Alright I won a game let's see if I can get a couple more on Sunday:
Cleveland +7.5I don't trust the Bengals to win a game by over a TD in this spot at all. It is always tough to play a game after a physical beating against either Baltimore or Pittsburgh but the Bengals play this one off games against both of those teams! And on top of that they have to play @ Pittsburgh again next week. Although the Bengals may "need" this game I don't think they will have enough to win by over a TD. It's not like Cleveland is going to quit either, these guys finally got a win last week and I think they carry that over. Plus they will be looking for revenge in a big division game (for them) after Cincy whipped them by double digits on their own field in their home opener no less. Cleveland will be looking to play spoiler and will want this one just as much as the Bengals.
The Bengals are a little better statistically but not as much as you might think. Cleveland is -7 YPG while Cincy is just +18. I also think the Bengals defense is being priced a lot higher than what they really are right now. Leon Hall was their best defensive player and I think that unit will suffer mightily without him. The Browns offense has been anemic but they did get Massaquoi back last week and he should have a more expanded role here in his 2nd game back. McCoy and Dalton basically have the same numbers however I have some concerns about Dalton. It is usually around this time where rookies hit the "rookie wall" and after putting it up 45 times last week I wonder if this is the game we see it from Dalton.
San Diego -6Going to hit these turds again. Not a whole lot to say here except I think this is a nice spot for the Tebow magical run to come to an end. He's been a nice story but let's face it he sucks as a passer. The Chargers big weakness is their pass defense and the Broncos won't be able to take advantage. Lost in the game last week was the fact that the Chargers defensive line played their best game of the year against the run and the young players up front finally looked to come together. If they can contain the run again here then Denver is in big trouble.
The Chargers offensive line is a mess but they did not allow a sack last week on the road against a very good Bears front. This is basically a must win game for San Diego. If they are ever going to come out and put together a complete game then this is the spot at home against a division rival off of 5 straight losses. Especially when I don't think Denver can attack their biggest weakness.
Philadelphia +?I'll wait and see what the line does first but I will be on this. I think Philly is worth riding for another week. I know they are 4-6 and by all accounts have been a colossal disaster this season but when you step back and look at it really only two things (and in combination) have done them in this year and they have been the fact the can't handle expectations and abysmal 4th quarter play. The good news here is they are expected to lose and I think they can build off a nice 4th quarter last week where they responded to a Giants score with a huge drive and then stopped the Giants the next time they got the ball so maybe they have gotten over their 4th quarter meltdowns.
Philly is still a very dangerous team. They are 3rd in total offense and 12th in total defense. The only other teams in the Top 12 in both categories sport records of 7-3, 7-3, 7-4, and 7-4. They are 3rd in the league in net first downs and 3rd in net yardage. They just have to put it together and I think this is a spot where they can because they won't have any expectations on them. Look at most of their losses this year, they came as huge favs where they were expected to romp. Now they are dogs again and look out of the playoff picture. I think they play loose and with a nothing to lose attitude again and go play balls out trying to grab another one.
The Patriots aren't that good. Their defense is horrible and similar type teams to the Eagles that they have played recently (Steelers, Cowboys, Giants, teams that can move the ball and play defense) have held this vaunted offense to 20, 17, and 20 points by getting pressure on Brady and chewing clock on offense. The Pats went 0-3 ATS in those games and lost TOP in all 3. Philly can run the ball and I think can set up lots of 3rd and shorts for Young, the Patriots are horrible on 3rd down defense. The Eagles also have a very deep defensive line and can rush the passer from the end or tackle positions. Brady gets rattled if you can get heat on him and get him dancing. The fact the Patriots were softened up by the Chiefs 6 days ago can't be a help either as they are about to go on the road to face a very talented and physical team with absolutely nothing to lose.
Vince Young or Micheal Vick makes no difference here. Looks like it will be Young and throughout his career he has been money as an underdog. No Maclin = No concerns with Young starting. We saw last week the chemistry he had with Riley Cooper who he practiced with all year on the scout team. If Young is starting I'd rather have Cooper in there than Maclin. Every year around this time there is a team that looks dead but makes a big time run at the playoffs. A couple years ago I rode an Eagles team that was left for dead all the way to the NFC Championship game. Last season I rode the Packers after they were left for dead all the way to the Super Bowl where I regrettably jumped off. Obviously this is a big game but there is nothing more dangerous than a talented team playing loose and with nothing to lose. Don't be surprised if the Eagles are the team this year that gets red hot and comes back from the dead.
GL.
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