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NFL Week 1

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andarmac99

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Posted: Sep. 8, 2011 - 12:43 PM ET #76

Quote Originally Posted by REMYREVERE:

Like the picks Andy, although I can't bring myself to lay that many points with SD due to the boat load of cash they lost me last season early on. Need to see if they truly got their head out their asses. Looks like we are opposite on the Eagles/Rams but I am with you on rest. I also tailed Glyde on Pitt.

Eagles -4.5

Packers -4.5

TB -1.5

Falcons -3

Pitt +2.5

GL to all

Good stuff in you other post Remy. Good to see you again and good luck this week.

andarmac99

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Posted: Sep. 8, 2011 - 1:01 PM ET #77

Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:

Andy, I agree with you on your Lions assessment. Something in my gut tells me Tampa is the play here, and it is nice how that line keeps dropping. I'm not sure if I am gonna fire, and I'm sure I will regret it if I don't go with them.

I was talking to my grandpa yesterday. He is in his 80s and the last few years he has become obsessed with sports. He watches ESPN all day long and has a crew of old folk he hangs with at Shoprite that talk sports all day, and that whole crew are the epitomy of the term "square." My grandpa is the ringleader. There's Colostomy Bag Jack. There's Former NFL Dallas Cowboy Mike(dude is HUGE). There's Racist Tim and Tourettes Joe. What a crew of sports fans. Anyway, he calls me yesterday and before I can even say "hello," he is saying, "Boy, you won't guess who I think is gonna be the surprise team this year. It's the Lions. They have some talent on the offense and that Stafford can throw. And the defensive line? Suh is all pro and they just showed on ESPN how they brutalized the Patriot offensive line a few weeks ago and chased Brady around. I've been talking with my friends and we all think Detroit is the team."

Just hearing that confirms the Lions 8-8 season for me. As for Week 1, I'm just not confident enough in Tampa to make the move. They are one of those teams where I'm gonna have to see them in action a few weeks before I truly get a gauge on Freeman, the OL, and most importantly the defense. Probably gonna pass, but wouldn't be surprised if TB comes out and punches the Lions in the mouth.

I don't think there has been more hype for a 6-10 team in the history of the NFL. I've scanned most threads in the forum over the last week and think it's about 8-1 in favor of Detroit over Tampa. I mean they do have some nice pieces and will play well at times (especially at home) this year but they haven't earned or proven anything yet. They host KC in Week 2 and I think that is a much better spot. Then they play Minny in Week 3, Dallas after that and then host Chicago on MNF and San Fran the week after. There aren't too many spots coming up where it might be the right play to go against them so I think this could be the one.

Tampa went 10-6 last year, they are a proven team. I love Freeman. They can run, pass, have a good offensive line (Top 10 in Yards per Rush and Fewest sacks allowed last year). They did have holes on defense but remade their whole pass rush and the run defense should be a lot better. They finished 2nd last in yards per rush allowed but they actually only allowed 4.38 before McCoy got hurt which is about middle of the pack. I don't trust the Lions offensive line, run game, or secondary......key pieces needed to win a road game. I think Tampa is the play once again not getting any love at all.

Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:

raems

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Posted: Sep. 8, 2011 - 1:16 PM ET #78

another point to make in reference to Lions love--they were by far the best team in the league last year at covering spreads, don't remember the exact record but I believe it was something along the lines of 11-5 ats (maybe even better). That type of # is just bound to regress this season, especially in a spot where they're a public short dog. I don't see any very good reason to confidently expect them to open the season with a road win, let against the same team whose playoff chances they ruined late last year.

REMYREVERE

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Posted: Sep. 9, 2011 - 1:31 AM ET #79

Green Bay added a little excitement with our

. Hell of an opening day !

andarmac99

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Posted: Sep. 9, 2011 - 6:16 AM ET #80

Quote Originally Posted by REMYREVERE:

Green Bay added a little excitement with our

. Hell of an opening day !

A little? I sweated off 10 pounds in the last two minutes of that game. What a rush there.

Prevent defense.

Randall Cobb

Aaron Rodgers

HungerforMoney

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Posted: Sep. 9, 2011 - 4:33 PM ET #81

What Fuking game! Being on Gb was though but there defense yet again pull through and Saints put there hope on a roookie!! History repeats itself. HAHA

Who Dat, Greenbay dat!
GB

Odds1_stinker

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Posted: Sep. 9, 2011 - 4:45 PM ET #82

Great work bro

What is your take on Pats against Dolphins?

TMase

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Posted: Sep. 9, 2011 - 4:51 PM ET #83

Professional1

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Posted: Sep. 9, 2011 - 5:08 PM ET #84

i am on tb my only play besides the pack.

165yds

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Posted: Sep. 9, 2011 - 5:52 PM ET #85

At 6pm Monday, Miami will be a play at +7. Their defense and ground game should be able to stay within a TD. Great thread as always, GL this weekend.

andarmac99

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Posted: Sep. 9, 2011 - 6:03 PM ET #86

Quote Originally Posted by Odds1_stinker:

Great work bro

What is your take on Pats against Dolphins?

See Post #85.

New England is overrated. I don't see how they've improved. They still have the same smallish receivers and very questionable secondary. No chance Brady throws only 4 picks this year and they finish +28 in TO's or whatever insane number it was. FWIW I think the Jets win the division. Seeing them as the co-Super Bowl favs with Green Bay was puzzling. They are the 3rd or 4th best team in their own conference IMO, could be wrong.

andarmac99

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Posted: Sep. 9, 2011 - 6:04 PM ET #87

Quote Originally Posted by Professional1:

i am on tb my only play besides the pack.

Respect is earned, not given.

nepatriots_12

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Posted: Sep. 9, 2011 - 8:03 PM ET #88

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

See Post #85.

I beg to differ Andy. Maybe it's just because I'm a Pats fan, but I truly believe they are the team to beat in the AFC.

Smallish Receivers - Can't disagree with you there, but they did add Ocho Cinco who has some size and it remains to be seen if he has anything left in the tank. If he does he can bring what they're missing on the outside. Your also forgetting they have 2 elite young Tight Ends in Hernandez/Gronkowski who have size and can gain those tough yards. Welker might be small but hes a tough SOB.

Running Backs - One of the reasons for their playoff loss was a lack of running game/predictable offense. When Green Ellis was in you knew they would run and Woodhead you knew it was a pass. The Jets took advantage of this and were able to call D's based on who they saw out there. They added a big time guy in Stevan Ridley who looked amazing in the pre-season showing a mix of power, speed and ability to catch the ball and he can become the all around back this offense needs.

Secondary - With the release of Merriweather, yea they have a hole there, but Chung is a great talent and hopefully he continues to get better. McCourty is an elite corner and he'll only continue to get better also. Something people are forgetting is the return of Leigh Bodden who was out all of last year. He was a number 1 corner before injury and if he recovers he can settle into the number 2 role and hopefully create an elite tandem. They let go of the weak links in Merriweather/Butler/Wilhite and new draftee Ras I'Dowling looks like a keeper also in that number 3 spot.

Their linebacking core is pretty solid with one of the best LB's in the league in Mayo. Spikes is a good run stopper and they have a few outside guys that will rotate and should do a decent job.

With the scheme change, they will mix in a ton of 4-3 looks also with Mayo on OLB and Spikes on MLB and they can afford do that because their big acquisitions this offseason are on the DLine. Andre Carter was a elite DE racking up 11 sacks before Shanahan played him at OLB in 3-4 which is completely out of position. If he can return to his former self, and from what he showed in the pre-season it looks likely, they just added a very good pass rusher on the outside. The biggest acquisition is obviously Albert Haynesworth and if, yes it's a big if, he has a few more good years left in him, him and Wilfork will be the best DT combo in the league stuffing the run, and putting tons of pressure on allowing Mayo to make even more plays on LB and we all know a good pass rush makes your secondary look good. From all accounts, Haynesworth is loving it here in NE, loves Coach B, enjoys coming to work and was quoted as saying he's ready to unleash the sleeping giant.

These are just my thoughts and if everything pans out, the Pats D could be elite and coupled with that offense could be deadly. I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree for now and see what happens.

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

See Post #85.

andarmac99

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Posted: Sep. 9, 2011 - 8:18 PM ET #89

Quote Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:

I beg to differ Andy. Maybe it's just because I'm a Pats fan, but I truly believe they are the team to beat in the AFC.

Smallish Receivers - Can't disagree with you there, but they did add Ocho Cinco who has some size and it remains to be seen if he has anything left in the tank. If he does he can bring what they're missing on the outside. Your also forgetting they have 2 elite young Tight Ends in Hernandez/Gronkowski who have size and can gain those tough yards. Welker might be small but hes a tough SOB.

Running Backs - One of the reasons for their playoff loss was a lack of running game/predictable offense. When Green Ellis was in you knew they would run and Woodhead you knew it was a pass. The Jets took advantage of this and were able to call D's based on who they saw out there. They added a big time guy in Stevan Ridley who looked amazing in the pre-season showing a mix of power, speed and ability to catch the ball and he can become the all around back this offense needs.

Secondary - With the release of Merriweather, yea they have a hole there, but Chung is a great talent and hopefully he continues to get better. McCourty is an elite corner and he'll only continue to get better also. Something people are forgetting is the return of Leigh Bodden who was out all of last year. He was a number 1 corner before injury and if he recovers he can settle into the number 2 role and hopefully create an elite tandem. They let go of the weak links in Merriweather/Butler/Wilhite and new draftee Ras I'Dowling looks like a keeper also in that number 3 spot.

Their linebacking core is pretty solid with one of the best LB's in the league in Mayo. Spikes is a good run stopper and they have a few outside guys that will rotate and should do a decent job.

With the scheme change, they will mix in a ton of 4-3 looks also with Mayo on OLB and Spikes on MLB and they can afford do that because their big acquisitions this offseason are on the DLine. Andre Carter was a elite DE racking up 11 sacks before Shanahan played him at OLB in 3-4 which is completely out of position. If he can return to his former self, and from what he showed in the pre-season it looks likely, they just added a very good pass rusher on the outside. The biggest acquisition is obviously Albert Haynesworth and if, yes it's a big if, he has a few more good years left in him, him and Wilfork will be the best DT combo in the league stuffing the run, and putting tons of pressure on allowing Mayo to make even more plays on LB and we all know a good pass rush makes your secondary look good. From all accounts, Haynesworth is loving it here in NE, loves Coach B, enjoys coming to work and was quoted as saying he's ready to unleash the sleeping giant.

These are just my thoughts and if everything pans out, the Pats D could be elite and coupled with that offense could be deadly. I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree for now and see what happens.

Great post.

Your opinion is worth more than mine here. You do make some very solid points so I guess we will have to see. The recent playoff losses big me though. Their receivers are good enough in the regular season but against a physical secondary in the playoffs I'm not sure I'm sold. I agree with you on Ridley. I saw this guy in the preseason and he's an NFL runner, knows how to get low and isn't afraid of contact.

The defense has to be better. I hope Haynesworth pays off because they need a playmaker. They have some solid players and maybe McCourty will be a playmaker but they lack playmakers. Not sure what to make of Bodden. He's coming off a major injury and I remember hm getting skinned like a cat in Cleveland and Detroit. They do have Super Bowl potential and you make a very solid argument but right now I'm just a little less enthusiastic than most.

I probably won't take Miami on Monday but do lean towards the +7 if available.

Great to see you around man.

Great post.

IgetMoney101

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Posted: Sep. 9, 2011 - 9:06 PM ET #90

Good luck this season

MistakeHitter

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Posted: Sep. 9, 2011 - 9:11 PM ET #91

Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:

At 6pm Monday, Miami will be a play at +7. Their defense and ground game should be able to stay within a TD. Great thread as always, GL this weekend.

What ground game?????? Williams and Brown are gone, its bush and nobody else. They just signed Larry Johnson for christ sake. Miami will be the worst team in the league.

glyde69

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Posted: Sep. 9, 2011 - 9:56 PM ET #92

Andy, do you have an opinion on the SF/Seattle game? My first instinct after looking at the game was PASS without really even looking much into it, but the more I look, the more I think SF might smoke these chumps.

With the lockout and limited pre-season, I don't like betting on a team Week 1 with a new coach, but supposedly Alex Smith got Harbaugh's playbook well before the lockout and worked with his receivers. The offense also fits Smith's style so that is a positive. He has some nice weapons to work with(Morgan, Vernon, Crab, Braylon, Ginn), and a couple of very capable backs for the ground game. I'm not sold on the offensive line and Houston embarrassed them a couple of weeks ago, but does Seattle have the personel to really take advantage? If there are any 49er fans that can shed some light on the SF offensive line, I would appreciate any info.

On the other side, Tavaris Jackson is learning his own new playbook(minus Smith's experience). The 49er defensive coordinator(can't think of his name) should be blitzing the shit out of these guys and no Sidney Rice really hurts. SF definitely has some holes on the defensive side, but I don't see Seattle taking advantage of it. They are obviously at a disadvantage being on the road and losing the "12th man." I look back at some of their road games towards the end of last year and they were putrid. Tampa outgained them by like 250 yards one game. SF smoked them 40-21 in another. The Saints piled 500+ total yards one game. Now they are back on the road, without Hasselbeck and starting a young unproven QB?

I feel like I got too much chalk on my card already with Houston so I'm not too keen on playing more chalk, SF at home in the 5 range doesn't look so bad.

lakers34kb

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Posted: Sep. 9, 2011 - 10:05 PM ET #93

CalBear

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Posted: Sep. 9, 2011 - 10:44 PM ET #94

To another successful year

GL buddy!

andarmac99

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Posted: Sep. 9, 2011 - 11:18 PM ET #95

Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:

I feel like I got too much chalk on my card already with Houston so I'm not too keen on playing more chalk, SF at home in the 5 range doesn't look so bad.

I don't have too strong of an opinion but I do lean SF. I think Seattle is going to be brutal this year. Their defense could be one of the worst in the league and so is their starting QB. I thought in the preseason San Fran might really suck this year but the more I look at them I don't think they will be that bad. Tough for me to lay points with them but I think they are the right side.

Look of shitty games this week. What do you think of CIN/CLE? It just seems strange to see Cleveland as such a big fav. They do have McCoy and Hillis but their receivers stink and they are without 2 offensive linemen (1 for the year). If you take out the Bengals passing game are the Bengals run game and defense looking half decent to anyone else? Then again you have to include the pass game and a rookie QB on the road in his first start.

Took Tampa Bay -1 and San Diego -8 for reasons discussed above.

Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:

I feel like I got too much chalk on my card already with Houston so I'm not too keen on playing more chalk, SF at home in the 5 range doesn't look so bad.

Took Tampa Bay -1 and San Diego -8 for reasons discussed above.

nepatriots_12

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Posted: Sep. 10, 2011 - 12:06 AM ET #96

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Great post.

Thanks buddy. Yea, they are a real wildcard team this year...depending on how those guys pan out they could be the same old Pats that get outmuscled in the playoffs by a physical team like the Jets or they could finally bring back that elite D that they had back in the day. I think the real concern with them this year will be their O-Line but I love that addition of Brian Waters. I would lay off Miami week 1 as I would wait to see how all these new acquisitions play...it's not a bad play but the game definitely has blowout potential.

Great play on Green Bay btw, didn't have the balls to play them but it was the right side for sure.

The Atlanta game is tough, I think they're the better team but Chicago is a tough team at home and I'm not sure how Atlanta will fare switching to a pass heavy offense. Pass for me.

Rams is another pass...I think the Rams could end up winning SU or get blown out. I would lean Rams though, the Eagles have a ton of great individual players but I don't think they are a great team yet and that super shaky O-Line is going to get busted throughout the year and the Rams are a team that can break through.

I love that Chargers play. I think they will dominate that division this year and are going to spank the Vikings in week 1.

Love the Broncos play also, even with the injuries. The Raiders are due for a big regression this year after losing their coach, Nnamdi and overpaying a bunch of scrubs.

Tampa is another solid play also. You said it best, you have to earn respect, it isn't given to you.

Those are just my thoughts, you have a great card and I'll be on SD/DEN with you.

Also hit up a SD/HOU 6 pt teaser big to get them under 3. I think you should look into that one, my favorite play of the week.

GL Buddy, this is my favorite thread and looking forward to this year. Nice to see Glyde back also.

glyde69

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Posted: Sep. 10, 2011 - 1:02 AM ET #97

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Look of shitty games this week. What do you think of CIN/CLE? It just seems strange to see Cleveland as such a big fav. They do have McCoy and Hillis but their receivers stink and they are without 2 offensive linemen (1 for the year). If you take out the Bengals passing game are the Bengals run game and defense looking half decent to anyone else? Then again you have to include the pass game and a rookie QB on the road in his first start.

Tough game. I think it is gonna be a low scoring 13-10 absolute slugfest. It is easy to look at the Bengals and think DOGSHIT, but I believe they will be a scrappy little squad this year. They should be able to run the ball(assuming Dalton isn't completely overwhelmed as a starter, is useless, and teams stack 8 in the box all game), the WRs aren't A guys but can make plays(Caldwell, Quan, Grisham, Shipley), and their defense isn't bad at all. In fact, the defense might be pretty good with some tough young LB along with two of the better CB in the league(hall, clements). Zimmer should have these guys ready to go.

The Browns are a team that I think are gonna come out and look to beat their opponents into the ground. It hurts that they are in such a physical division(1/4 of their games against Balt/Pitt is a load), and to the naked eye they get an "easy" start to the season with Cincinnati. Cincy has a load of problems, but they are feisty and their defense might give Cleveland bigger problems than people think. Cleveland might just be surprised at how physical Cincy is.

So I'm thinking a slugfest with lots of 3 and outs, lots of jostling for field position, lots of FGs. I don't trust Cleveland to cover the large number, but at the same time, I can't trust Dalton making his first NFL start on the road with a short camp as his only NFL experience. I would say UNDER, but we all know what happens when I play a total.

PajamaBoys

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Posted: Sep. 10, 2011 - 2:15 AM ET #98

You mentioned some Survivor plays in an earlier post. do you still like Houston as a potential play even if Fosters sits out? Hou seems to be the right play, but all the sudden variables make it a little scary.

Great thread. Best of luck.