NFL Week 11

Like both your plays and am on them with you.  Surprised you are not on TB...less than a fg at home now, which is a joke.  I know Freeman is banged up, but even if he doesn't play (likely will play) Josh Johnson is a beast that not many know about.  The perception is that Car is just as good or better than TB and getting points.  This in part has to do with where each teams expectations were coming into this season...Car has exceeded theirs and TB is clearly underachieving.  But I point to one thing....TB schedule has been brutal...toughest in the NFL for that matter.  Meanwhile, Car has had just the opposite.  Car. coming into TB will be a huge drop off in talent compared to who TB has played of late and we get a nice discount with TB as a result.  BOL this week, bud

Interested to hear your thoughts on Zona and the G-Men. I tried to make a good case for the Giants but they ended up being the last cut. They have a habit of hanging and even getting games like this.

I will be interested to see how the Packers play when (and if) Rodgers just has a so-so game and not an exceptional one. Although the more I look at this team the more they look like the 09 Saints. Just a team with a stud QB-coach combo that is far ahead of the curve and a defense that while not great statistically is money at forcing key turnovers.

I agree with you about Johnson and dont think there will be a drop from Freeman to him as Freeman has been brutal this year. Im just not sure where the mindset of a young Bucs team will be. They were saying they still had playoff hopes before last week but that was a tough loss. They lead the game with 4 minutes left before giving up a TD on 4th down to finish their season for good.

Both defenses stink and cant stop the run but I think I trust the Panthers offense and their trio of runners a little more than a Tampa team that doesn't really have explosive playmakers. Although it is a tough spot for the Panthers playing a road game for the 3rd straight week.

GL bro nice run you have been on.

Giants game I think those D-Lineman look at their last game and see WHAT NOT TO DO to get pressure on a quarterback. I think those guys are gonna come out and get crazy pressure on A-Rod without blitzing anybody.  Rodgers has been so fucking good that it has kind of shielded the fact that his line is still the shaky crew from the last couple of years.  Teams have gotten to him.  A-Rod is just so good that he finds ways to overcome the shaky line play. I think the Giants can really beat the shit out of him.  On the other side of the ball, no Hawk, no Bishop, possibly no Walden.  Manning can shred this defense and as long as he doesn't throw picks and the Giants don't do their customary false start or holding penalty to kill good drives, I can see them putting up some points. 

Zona more of a gut play.  Getting back their QB.  Been quietly playing good ball with John fucking Skelton running the show.  And who exactly is this Dallas team that suddenly is a lock for the East crown and everyones darling?  Barely beat Miami.  Almost lost to Washington.  Seattle gave them a helluva game.  Philly cornholed them.  PHILLY OF ALL TEAMS!  Just a gut feeling Zona comes out and grinds out a win.

Hang tough buddy

1-1 just juicing out here.

Fuck the Bears. Should have never bet on a garbage team like that. They never took the Chiefs seriously missing wide open receivers and lining up offsides on TD's. Should have been up 2 scores early and taken the Cheifs run game out of it but instead they commit mental mistakes, lose their best player, and give up a hail mary. My 2011 NFL season.

Time to try something different this week. Just praying to the gods for a 2-0 or 0-2 not another 1-1 to prolong the agony.


New Orleans/Tennessee OVER 48 -115

I'm not sure the Saints offense stops rolling here. They have made a point the last few weeks to talk about how flat and pathetic they were in that Rams game a few weeks back where they were completely shutout in the 1st half and only managed some garbage scores late. Now this is a very similar situation out on the road after a big PT home win. I think Brees and Payton will be focused this week to avoid laying another egg in a similar spot. The Titans have some decent pass defense stats but I think we should look at how they have done against winning teams. They held Baltimore down in Week 2 but that was a huge flatspot for them. They also held the Broncos in check in Week 3 but that is nowhere near the same team as now. Since then they have faced 4 winning teams and surrendered 38, 41, 24, and 23 points to go along with an average of 425 yards all against offenses not as good as New Orleans.

I'm not so sure about the Saints defense however. Their offense is usually pretty consistent but the defense is not. If we throw out the Jacksonville game (because they aren't even a high school offense) the Saints have given up 42, 27, 26, 31, and 23 points on the road this year (29.8 per). Interesting trend with this unit I've noticed too is since the start of last year after they have allowed less than 20 points on a non-bye week they have allowed these totals: 22, 30, 30, 3, 27, 30, 23, 33, 27, 23. All but one with at least 22 points and I think we should also consider throwing that 3 point game out as it was against a Jimmy Clausen led Panther offense that was one of the worst in NFL history. Without that game in this spot they have allowed 27.2 PPG. To make matters worse for the Saints D their run defense has been horrendous and they face a team that has found their running game again. This fact has been much publicized and I wouldn't be surprised if the Saints bring an extra man down to the box which wasn't needed against the Titans earlier in the year allowing Hasselbeck to hit some plays over the top for a nice balanced attack. 31-24 somebody.


Atlanta/Carolina OVER ???

The Falcons offense was pathetic last week against the Texans which is great news here because they should explode. I've brought this up several times in the last year but under Mike Smith the Falcons have put up some big points after scoring 20 or fewer in their previous game and also losing that game SU. Their individual team point totals in the next game have gone like this: 41, 39, 45, 31, 27, 23, 24, 38, 45, 31, 35, 30, and 31 for an average of 33.9 PPG. It should also be noted that all but two of those games had at least 48 total points scored but again let's look at the two which had less: 2010 against the Jimmy Clausen led Panthers where Carolina managed 10 points and 2009 against the JaMarcus Russel led Raiders where Oakland was shutout. Let's throw those two games out we'll see the other 11 games have had at least 48 points scored and averaged 57 PPG. Incidentally Atlanta is 12-1 ATS in this spot.

I haven't even mentioned the fact that the Panthers defense is just awful. They have had injuries galore on that unit and BOTH starting defensive tackles got hurt last week and were put on IR today. They barely have any NFL players left. This unit allowed Curtis Painter to score 19 points and a backup Bucs QB to get 19 last week.

Atlanta defensively has been good against the run this year but they still stink against the pass. They also have injuries in the back and I think the Panthers can put some points on the board. No one really has an answer for Cam Newton right now. There are a lot of dynamic playmakers on this Panthers offense and I think they put up some points for the home crowd after just scoring 3 in a pathetic performance in their last home game. 31-24 somebody.

Hoping for a 2-0 to hit the Cowboys on SNF.

GL.

Oh god that's exactly how I felt when I went 1-1 with my NHL plays today just can't go plus in that damn sport

BOL this week I haven't played many totals of late but I like the Tenn Over got a weird feeling about the ATL over but your reasoning sounds pretty spot on

Good thoughts on the two totals, Andy.  I noticed no sides this week.  You hate this card as much as I do?  Brutal stack of games, imo.

One game really sticks out to me and it is Cincinnati -3. Do you have any thoughts on this one?   I'm a sucker for Houston and have ridden them many a game this year as well as need them for a couple props(division/AFC champs), but I think this is the week their great run ends.  I like Yates(he made UNC a winner and I always respected him for that) and I think he can have reasonable success down the stretch for this team.  Not that he is a phenom or anything like that, but he inherits a squad in position for a home playoff game or two and possibly even a bye.  A team playing very good defense, with a very good home crowd behind them, and arguably the best running attack in the league.  Toss in Andre Johnson, a gaggle of talented TE safety nets to throw to, and with some luck he could definitely steal that bye I just mentioned and be a win over the Broncos or Raiders from the AFC championship game.  They also have a favorable schedule looking forward with Carolina, Indy, and Tennessee on their plate and there's a good chance the Titans will come out flat in that Week 17 game as I think their slim playoff chances will have been extinguished just a week or two prior.

So looking at the big picture, I still like Houston even with a 3rd string QB at the helm.  But just not in this game.  As good as their defense has been playing, let's not forget they had a Schaub run offense helping them out on the other side of the ball.  They have a great line and running attack, but having an above average QB lining up is the biggest factor to that success which leads to increased TOP(don't quote me but I think they are top 2 or 3 in that stat), which leads to the defense being on the field less and yada yada yada.  So that D which has been awesome now has to CARRY the team, rather than compliment them.  Also, looking at who they have played this year, it isn't exactly a juggernaut group of offense they have had to stop. Saints, Ravens, Steelers, Falcons are about the only teams that I would classify as NOT dogshit on that schedule. 

Yates nicely managed a game last week at HOME, but now makes his first road start in the NFL.  I wish I could say that Cincy has a great crowd behind them because that alone would make me feel much more confident in this bet, but in reality their stadium and fans suck the root.  Still, first road start for a baby 3rd stringer getting thrown into the mix is a tough task.  This Cincy team is a scrappy little squad who have been in some dogfights this year.  Injuries are starting to really wear the Bungles down(especially in the secondary) as you can see they aren't the same squad from the first 7-8 weeks, but if their ever was a recipe for hiding those weaknesses, wouldn't it be a rookie QB making his first start on the road?  Injuries or not, I think they are still physical enough to hold Houston's running attack in check, and in that case, IMO, that leaves Yates to no longer manage the game and get a win on the road, but go out and WIN that game.  Tough task. 

Other than that, really don't care for any other games on this stinker of a card.  I would be on Minnesota +10 or so, but Ponder's health is keeping me away.  Detroit's D isn't exactly scary, but they get after the QB, and I don't need to make a play on a banged on QB if he even plays.  Bills +7.5 is probably gonna be a play as well.  I made up my mind a couple weeks ago that Buffalo would be pass or fade the rest of the year, but seeing SD laying a touchdown is laughable.  Hey, maybe Buffalo makes the west coast trip and gets smashed?  I just don't believe SD should be laying those kind of points.  I would set this game at -4.5 and that's only because of the extreme travel for Buffalo.  If they were the Charlotte Chargers, this would be a straight up -3.  7.5 is nuts.

GL Andy.  Get a sweep and build up a few bucks for the playoff run and bowl games!

 

Shit, just looked at my other book and Buffalo is +9.  Couldn't resist that!

A few weeks back I stumbled onto a new local who has incredible lines(albeit when used together with other books).  I tried to explain that a week or two ago from my phone(scroll up and you will see jumbled attempts at messages), but that mobile site is dogshit and I literally lost 3 long posts in one frustrated hour while I sat in the mall parking lot waiting for my stepdaughter and her friend to shop.  Anyway, this new guy shades the favorites hardcore.  Any game that is -3 is 3.5 with him.  -4's are 4.5 or 5's with him.  -6 or -6.5 are 7.  -7 is 7.5-9.  It is fantastic and such an advantage.  I wonder what he has to offer in baseball next year because losing Pinnacle and then Matchbook really left me hurting in that sport.  I can handle -110 in NFL but those 10 and 20 cent lines in MLB wear me down over a long baseball season.

No go on the Colts this week Andy? This seems like a good spot. Hoping it gets to 17. With only 4 games to go the Colts should be playing for a little pride. Last week the Colts looked like a professional team, albeit it was in the 4th quarter of a blowout against NE. Still they came to life.

No go on the Colts this week Andy? This seems like a good spot. Hoping it gets to 17. With only 4 games to go the Colts should be playing for a little pride. Last week the Colts looked like a professional team, albeit it was in the 4th quarter of a blowout against NE. Still they came to life.

Like the Atl/Car over, but New Orleans/Tenn is going under

I have to agree with you man the side plays have been pretty week the past couple of Sundays. I only mildly entertained the idea of 4 sides but ultimately liked the totals much better.

One of them was Cincy. I agree with almost everything you said. It was a nice story for Yates to get the win last week but that was at home and the Falcons played like shit. Man they dropped a lot of passes last week. I don't like the idea of Cincy being a home fav but this is a spot against a 9-3 team and in desperate need of a win I'm not sure they "feel" like a fav. Yates only completed 48% of his passes last week and that was with Andre Johnson. 9 of his 25 attempts went to Johnson and this week he is out so I think he could have some struggles if he has to throw the ball. The Bengals secondary is week but this passing attack looks really soft right now. Bengals have been solid against the run all year and I think they can stack the box in this one. Bengals really need a win too, rookie QB, no Andre Johnson, if they were ever going to empty the book and try to grab one this has to be it right?

I like Dallas too. I was going to play them if I won a game Sunday but the line continues to go up. I just think the Giants are done. The injuries are catching up to them, their defense stinks, and they can't run a lick. I know Dallas has looked like shit lately but this just seems like a spot where they show up and put it together in a big game. They get Miles Austin back too which should be a boost. His absence was probably actually a blessing this year as they found a 3rd WR in Robinson. Giants have struggled stopping the run too, I look for Dallas to try to get Murray going again.

Philadelphia made me look twice. Great run for Miami but they can't keep up this level of play forever. Only concern was where was the Eagles mindset? If they are over the fact that they are done they may just play well here with no pressure. If they showed up in a discombobulated mess again then they probably lose again. The Eagles are rested though and very quietly they got healthy. Vick is back. Maclin is back. Ashougha looks to be back to full health and Rodgers-Cromartie is expected to play. This team has been chewed out for 10 days, maybe they show up and save some face.

I also looked at Jacksonville. Why the fuck is Tampa Bay favored here, is this a joke? The Bucs are just awful and are a complete mess. Lots of rumblings around Tampa that Morris has lost the team. He kicked Price out of the game last week for a penalty, he didn't just bench him but sent him to the showers. This team had playoffs hopes coming into the year and actually started 4-2 but now it looks like these young kids have mailed it in and can't handle losing. I might look at Tampa as a big dog but as a road fav? No way. I know the Jags offense is an embarrassment but they actually had their most yards last week since Week 1 if you can believe. I caught a bit of the MNF game and they actually put together a couple of decent drives to go up 14-10. Problem was their banged up secondary gave it back when Rivers started throwing bombs to his suddenly healthy group pf receivers. The Bucs don't have the horses to attack the Jags weakness like that. I think the Jags built on their offensive momentum a little bit. Jones-Drew should run wild on this pathetic run defense and with Talib out maybe he can hit some shots down field as well.

GL this week buddy.

I'm just worried about their ability to score. The Patriots defense is pathetic and they essentially gave up in the 4th Q last week. The Ravens played well last week against a bad team answering a lot of the critics who say they take bad teams lightly. It's possible they revert back to form this week though and take the Colts lightly, how can they not? Leopards really never change their spots. The Colts are just so terrible though. If I thought Indy could manage 10-13 points I'd take a shot.

GL Jerry.

Not another 1-1.

Line went up to 50 today so at least I have a good line. I deserve a good result for doing that much.

Hit Atlanta/Carolina OVER 47.

Weather looks great in Charlotte and Nashville on Sunday, not a cloud expected in either city. Let's score some god damn points.

GL this week.

I completely agree on this even with Freeman back they can't take advantage of a Jags secondary- the Bucs have quit and you know that because every time get a quick 2 TD lead by just pounding it up the gut every play- I'm prob gonna be on the Jags this spot suits them better a young team like that isn't used to the limelight when people thought they could beat SD- I'm really feeling the Jags here and I love how people forgot that a shitty Carolina team playing their 3rd straight road game took a shit on a Bucs team with the game over within 5 minutes

4-1 last week and a great write-up on Cincy- GL Glyde

I'm a bit buzzed Mac so pardon anything that doesn't make sense haha

Mac, don't think I can back Dallas as those rivalry games are unpredictable, and Jax are just an injured piece of dogshit with internal problems at the moment, but you make some good points with the Eagles. Reality has finally caught up with the perception that they are a good football team, and finally getting them at a line they deserve to be might be a good play. Miami has been playing lights out lately, but I think they are gonna have a lot of trouble defending that spread offense with all their weapons. Vick is back and looks to be ready to roll and with the way this season shook out, I think he thinks he has a lot to prove in finishing the season strong. As for team motivation, I think those overpaid bums are over the fact that the season is dead and will play out the remainder to save Reid's job if anything. Throw in the extra rest and I think they can win this one. I usually hate to go against a team that is playing so damn good, but let's be real.....miami isn't exactly the most talented team and are playing way over their heads.

I doubt this line moves, but gonna keep an eye and jump if it clicks to 3.5.

It's at -117 at +3 on Pinny and on the move down to +2.5- btw I'm with you on the Bengals buddy let's get em!

Yeah I've been beaten up and am just worn down at this point. I looked at these totals and saw some great trends so I hit them instead of a couple of sides. Need to switch it up and try to get a win. I know these totals are public plays but I have some solid reasons for making the plays.

Even though there isn't much room for error I think at least one team in each game gets to 31, that means the other will have to score less than 17. I just don't see any of these guys getting less than 17. The Falcons are in a spot they historically score in bunches against a completely decimated defense, hard to see them not hitting 30. The Panthers have an explosive offense and have scored less than 17 points just twice all year. They could even drop 30 in this game I'm not sold on the Falcons D. The Saints defense is a sieve against the run and the Titans should be able to score. Saints offense on grass could be a worry but there is an interesting dynamic with this game: Everyone loves the Titans. I've read this forum all week and more people are on Tennessee than New Orleans. The thinking has hit mainstream as well as every article, publication, and pundit has talked about how the Saints stink on the road and/or grass. This is a sexy upset pick. I have a sneaky feeling the Saints may be motivated this week even though there are COUNTLESS trends that say this is a bad spot for them. If they are motivated they will score at will on a Titans defense that I think is grossly overrated. Once a trend has hit the mainstream it is usually time to go the other way, and the fact the Saints have been poor on the road really since their loss @ Seattle in the playoffs has definitely hit the mainstream.

Hope for a 2-0 (6-0) as well Disco.