Mac, don't think I can back Dallas as those rivalry games are unpredictable, and Jax are just an injured piece of dogshit with internal problems at the moment, but you make some good points with the Eagles. Reality has finally caught up with the perception that they are a good football team, and finally getting them at a line they deserve to be might be a good play. Miami has been playing lights out lately, but I think they are gonna have a lot of trouble defending that spread offense with all their weapons. Vick is back and looks to be ready to roll and with the way this season shook out, I think he thinks he has a lot to prove in finishing the season strong. As for team motivation, I think those overpaid bums are over the fact that the season is dead and will play out the remainder to save Reid's job if anything. Throw in the extra rest and I think they can win this one. I usually hate to go against a team that is playing so damn good, but let's be real.....miami isn't exactly the most talented team and are playing way over their heads.
I doubt this line moves, but gonna keep an eye and jump if it clicks to 3.5.
I'm not sure I can back Dallas either with the line move. Most people don't realize it but 4 is actually a key number. It comes in about the same % of the time as 6 and 10 which is about 3rd behind the 3 and 7. I do think they come out strong, may hit them 1st half we'll see. G
L on the Eagles bro lean your way there. It will be interesting to see if these guys show some heart. They play the Jets and Cowboys the next two weeks and could be one of those teams out of it that no one wants to play down the stretch.
GL this week buddy keep up the great run.
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Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:
Mac, don't think I can back Dallas as those rivalry games are unpredictable, and Jax are just an injured piece of dogshit with internal problems at the moment, but you make some good points with the Eagles. Reality has finally caught up with the perception that they are a good football team, and finally getting them at a line they deserve to be might be a good play. Miami has been playing lights out lately, but I think they are gonna have a lot of trouble defending that spread offense with all their weapons. Vick is back and looks to be ready to roll and with the way this season shook out, I think he thinks he has a lot to prove in finishing the season strong. As for team motivation, I think those overpaid bums are over the fact that the season is dead and will play out the remainder to save Reid's job if anything. Throw in the extra rest and I think they can win this one. I usually hate to go against a team that is playing so damn good, but let's be real.....miami isn't exactly the most talented team and are playing way over their heads.
I doubt this line moves, but gonna keep an eye and jump if it clicks to 3.5.
I'm not sure I can back Dallas either with the line move. Most people don't realize it but 4 is actually a key number. It comes in about the same % of the time as 6 and 10 which is about 3rd behind the 3 and 7. I do think they come out strong, may hit them 1st half we'll see. G
L on the Eagles bro lean your way there. It will be interesting to see if these guys show some heart. They play the Jets and Cowboys the next two weeks and could be one of those teams out of it that no one wants to play down the stretch.
Yeah I've been beaten up and am just worn down at this point. I looked at these totals and saw some great trends so I hit them instead of a couple of sides. Need to switch it up and try to get a win. I know these totals are public plays but I have some solid reasons for making the plays.
Even though there isn't much room for error I think at least one team in each game gets to 31, that means the other will have to score less than 17. I just don't see any of these guys getting less than 17. The Falcons are in a spot they historically score in bunches against a completely decimated defense, hard to see them not hitting 30. The Panthers have an explosive offense and have scored less than 17 points just twice all year. They could even drop 30 in this game I'm not sold on the Falcons D. The Saints defense is a sieve against the run and the Titans should be able to score. Saints offense on grass could be a worry but there is an interesting dynamic with this game: Everyone loves the Titans. I've read this forum all week and more people are on Tennessee than New Orleans. The thinking has hit mainstream as well as every article, publication, and pundit has talked about how the Saints stink on the road and/or grass. This is a sexy upset pick. I have a sneaky feeling the Saints may be motivated this week even though there are COUNTLESS trends that say this is a bad spot for them. If they are motivated they will score at will on a Titans defense that I think is grossly overrated. Once a trend has hit the mainstream it is usually time to go the other way, and the fact the Saints have been poor on the road really since their loss @ Seattle in the playoffs has definitely hit the mainstream.
Hope for a 2-0 (6-0) as well Disco.
Yea those totals are solid no doubt
I like the Titans ML myself...
but I'm having a tough time figuring out if CAR can actually upset ATL, I'm actually thinking ATL wins on the road
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Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
Yeah I've been beaten up and am just worn down at this point. I looked at these totals and saw some great trends so I hit them instead of a couple of sides. Need to switch it up and try to get a win. I know these totals are public plays but I have some solid reasons for making the plays.
Even though there isn't much room for error I think at least one team in each game gets to 31, that means the other will have to score less than 17. I just don't see any of these guys getting less than 17. The Falcons are in a spot they historically score in bunches against a completely decimated defense, hard to see them not hitting 30. The Panthers have an explosive offense and have scored less than 17 points just twice all year. They could even drop 30 in this game I'm not sold on the Falcons D. The Saints defense is a sieve against the run and the Titans should be able to score. Saints offense on grass could be a worry but there is an interesting dynamic with this game: Everyone loves the Titans. I've read this forum all week and more people are on Tennessee than New Orleans. The thinking has hit mainstream as well as every article, publication, and pundit has talked about how the Saints stink on the road and/or grass. This is a sexy upset pick. I have a sneaky feeling the Saints may be motivated this week even though there are COUNTLESS trends that say this is a bad spot for them. If they are motivated they will score at will on a Titans defense that I think is grossly overrated. Once a trend has hit the mainstream it is usually time to go the other way, and the fact the Saints have been poor on the road really since their loss @ Seattle in the playoffs has definitely hit the mainstream.
Hope for a 2-0 (6-0) as well Disco.
Yea those totals are solid no doubt
I like the Titans ML myself...
but I'm having a tough time figuring out if CAR can actually upset ATL, I'm actually thinking ATL wins on the road
Fuck man. Gotta give Yates credit as he did the exact thing I didn't think he could do which is put the team on his shoulders and win it himself, but what a tough way to lose as I was covering pretty much every minute of the game. Props to Houston for clawing back.
Sucks because I wound up going with the Vikes who hit, hit with the Eagles(knock on wood still a little time left), and hit with the Jets on a 1:01pm last second hunch play. Got VICIOUSLY backdoored with Baltimore(another last minute hunch play) and then lost with Cincy on last play of the game.
Could have been a big fucking day........
Lol Andy, splitsville got you hanging on for another week!
Baker, tough beat for us with Cincy. Shitty way to lose. Houston was worthy and all, but the Bungles had many chances to bury them.
Bills and over my only remaining plays today. Hopefully 5-2 on day and not 3-4.
GL on rest of the day, gents.
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Fuck man. Gotta give Yates credit as he did the exact thing I didn't think he could do which is put the team on his shoulders and win it himself, but what a tough way to lose as I was covering pretty much every minute of the game. Props to Houston for clawing back.
Sucks because I wound up going with the Vikes who hit, hit with the Eagles(knock on wood still a little time left), and hit with the Jets on a 1:01pm last second hunch play. Got VICIOUSLY backdoored with Baltimore(another last minute hunch play) and then lost with Cincy on last play of the game.
Could have been a big fucking day........
Lol Andy, splitsville got you hanging on for another week!
Baker, tough beat for us with Cincy. Shitty way to lose. Houston was worthy and all, but the Bungles had many chances to bury them.
Bills and over my only remaining plays today. Hopefully 5-2 on day and not 3-4.
3-1 on leans I had on the sides so far with the Jags, Eagles, and Saints coming in. Almost knew that would happen. Taking Dallas tonight. I'd much rather a losing day than another split at this point.
Dallas -3 (1st half)
Couple real tough losses there glyde. Looks like you have a nice feel for the games right now though. Really surprised about Yates as well. He was huge today. The Bengals really killed themselves settling for so many FG's, they kept that door open all afternoon.
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1-1 day.
3-1 on leans I had on the sides so far with the Jags, Eagles, and Saints coming in. Almost knew that would happen. Taking Dallas tonight. I'd much rather a losing day than another split at this point.
Dallas -3 (1st half)
Couple real tough losses there glyde. Looks like you have a nice feel for the games right now though. Really surprised about Yates as well. He was huge today. The Bengals really killed themselves settling for so many FG's, they kept that door open all afternoon.
Lol, lost the Bills over because of a missed XP. And here I thought Saturday was for amateur college ball.
GL with Dallas, Andy. I'm watching the game with my family who are Giant fans, so will be rooting the Giants, but a 17-10 Dallas lead at halftime and a Giant comeback to win late will be a good outcome for all. Also am fighting to get into the finals in a fantasy league and Eli is my QB, so.......17-10 Dallas at halftime. 38-31 Giants final. Eli 340 yards and 4 TDS!
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Lol, lost the Bills over because of a missed XP. And here I thought Saturday was for amateur college ball.
GL with Dallas, Andy. I'm watching the game with my family who are Giant fans, so will be rooting the Giants, but a 17-10 Dallas lead at halftime and a Giant comeback to win late will be a good outcome for all. Also am fighting to get into the finals in a fantasy league and Eli is my QB, so.......17-10 Dallas at halftime. 38-31 Giants final. Eli 340 yards and 4 TDS!
Lost the Cowboys game by 1 point thanks mostly to a safety. Still felt better than another split.
Well here I am really on life support this week. 1 play left. Going hit the Thursday game and if I lose than that's it for the regular season roll and this nightmare will be over with. If I hit then unfortunately (or fortunately if you've been fading) it's on to Sunday.
Thursday:
Jacksonville/Atlanta UNDER ???
I loathe betting football Unders but I've looked this game up and down and have a strong feeling it stays under the number. I also like the fact we're getting couple of points because these teams played high scoring games last week, especially Jacksonville. The Jags did manage 41 last week but a lot of that was off Tampa turnovers. They managed just 325 yards last week which was their season high! How crazy is that? 18 teams average more than 325 yards per game. Insanity. So yes, the Jags offense is still absolutely garbage. Now they have to go on the road after a draining game on a short week. I just don't see how the can manage to come up with any kind of a gameplan that is going to net them some points. The passing game is an embarrassment and the Falcons are pretty good against the run. Before last week Jacksonville had scored more than 17 points in a game once all season.
So that leaves the Falcons. I hit the Over with the Falcons last week talking about how they put up a lot of points after low scoring losses. So how do they do after high scoring wins? In the Mike Smith era on a non-bye week after winning a game and scoring 30+ points here are the scores the Falcons have put up: 14, 13, 23, 23, 27, 20, 34, 14, 21, 19, 20, 20, 9, 9, 20, 22 for an average of 19.25. Twice in 16 games have they scored more than 23 points and just once were they over 30. The Under went 13-3 in those games. The Jags do have a lot of injuries on defense but this just feels like a game where the Falcons pound the rock, chew clock, get the W and move on to their 10 day break and MNF against the Saints next week. Stay healthy and move on. I don't see them coming out with a gameplan such as the one they had last week. I also think they may be a bit gassed after b2b road games and a very physical game with Houston two weeks ago and a huge 2nd half last week outscoring the Panthers 24-0.
Still undecided if I will hit the full game or the 1st half but leaning the 1st half as I think both teams come out a little flat after strong finishes last week. This games reeks of 24-10.
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Lost the Cowboys game by 1 point thanks mostly to a safety. Still felt better than another split.
Well here I am really on life support this week. 1 play left. Going hit the Thursday game and if I lose than that's it for the regular season roll and this nightmare will be over with. If I hit then unfortunately (or fortunately if you've been fading) it's on to Sunday.
Thursday:
Jacksonville/Atlanta UNDER ???
I loathe betting football Unders but I've looked this game up and down and have a strong feeling it stays under the number. I also like the fact we're getting couple of points because these teams played high scoring games last week, especially Jacksonville. The Jags did manage 41 last week but a lot of that was off Tampa turnovers. They managed just 325 yards last week which was their season high! How crazy is that? 18 teams average more than 325 yards per game. Insanity. So yes, the Jags offense is still absolutely garbage. Now they have to go on the road after a draining game on a short week. I just don't see how the can manage to come up with any kind of a gameplan that is going to net them some points. The passing game is an embarrassment and the Falcons are pretty good against the run. Before last week Jacksonville had scored more than 17 points in a game once all season.
So that leaves the Falcons. I hit the Over with the Falcons last week talking about how they put up a lot of points after low scoring losses. So how do they do after high scoring wins? In the Mike Smith era on a non-bye week after winning a game and scoring 30+ points here are the scores the Falcons have put up: 14, 13, 23, 23, 27, 20, 34, 14, 21, 19, 20, 20, 9, 9, 20, 22 for an average of 19.25. Twice in 16 games have they scored more than 23 points and just once were they over 30. The Under went 13-3 in those games. The Jags do have a lot of injuries on defense but this just feels like a game where the Falcons pound the rock, chew clock, get the W and move on to their 10 day break and MNF against the Saints next week. Stay healthy and move on. I don't see them coming out with a gameplan such as the one they had last week. I also think they may be a bit gassed after b2b road games and a very physical game with Houston two weeks ago and a huge 2nd half last week outscoring the Panthers 24-0.
Still undecided if I will hit the full game or the 1st half but leaning the 1st half as I think both teams come out a little flat after strong finishes last week. This games reeks of 24-10.
If anyone wants some fades if I somehow make it to Sunday I'll probably be on a couple of these:
Washington - I know the Giants need the game and yes it is a division game with revenge but I can't help but think they come out a little flat. This is the 1st game in a long time where they are playing a real doormat. The last two weeks they went toe to toe with the Packers only to lose late and then had a huge comeback on the road @ Dallas where there were 8 lead changes. Both were very high scoring, emotional games. I have a tough time seeing how the Giants find the energy for a 3rd straight week needed to win by this margin especially in a 1:00 game.
I think this is an old school low scoring game that will be decided late by 3 or 4. Skins certainly haven't quit, their defense is a good unit and they've been better with Rex all season and have been much better with a ground game with Helu. The Giants stink as favs anyways, typical of a .500 team. I know there is lots of talent on this team but they just look like a .500 team to me. There's a reason why they have so many 4th quarter comebacks and it's because they aren't good enough to win a game before then.
Carolina 1st half - I lean 1st half because I'm just not sold on Carolina's defense holding a rushing attack like this down on the road for 60 minutes. The Panthers have only been trailing by more than 4 points at halftime twice all season. They are +20 in 1st half scoring differential compared to -62 in the 2nd half which is something to be expected of a team with a rookie QB and bad defense not used to finishing games. I can't help but see the Texans coming out flat. Not only did they have a huge battle and comeback last week (which takes a lot out of teams at this time of the year) but they also clinched their 1st playoff berth in history, no doubt a huge monkey off their backs. They've been battling the critics all season but now they are expected to roll the 4-9 Panthers. I think they come out slow.
Oakland - Just not sold on the Lions. They have covered two spreads in the last two months and in one of those games they were trailing by 17 points. I know most people will say the story of last week was Tebow or the Giants but what completely blew me away was that the Lions were +6 in turnover margin, had two defensive TD's and not only didn't cover but almost lost the game outright!! That is absolutely crazy to me. Teams that give up defensive scores and are that bad in the turnover department usually get blown out by 30+. Minnesota piled up 270 rushing yards without their best player. This Lions team had a nice start but have shown to be just an average team and average teams shouldn't be road favorites.
I know the Raiders are off two stinkers but that should serve as motivation after being embarrassed by the Dolphins and Packers. That was a tough spot in Miami though and there is no shame in being pasted by Green Bay. The Raiders pass defense is actually pretty good. They held Rodgers to 57% last week and his numbers would have been very ordinary if he didn't throw up a prayer that landed in the hands of Jordy Nelson in triple coverage. The Raiders have the 2nd best opp completion % in the league and are 4th in sacks. Oakland's run defense is pathetic but Keiland Williams, Mo Morris, and/or a banged up Kevin Smith on grass scares nobody. The Lions rush defense is almost as bad as Oakland's but the Raiders running attack at home behind a good offensive line in a "MAN UP" game is something that should scare people.
Cleveland - Have to keep an eye on the Browns QB situation but I think they can hang around. Their defense is a good unit and sooner or later the run game should come together. Arizona is no longer flying under the radar. People now realize they are an improving young team after beating the Cowboys and 49ers as home dogs. I don't trust this team as a fav this big especially in a non-conference game off two huge wins. The Cardinals have not won a game all season by more than a TD. They have been home favs twice this year and though they won both games both wins came via Patrick Peterson punts returns. They were thoroughly outplayed in both games as the combined counts were -18 in 1st downs, -204 in yards, and -17.5 minutes in TOP. Those games came against the Panthers and Rams. I think Cleveland is better than both of those teams plus the Browns come in on some extra rest.
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If anyone wants some fades if I somehow make it to Sunday I'll probably be on a couple of these:
Washington - I know the Giants need the game and yes it is a division game with revenge but I can't help but think they come out a little flat. This is the 1st game in a long time where they are playing a real doormat. The last two weeks they went toe to toe with the Packers only to lose late and then had a huge comeback on the road @ Dallas where there were 8 lead changes. Both were very high scoring, emotional games. I have a tough time seeing how the Giants find the energy for a 3rd straight week needed to win by this margin especially in a 1:00 game.
I think this is an old school low scoring game that will be decided late by 3 or 4. Skins certainly haven't quit, their defense is a good unit and they've been better with Rex all season and have been much better with a ground game with Helu. The Giants stink as favs anyways, typical of a .500 team. I know there is lots of talent on this team but they just look like a .500 team to me. There's a reason why they have so many 4th quarter comebacks and it's because they aren't good enough to win a game before then.
Carolina 1st half - I lean 1st half because I'm just not sold on Carolina's defense holding a rushing attack like this down on the road for 60 minutes. The Panthers have only been trailing by more than 4 points at halftime twice all season. They are +20 in 1st half scoring differential compared to -62 in the 2nd half which is something to be expected of a team with a rookie QB and bad defense not used to finishing games. I can't help but see the Texans coming out flat. Not only did they have a huge battle and comeback last week (which takes a lot out of teams at this time of the year) but they also clinched their 1st playoff berth in history, no doubt a huge monkey off their backs. They've been battling the critics all season but now they are expected to roll the 4-9 Panthers. I think they come out slow.
Oakland - Just not sold on the Lions. They have covered two spreads in the last two months and in one of those games they were trailing by 17 points. I know most people will say the story of last week was Tebow or the Giants but what completely blew me away was that the Lions were +6 in turnover margin, had two defensive TD's and not only didn't cover but almost lost the game outright!! That is absolutely crazy to me. Teams that give up defensive scores and are that bad in the turnover department usually get blown out by 30+. Minnesota piled up 270 rushing yards without their best player. This Lions team had a nice start but have shown to be just an average team and average teams shouldn't be road favorites.
I know the Raiders are off two stinkers but that should serve as motivation after being embarrassed by the Dolphins and Packers. That was a tough spot in Miami though and there is no shame in being pasted by Green Bay. The Raiders pass defense is actually pretty good. They held Rodgers to 57% last week and his numbers would have been very ordinary if he didn't throw up a prayer that landed in the hands of Jordy Nelson in triple coverage. The Raiders have the 2nd best opp completion % in the league and are 4th in sacks. Oakland's run defense is pathetic but Keiland Williams, Mo Morris, and/or a banged up Kevin Smith on grass scares nobody. The Lions rush defense is almost as bad as Oakland's but the Raiders running attack at home behind a good offensive line in a "MAN UP" game is something that should scare people.
Cleveland - Have to keep an eye on the Browns QB situation but I think they can hang around. Their defense is a good unit and sooner or later the run game should come together. Arizona is no longer flying under the radar. People now realize they are an improving young team after beating the Cowboys and 49ers as home dogs. I don't trust this team as a fav this big especially in a non-conference game off two huge wins. The Cardinals have not won a game all season by more than a TD. They have been home favs twice this year and though they won both games both wins came via Patrick Peterson punts returns. They were thoroughly outplayed in both games as the combined counts were -18 in 1st downs, -204 in yards, and -17.5 minutes in TOP. Those games came against the Panthers and Rams. I think Cleveland is better than both of those teams plus the Browns come in on some extra rest.
Gabbert doesnt throw many balls over 10 yards and MJD will get plenty of carries. Ryan doesnt seem to be going deep very often and the Jax defense can get a few stops I think. Looks like a 24-13 Atl win to me.
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I like the U42.5 in the Atl/Jax game as well.
Gabbert doesnt throw many balls over 10 yards and MJD will get plenty of carries. Ryan doesnt seem to be going deep very often and the Jax defense can get a few stops I think. Looks like a 24-13 Atl win to me.
Oakland - Just not sold on the Lions. They have covered two spreads in the last two months and in one of those games they were trailing by 17 points. I know most people will say the story of last week was Tebow or the Giants but what completely blew me away was that the Lions were +6 in turnover margin, had two defensive TD's and not only didn't cover but almost lost the game outright!! That is absolutely crazy to me. Teams that give up defensive scores and are that bad in the turnover department usually get blown out by 30+. Minnesota piled up 270 rushing yards without their best player. This Lions team had a nice start but have shown to be just an average team and average teams shouldn't be road favorites.
I know the Raiders are off two stinkers but that should serve as motivation after being embarrassed by the Dolphins and Packers. That was a tough spot in Miami though and there is no shame in being pasted by Green Bay. The Raiders pass defense is actually pretty good. They held Rodgers to 57% last week and his numbers would have been very ordinary if he didn't throw up a prayer that landed in the hands of Jordy Nelson in triple coverage. The Raiders have the 2nd best opp completion % in the league and are 4th in sacks. Oakland's run defense is pathetic but Keiland Williams, Mo Morris, and/or a banged up Kevin Smith on grass scares nobody. The Lions rush defense is almost as bad as Oakland's but the Raiders running attack at home behind a good offensive line in a "MAN UP" game is something that should scare people.
Probably my favourite play of the week
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Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
Oakland - Just not sold on the Lions. They have covered two spreads in the last two months and in one of those games they were trailing by 17 points. I know most people will say the story of last week was Tebow or the Giants but what completely blew me away was that the Lions were +6 in turnover margin, had two defensive TD's and not only didn't cover but almost lost the game outright!! That is absolutely crazy to me. Teams that give up defensive scores and are that bad in the turnover department usually get blown out by 30+. Minnesota piled up 270 rushing yards without their best player. This Lions team had a nice start but have shown to be just an average team and average teams shouldn't be road favorites.
I know the Raiders are off two stinkers but that should serve as motivation after being embarrassed by the Dolphins and Packers. That was a tough spot in Miami though and there is no shame in being pasted by Green Bay. The Raiders pass defense is actually pretty good. They held Rodgers to 57% last week and his numbers would have been very ordinary if he didn't throw up a prayer that landed in the hands of Jordy Nelson in triple coverage. The Raiders have the 2nd best opp completion % in the league and are 4th in sacks. Oakland's run defense is pathetic but Keiland Williams, Mo Morris, and/or a banged up Kevin Smith on grass scares nobody. The Lions rush defense is almost as bad as Oakland's but the Raiders running attack at home behind a good offensive line in a "MAN UP" game is something that should scare people.
Well everyone and his dog is on this Under and everything points to the game staying under so it will most likely go Over. But I really don't care at this point. I haven't stuck with my initial leans many times this year and have been burned big.
I don't think the Jags score more than 10 points. The Falcons are pretty stout against the run and the Jags are banged up at WR. Two guys out for tonight including their #1. They #2 receiver was cut a couple of weeks ago. Their starting WR tonight will be Jarrett Dilard and Chastin West, yeah I've never heard of them either. Plus like I mentioned earlier it's a short week and they lose a lot of time they needed to implement a gameplan.
Jags are banged up on defense but like I said earlier I just don't see the Falcons coming out and going for the kill shot. I think it's just a game where they grind the clock, get the W, and move on because that's what they done in this spot before as I mentioned earlier. Atlanta is also 6-1 to the Under under Mike Smith as a -6.5 or more home fav off a win. In the lone Over the other team scored 27 and Jacksonville isn't scoring 27 tonight. It's also worth noting in games with a DD spread this year NOT involving the Packers or Saints there have been 16 Unders and 7 Overs with just 5 of the 23 games totaling more than 43 points.
GL but when I'm on an Under there will be at least 1 defensive/ST TD.
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Jacksonville/Atlanta UNDER 43 (-113)
Well everyone and his dog is on this Under and everything points to the game staying under so it will most likely go Over. But I really don't care at this point. I haven't stuck with my initial leans many times this year and have been burned big.
I don't think the Jags score more than 10 points. The Falcons are pretty stout against the run and the Jags are banged up at WR. Two guys out for tonight including their #1. They #2 receiver was cut a couple of weeks ago. Their starting WR tonight will be Jarrett Dilard and Chastin West, yeah I've never heard of them either. Plus like I mentioned earlier it's a short week and they lose a lot of time they needed to implement a gameplan.
Jags are banged up on defense but like I said earlier I just don't see the Falcons coming out and going for the kill shot. I think it's just a game where they grind the clock, get the W, and move on because that's what they done in this spot before as I mentioned earlier. Atlanta is also 6-1 to the Under under Mike Smith as a -6.5 or more home fav off a win. In the lone Over the other team scored 27 and Jacksonville isn't scoring 27 tonight. It's also worth noting in games with a DD spread this year NOT involving the Packers or Saints there have been 16 Unders and 7 Overs with just 5 of the 23 games totaling more than 43 points.
GL but when I'm on an Under there will be at least 1 defensive/ST TD.
Like your thinking with Oakland. Strongest play on the board, IMO
Like it the more I look at it. Also have a feeling the Bills get it done this week. I'll have to look at the quotes later but it's got to be tough for Miami battling their asses off for 6+ weeks for Sparano and then they lose one game and management throws Sparano out on the street? Miami can't even finish .500 now so they have absolutely nothing to play for. Bills were embarrassed by the Fish a few weeks ago and need a win. Fish have a much better defense but I'm not sure they show up. Hope the weather is shitty.
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Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:
Like your thinking with Oakland. Strongest play on the board, IMO
Like it the more I look at it. Also have a feeling the Bills get it done this week. I'll have to look at the quotes later but it's got to be tough for Miami battling their asses off for 6+ weeks for Sparano and then they lose one game and management throws Sparano out on the street? Miami can't even finish .500 now so they have absolutely nothing to play for. Bills were embarrassed by the Fish a few weeks ago and need a win. Fish have a much better defense but I'm not sure they show up. Hope the weather is shitty.
Tough beat on that under. That asshole doesn't muff that punt and it conceivably could have been 13 or 17-0 at halftime instead of 27-0. Then on top of that a blocked punt for a TD, a fumble for a TD, and a late BS touchdown in garbage time.
Was looking at the Bills, myself. Miami has to be completely deflated with the events of the last week or so(losing tough game and losing their coach). Meanwhile Bills bubble burst a month ago and have nothing but pride right now.
I wish big Ben didn't get banged up when he did. If his ankle wasn't a concern, I would have POUNDED Pittsburgh on Monday night.
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Tough beat on that under. That asshole doesn't muff that punt and it conceivably could have been 13 or 17-0 at halftime instead of 27-0. Then on top of that a blocked punt for a TD, a fumble for a TD, and a late BS touchdown in garbage time.
Was looking at the Bills, myself. Miami has to be completely deflated with the events of the last week or so(losing tough game and losing their coach). Meanwhile Bills bubble burst a month ago and have nothing but pride right now.
I wish big Ben didn't get banged up when he did. If his ankle wasn't a concern, I would have POUNDED Pittsburgh on Monday night.
Andy, you gotta look at the Colts. I get why people are saying last week was a lucky cover. Baltimore had 2 4th quarter t/o's. At the same time the Colts had some many opportunities to score at the end of that game, it just so happened to be on the final play. Worked out for me. I just cannot see a professional football team not giving 150% to try and avoid a winless season. I actually thought the line would open a little shorter than it did.
Its a rule of mine to only bet on Dolphins games where I confidently feel they cover. I have never once bet against my team but I am very, very strongly considering Buffalo whenever I can get a line on it.
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Andy, you gotta look at the Colts. I get why people are saying last week was a lucky cover. Baltimore had 2 4th quarter t/o's. At the same time the Colts had some many opportunities to score at the end of that game, it just so happened to be on the final play. Worked out for me. I just cannot see a professional football team not giving 150% to try and avoid a winless season. I actually thought the line would open a little shorter than it did.
Its a rule of mine to only bet on Dolphins games where I confidently feel they cover. I have never once bet against my team but I am very, very strongly considering Buffalo whenever I can get a line on it.
Tough beat on that under. That asshole doesn't muff that punt and it conceivably could have been 13 or 17-0 at halftime instead of 27-0. Then on top of that a blocked punt for a TD, a fumble for a TD, and a late BS touchdown in garbage time.
Was looking at the Bills, myself. Miami has to be completely deflated with the events of the last week or so(losing tough game and losing their coach). Meanwhile Bills bubble burst a month ago and have nothing but pride right now.
I wish big Ben didn't get banged up when he did. If his ankle wasn't a concern, I would have POUNDED Pittsburgh on Monday night.
You bet a red hot quarterback (Ryan) with elite playmaking receivers going against a team with virtually every defensive starter on IR to not score very much... and it was a tough beat ?
And above me, I have a gentleman advocating a bet on the Colts getting less than a TD. A very wise handicapper recently said "There is no value on the Colts at anything less than 2 TDs from here on out. Don't buy into the "they'll fight for a win" BS. They haven't all year, why now ?
Y'all out-think yourselves to the point of exhaustion.
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Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:
Tough beat on that under. That asshole doesn't muff that punt and it conceivably could have been 13 or 17-0 at halftime instead of 27-0. Then on top of that a blocked punt for a TD, a fumble for a TD, and a late BS touchdown in garbage time.
Was looking at the Bills, myself. Miami has to be completely deflated with the events of the last week or so(losing tough game and losing their coach). Meanwhile Bills bubble burst a month ago and have nothing but pride right now.
I wish big Ben didn't get banged up when he did. If his ankle wasn't a concern, I would have POUNDED Pittsburgh on Monday night.
You bet a red hot quarterback (Ryan) with elite playmaking receivers going against a team with virtually every defensive starter on IR to not score very much... and it was a tough beat ?
And above me, I have a gentleman advocating a bet on the Colts getting less than a TD. A very wise handicapper recently said "There is no value on the Colts at anything less than 2 TDs from here on out. Don't buy into the "they'll fight for a win" BS. They haven't all year, why now ?
Y'all out-think yourselves to the point of exhaustion.
You bet a red hot quarterback (Ryan) with elite playmaking receivers going against a team with virtually every defensive starter on IR to not score very much... and it was a tough beat ?
And above me, I have a gentleman advocating a bet on the Colts getting less than a TD. A very wise handicapper recently said "There is no value on the Colts at anything less than 2 TDs from here on out. Don't buy into the "they'll fight for a win" BS. They haven't all year, why now ?
Y'all out-think yourselves to the point of exhaustion.
Yeah because the Falcons wouldn't have called off the dogs up 27-0 as they have done all year, they were waiting for 41-0.
Those 10 free points off turnovers inside the 17 were a gift. On top of that there was a blocked punt return TD and a fumble return TD.
Cap that shit. Nice hit on your over.
Fitting way to end.
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Quote Originally Posted by Getty3:
You bet a red hot quarterback (Ryan) with elite playmaking receivers going against a team with virtually every defensive starter on IR to not score very much... and it was a tough beat ?
And above me, I have a gentleman advocating a bet on the Colts getting less than a TD. A very wise handicapper recently said "There is no value on the Colts at anything less than 2 TDs from here on out. Don't buy into the "they'll fight for a win" BS. They haven't all year, why now ?
Y'all out-think yourselves to the point of exhaustion.
Yeah because the Falcons wouldn't have called off the dogs up 27-0 as they have done all year, they were waiting for 41-0.
Those 10 free points off turnovers inside the 17 were a gift. On top of that there was a blocked punt return TD and a fumble return TD.
You bet a red hot quarterback (Ryan) with elite playmaking receivers going against a team with virtually every defensive starter on IR to not score very much... and it was a tough beat ?
I didn't bet that under. Just making an observation that a muffed punt led to a one play TD, a blocked punt for a TD, a fumble 6, and a last minute garbage TD in 41-7 game was suicide for an under.
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Quote Originally Posted by Getty3:
You bet a red hot quarterback (Ryan) with elite playmaking receivers going against a team with virtually every defensive starter on IR to not score very much... and it was a tough beat ?
I didn't bet that under. Just making an observation that a muffed punt led to a one play TD, a blocked punt for a TD, a fumble 6, and a last minute garbage TD in 41-7 game was suicide for an under.
Small card for me tomorrow. Was with my stepdaugheter last night, hung out with her all day today in NYC, and pretty much just got home so haven't done much capping the last couple days. Got locked out of the Cowboys tonight as I was watching the line all day on my phone, but got caught up into conning DelFriscos steakhouse in Manhattan into thinking I had reservations, but really was bullshitting to weasel a table on probably the busiest day of the year. After battling with assorted managers, they finally squeezed us into a table, but by then I missed the kickoff.
The few games I am playing are.....
Oakland ML EV Cleveland +7 or so(off the board with my books, but what I expect it to be around) Jets +3 Pitt +3
Other than those, gonna be laying off these games.
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Small card for me tomorrow. Was with my stepdaugheter last night, hung out with her all day today in NYC, and pretty much just got home so haven't done much capping the last couple days. Got locked out of the Cowboys tonight as I was watching the line all day on my phone, but got caught up into conning DelFriscos steakhouse in Manhattan into thinking I had reservations, but really was bullshitting to weasel a table on probably the busiest day of the year. After battling with assorted managers, they finally squeezed us into a table, but by then I missed the kickoff.
The few games I am playing are.....
Oakland ML EV Cleveland +7 or so(off the board with my books, but what I expect it to be around) Jets +3 Pitt +3
Other than those, gonna be laying off these games.
Goddamn, got smoked with my Oakland line. Just jumped to 3 and +130.
Looking for a solid home chalk to finish my card as I don't like all having a set of bets dominated by road teams. Problem is out of all the games on the card, the only two I would even consider are the Texans who have a 3rd string QB, and the Giants who LIVE to squander games like this.
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Goddamn, got smoked with my Oakland line. Just jumped to 3 and +130.
Looking for a solid home chalk to finish my card as I don't like all having a set of bets dominated by road teams. Problem is out of all the games on the card, the only two I would even consider are the Texans who have a 3rd string QB, and the Giants who LIVE to squander games like this.
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