dude, the charges are absolutely terrible lol, why are people still riding them? they lost their O-Line the bears are going to destroy them.
i agree ..they looked lost the other night ..rivers was sweating like a goat and they didnt act like they knew where they were supposed to be ...and Chicago is tough at home ..Forte's a beast ...good luck though ..
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Quote Originally Posted by jck524:
dude, the charges are absolutely terrible lol, why are people still riding them? they lost their O-Line the bears are going to destroy them.
i agree ..they looked lost the other night ..rivers was sweating like a goat and they didnt act like they knew where they were supposed to be ...and Chicago is tough at home ..Forte's a beast ...good luck though ..
I was going to throw in the towel after another total disaster last week but reminded myself that at the start of every season I bring in a predetermined bankroll in every sport for the pre/regular seasons which I am perfectly comfortable with losing. I don't bet over my head or with money I can't afford to lose. I have an aggressive style and if I lose my predetermined bankroll for a particular sport in a season then so be it. I have never gotten near to this point in the NFL and if not for a 10-4 preseason I would already have been done. I have learned a hell of a lot so it hasn't been a near death experience.Have enough left for 3 plays at a bit less than my standard % so hopefully I'll go 0-3 this week to finish the job. I will not be reloading and if I do lose the rest I will only bet the playoffs if I come out ahead on the Win totals I put in before the season.
Hopefully everyone faded last week and went 5-0. I'd encourage the same thing this week and hopefully you'll go 3-0 again.
San Diego +3.5
Minnesota +1
I have a similar read on the SD game, but 3 o-linemen is a son of a bitch. This seems like a game where Rivers comes out and lights it up. The whole world is thinking he sucks. 0-4 ats. IMO you still have to consider him an elite qb and we're getting pts. However, SD is 0-2 ats as a dog this season. I can't get the trenches out of my head to make this a play. Everyone is asking what is wrong with Rivers. I don't know, but one thing I have noticed is he looks different dropping back and with poor protection I'm not confident back them.
Haven't even looked the Vikings game. I'll be doing that next.
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Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
YTD: 15-32
I was going to throw in the towel after another total disaster last week but reminded myself that at the start of every season I bring in a predetermined bankroll in every sport for the pre/regular seasons which I am perfectly comfortable with losing. I don't bet over my head or with money I can't afford to lose. I have an aggressive style and if I lose my predetermined bankroll for a particular sport in a season then so be it. I have never gotten near to this point in the NFL and if not for a 10-4 preseason I would already have been done. I have learned a hell of a lot so it hasn't been a near death experience.Have enough left for 3 plays at a bit less than my standard % so hopefully I'll go 0-3 this week to finish the job. I will not be reloading and if I do lose the rest I will only bet the playoffs if I come out ahead on the Win totals I put in before the season.
Hopefully everyone faded last week and went 5-0. I'd encourage the same thing this week and hopefully you'll go 3-0 again.
San Diego +3.5
Minnesota +1
I have a similar read on the SD game, but 3 o-linemen is a son of a bitch. This seems like a game where Rivers comes out and lights it up. The whole world is thinking he sucks. 0-4 ats. IMO you still have to consider him an elite qb and we're getting pts. However, SD is 0-2 ats as a dog this season. I can't get the trenches out of my head to make this a play. Everyone is asking what is wrong with Rivers. I don't know, but one thing I have noticed is he looks different dropping back and with poor protection I'm not confident back them.
Haven't even looked the Vikings game. I'll be doing that next.
Gabbert getting points on the rd? I know everyone thought that last week but this isnt the Colts. Browns have a legit secondary, so I don't expect Blaine to break 150 The Colts may be the worst team in the history of the league, but there is no way that was just another game. I know the Jags had a bye recently, but still this is there 4th away game in 5 weeks.
Jags secondary sucks, but its not like Colt Mccoy can take advantage of it with his girly arm and lack of talented receivers. Jax front 7 is very good. Im waiting to see if Hardesty is playing.
Thoughts?
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Jags @ Browns
Gabbert getting points on the rd? I know everyone thought that last week but this isnt the Colts. Browns have a legit secondary, so I don't expect Blaine to break 150 The Colts may be the worst team in the history of the league, but there is no way that was just another game. I know the Jags had a bye recently, but still this is there 4th away game in 5 weeks.
Jags secondary sucks, but its not like Colt Mccoy can take advantage of it with his girly arm and lack of talented receivers. Jax front 7 is very good. Im waiting to see if Hardesty is playing.
Gabbert getting points on the rd? I know everyone thought that last week but this isnt the Colts. Browns have a legit secondary, so I don't expect Blaine to break 150 The Colts may be the worst team in the history of the league, but there is no way that was just another game. I know the Jags had a bye recently, but still this is there 4th away game in 5 weeks.
Jags secondary sucks, but its not like Colt Mccoy can take advantage of it with his girly arm and lack of talented receivers. Jax front 7 is very good. Im waiting to see if Hardesty is playing.
Thoughts?
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Quote Originally Posted by JerryWrasse:
Jags @ Browns
Gabbert getting points on the rd? I know everyone thought that last week but this isnt the Colts. Browns have a legit secondary, so I don't expect Blaine to break 150 The Colts may be the worst team in the history of the league, but there is no way that was just another game. I know the Jags had a bye recently, but still this is there 4th away game in 5 weeks.
Jags secondary sucks, but its not like Colt Mccoy can take advantage of it with his girly arm and lack of talented receivers. Jax front 7 is very good. Im waiting to see if Hardesty is playing.
Hang in there, Andy! It's easy to get frustrated, but keep plugging. There's a good 10 weeks of football left and as long as the bankroll is still somewhat intact, keep going at it! I started the season hot, but the last couple weeks have been so-so, and I'm aggravated as shit
0
Hang in there, Andy! It's easy to get frustrated, but keep plugging. There's a good 10 weeks of football left and as long as the bankroll is still somewhat intact, keep going at it! I started the season hot, but the last couple weeks have been so-so, and I'm aggravated as shit
Unreal. Fucking mobile sight....lost a decent post.....short version.....
-Started with a rant how my last post prematurely submitted. Hang in there. Easy to get aggravated as I started the season great, but subpar last couple weeks got me annoyed, BUT they were bad wagers and not bad breaks and how I learned from each bad loss the last couple weeks(buffalo as an example).
Minny+1 and -1 for my first 2 unit play of the season. Oakland does not deserve to be small favs on road and Minny d-line should give Palmer fits.
- Carolina +7. While dogshit as favs or small puppies because of youthful game changing mistakes, they have too efficient of an offense to be catching a TD from an overrated squad that shields their 3 yard pass offense through great skill players and a good pass rush.
- Washington +7.5. Home dog division game. Wounded, dangerous. I think they take this one.
- Cincy +7. Young scrappy squad catching too many points against an overrated and GASSED Baltimore squad.
- Buffalo ML 115. Last couple years I find myself victim of being too smart for my own good. I'm not overthinking or overanalyzing this game. I like the better team to rebound off of two stinkers and beat the team with ZERO home field advantage. There's value to be found in Miami, just not at home laying points to a wounded and dangerous divisional foe.
GL bud, I like your card and I'm glad I don't see Indy on it! LOL.
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Unreal. Fucking mobile sight....lost a decent post.....short version.....
-Started with a rant how my last post prematurely submitted. Hang in there. Easy to get aggravated as I started the season great, but subpar last couple weeks got me annoyed, BUT they were bad wagers and not bad breaks and how I learned from each bad loss the last couple weeks(buffalo as an example).
Minny+1 and -1 for my first 2 unit play of the season. Oakland does not deserve to be small favs on road and Minny d-line should give Palmer fits.
- Carolina +7. While dogshit as favs or small puppies because of youthful game changing mistakes, they have too efficient of an offense to be catching a TD from an overrated squad that shields their 3 yard pass offense through great skill players and a good pass rush.
- Washington +7.5. Home dog division game. Wounded, dangerous. I think they take this one.
- Cincy +7. Young scrappy squad catching too many points against an overrated and GASSED Baltimore squad.
- Buffalo ML 115. Last couple years I find myself victim of being too smart for my own good. I'm not overthinking or overanalyzing this game. I like the better team to rebound off of two stinkers and beat the team with ZERO home field advantage. There's value to be found in Miami, just not at home laying points to a wounded and dangerous divisional foe.
GL bud, I like your card and I'm glad I don't see Indy on it! LOL.
Well last week was a big disappointment. Not in the sense I went 1-2 but that it wasn't 0-3 and I have to drag this out a week longer. Strangely felt good about last week. Minny had control of that game until Peterson got hurt then they had to air it out with Ponder throwing picks and that was that. Really liked Philly on SNF so maybe it's something to build on.
Anyway maybe this is the week I finally finish the job. Have enough for two plays, will fire one Thursday to end up with either 1 or 3 on Sunday. I've accepted the fact that I will most likely finish the job. Toughest part will not be reloading before the playoffs.
Baltimore -3
This is a spot where the magic carpet ride for the Niners ends IMO. Spots don't get tougher than this playing a division game on Sunday afternoon then flying way out east for a Thursday game. They will basically lose an entire day of travel and may have one and a half practices. There is no time to install a game-plan that will be good enough to put points up against Baltimore. They review film Monday, install the quick game-plan Tuesday then take off Wednesday without any real time to practice it. Harbaugh is already playing the "us against the world" card as far as the schedule goes but I don't think it works this time. Baltimore also on short rest but they were at home last week and don't lose the day of travel. The Cards team that went to the Super Bowl was in this spot a few years ago and as a 3 point dog they were spanked 48-20.
San Fran's offense is based off the run and Lewis or no Lewis I don't think they will have success running the ball on this defense. That puts the ball in Alex Smith's hands trying to make plays on the road with a limited gameplan against a ballhawking secondary. I just don't like that idea at all regardless of how well he's taken care of the ball. Smith is a nice game manager that can convert 3rd ans short off the run but when the run isn't there and he's in 3rd and long he's not good, only completing 51.9% on 3rd and 6 or more this season for 6.7 YPA with a 63.6 RAT. Flacco is better in this spot and a better play maker under pressure at 50% but with 7.3 YPA and a 77.6 RAT. The Niners don't throw deep either which will further shorten the field. San Fran is also a debacle in the red zone. When you add all these things up I think they really struggle to score points.
San Fran also has a great defense but the Ravens have done a great job at home against top level defenses. So far they have played 4 defenses in the Top 7 in the NFL at home and have scored 35, 34, 29, and 31 points while putting up 385, 267, 402, and 373 yards all of which are highly impressive numbers and puts further emphasis on the fact that the Ravens play up to their competition. I'm not saying they light it up but they have had good success against these defenses before and perhaps most importantly they have weapons to stretch the field and open it up whereas the Niners do not. The Ravens are also great at forcing turnovers on this field and with Alex Smith chucking it I can see that trend continuing.
Long story short: Very tough spot for San Fran, Baltimore takes away what they do best and they probably struggle to score. This is also San Fran's first real game in the spotlight against a good team on the road. Young teams in this spot have been known to wilt.
As always I encourage fading.
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Well last week was a big disappointment. Not in the sense I went 1-2 but that it wasn't 0-3 and I have to drag this out a week longer. Strangely felt good about last week. Minny had control of that game until Peterson got hurt then they had to air it out with Ponder throwing picks and that was that. Really liked Philly on SNF so maybe it's something to build on.
Anyway maybe this is the week I finally finish the job. Have enough for two plays, will fire one Thursday to end up with either 1 or 3 on Sunday. I've accepted the fact that I will most likely finish the job. Toughest part will not be reloading before the playoffs.
Baltimore -3
This is a spot where the magic carpet ride for the Niners ends IMO. Spots don't get tougher than this playing a division game on Sunday afternoon then flying way out east for a Thursday game. They will basically lose an entire day of travel and may have one and a half practices. There is no time to install a game-plan that will be good enough to put points up against Baltimore. They review film Monday, install the quick game-plan Tuesday then take off Wednesday without any real time to practice it. Harbaugh is already playing the "us against the world" card as far as the schedule goes but I don't think it works this time. Baltimore also on short rest but they were at home last week and don't lose the day of travel. The Cards team that went to the Super Bowl was in this spot a few years ago and as a 3 point dog they were spanked 48-20.
San Fran's offense is based off the run and Lewis or no Lewis I don't think they will have success running the ball on this defense. That puts the ball in Alex Smith's hands trying to make plays on the road with a limited gameplan against a ballhawking secondary. I just don't like that idea at all regardless of how well he's taken care of the ball. Smith is a nice game manager that can convert 3rd ans short off the run but when the run isn't there and he's in 3rd and long he's not good, only completing 51.9% on 3rd and 6 or more this season for 6.7 YPA with a 63.6 RAT. Flacco is better in this spot and a better play maker under pressure at 50% but with 7.3 YPA and a 77.6 RAT. The Niners don't throw deep either which will further shorten the field. San Fran is also a debacle in the red zone. When you add all these things up I think they really struggle to score points.
San Fran also has a great defense but the Ravens have done a great job at home against top level defenses. So far they have played 4 defenses in the Top 7 in the NFL at home and have scored 35, 34, 29, and 31 points while putting up 385, 267, 402, and 373 yards all of which are highly impressive numbers and puts further emphasis on the fact that the Ravens play up to their competition. I'm not saying they light it up but they have had good success against these defenses before and perhaps most importantly they have weapons to stretch the field and open it up whereas the Niners do not. The Ravens are also great at forcing turnovers on this field and with Alex Smith chucking it I can see that trend continuing.
Long story short: Very tough spot for San Fran, Baltimore takes away what they do best and they probably struggle to score. This is also San Fran's first real game in the spotlight against a good team on the road. Young teams in this spot have been known to wilt.
Great writeup on the Ravens buddy. I completely agree with what you wrote. Ravens will be one of my bigger plays of the year. I hope we get this one. Even though you've been hitting a rough patch, I think your on the right track and it's always great reading your thoughts on the games. This year has defs been tough with the number of "public" plays hitting at an unreal rate compared to past years.
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Great writeup on the Ravens buddy. I completely agree with what you wrote. Ravens will be one of my bigger plays of the year. I hope we get this one. Even though you've been hitting a rough patch, I think your on the right track and it's always great reading your thoughts on the games. This year has defs been tough with the number of "public" plays hitting at an unreal rate compared to past years.
Hey my man, I haven't always agreed with your picks or logic for them, but with that being said this has been an incredibly hard year to get a read on them. It only takes two good weeks in a row to start building your confidence again and stop second guessing things. You'll be alright just hang in there and I have a feeling the next two weeks will start to turn it around for you.
0
Hey my man, I haven't always agreed with your picks or logic for them, but with that being said this has been an incredibly hard year to get a read on them. It only takes two good weeks in a row to start building your confidence again and stop second guessing things. You'll be alright just hang in there and I have a feeling the next two weeks will start to turn it around for you.
Well last week was a big disappointment. Not in the sense I went 1-2 but that it wasn't 0-3 and I have to drag this out a week longer. Strangely felt good about last week. Minny had control of that game until Peterson got hurt then they had to air it out with Ponder throwing picks and that was that. Really liked Philly on SNF so maybe it's something to build on.
Anyway maybe this is the week I finally finish the job. Have enough for two plays, will fire one Thursday to end up with either 1 or 3 on Sunday. I've accepted the fact that I will most likely finish the job. Toughest part will not be reloading before the playoffs.
Baltimore -3
Oh andarmac99 what the hell have you done? You will now have to waste your valuable time coming up with 3 Sunday picks in addition to big write-ups after Thursday- why oh why did you take the Ravens.
Best play on the card Thursday!
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Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
Well last week was a big disappointment. Not in the sense I went 1-2 but that it wasn't 0-3 and I have to drag this out a week longer. Strangely felt good about last week. Minny had control of that game until Peterson got hurt then they had to air it out with Ponder throwing picks and that was that. Really liked Philly on SNF so maybe it's something to build on.
Anyway maybe this is the week I finally finish the job. Have enough for two plays, will fire one Thursday to end up with either 1 or 3 on Sunday. I've accepted the fact that I will most likely finish the job. Toughest part will not be reloading before the playoffs.
Baltimore -3
Oh andarmac99 what the hell have you done? You will now have to waste your valuable time coming up with 3 Sunday picks in addition to big write-ups after Thursday- why oh why did you take the Ravens.
Oh andarmac99 what the hell have you done? You will now have to waste your valuable time coming up with 3 Sunday picks in addition to big write-ups after Thursday- why oh why did you take the Ravens.
Best play on the card Thursday!
I already have the 3 ready to go. Let's hope I have the opportunity to fire, if not then I will have to wittle it down to one which will be tough because I love 3 plays on Sunday.
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Quote Originally Posted by mtbaker:
Oh andarmac99 what the hell have you done? You will now have to waste your valuable time coming up with 3 Sunday picks in addition to big write-ups after Thursday- why oh why did you take the Ravens.
Best play on the card Thursday!
I already have the 3 ready to go. Let's hope I have the opportunity to fire, if not then I will have to wittle it down to one which will be tough because I love 3 plays on Sunday.
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