throwing darts all over the field to a suddenly mouth watering plethora of pass catchers. Thomas, Royal, a rejuvenated Brandon Lloyd and a nice 4 in Gaffney can spread the field and really open things up for this offense. They have struggled to run it but may get Moreno back this week, plus sooner or later things will open up on the ground when teams realize how dynamic this pass offense can be. A confident quarterback who is in a zone right now making good throws leads to a confident team as a whole. If these guys hadn't shot themselves in the foot so many times in 2 games they could be 3-0. They've out gained their opponents by over 50 yards in every game.
I still feel the exact same way about Denver. They are a really under the radar squad right now. And this is a great spot to bet them again. Sure, they've struggled to run the ball but they still attempted it 20 times last week which is key because it keeps the heat off the passing game a bit, plus maybe Moreno plays this week which would be a nice boost. I've already heard that winning twice in a row on the road is hard, but it actually isn't when your a dog both times. Think about it, you are a big dog on the road one week and have to up your game and bet at your best against a superior opponent, if you win how big of a momentum boost is that? Huge IMO. Now you feel good and can carry that exact same energy and mentality out there again the next week against another superior team. There is no letdown because you are a big dog again. The proof is in the numbers, over the last 5 years dogs on the road for the second week in a row after winning the previous game as a dog have covered 19 out of 26 times and are a very impressive 12-14. Can you say ML +275 or more?
You know when you do have letdowns? When you are off a very tough, physical, emotional game against your arch rival and are now a big fav, hello Baltimore! That was a very tough game last week and coming from behind winning in the final minute against their rivals will do them no favors this week. Over the last 5 years Baltimore has covered 2 of 9 games after those slugfests with Pittsburgh. Oh and did I mention Baltimore goes to New England next week who we just saw romp to a 41-14 win. This is a big sandwich game. Give me some Kyle Orton baby!
Indianapolis - whatever
I expect Indy to get back to their winning ways this week. Their defense has been garbage so far true, but let's remember they've played 3 road games on grass. This is a speed defense built to play in the dome on the turf where they can fly around. Their DE usually feed off the energy in that place too and harrass opposing QB's. The Colts DE's are going to give a real test to the Kansas City offensive line as well that IMO is unproven. They were real bad last year and so far this year have faced soft rushes, this will be a major test in the dome against these guys. I'm not sure I need to talk about Peyton Manning and the offense, they put it up every week.
What really seals the deal here is the fact that KC is coming off a bye. Strange, huh? There is absolutely no bigger momentum killer in sports than having a layoff after playing a great stretch. And that is exactly what happened to the Chiefs. These guys were playing great ball before the break and I guarantee if you asked every single player in that locker room they would have said that they would have rather kept playing and not had a bye last week. Now they have to try to find a way to recapture the magic and momentum all over again and doing it in a stadium like this against a speedy, aggressive defense and a QB like this off a loss is a very tall task IMO.
Haven't really gone over the entire card thoroughly yet but others that stick out are the Cardinals, Raiders, and Giants.
GL this week.
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The great Dos Equis guy
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