NFL Week 1

I haven't looked too much at the Week 1 regular season card yet but one game stuck out to me a couple weeks ago so I bet it and after two preseason games I have seen enough to fire more.


Denver pk

I think this is a strong spot for the Broncos at home on MNF to open the year for a number of reasons. First of all they are coming off of a terrible year and now get a primetime home game for the first time in a couple of seasons. They also come in with a fresh and rejuvenated approach under new head coach John Fox. Additionally they get to play an Oakland team that I don't think is going to be nearly as good as they were last year. This is also an Oakland team that beat the piss put of Denver last season 39-23 in Oakland and pasted them 59-14 right here in Denver. This is a strong revenge spot for the home squad with a new life off of last year's beatings against a division rival.

The above is more the motivational angle which I feel is strong but on paper I think the Broncos are much improved as well. Orton was actually playing well last year and was very under the radar before a bad last two games in a bad environment. I think he's a solid NFL QB who can make some throws and win some games. It is also big that so many of the players backed him and said Orton was their guy when the fans were begging for Tebow to start camp. I like how the Broncos front office didn't screw around and came out early and named him their guy, it shows trust and confidence. The running game should be good for Denver as a young offensive line comes together and Moreno (who I think might breakout this year) teams up with a very capable backup in McGahee.

The Broncos problem has been their defense but I get the feeling this unit is going to be much improved in 2011. For starters they have John Fox now who is a defense first guy. Secondly they have shifted to a 4-3 which puts guys like Ayers and Williams back into better positions. No returning player who missed most of last year in the NFL may mean more to a unit than Elvis Dumervil does returning to this defense. They didn't just miss his 17 sacks last year but they dearly missed his relentless pressure and non-stop motor, he is reportedly in the best shape of his life and should be a big pass rushing force. Denver drafted Von Miller 2nd overall and the camps reports said he has been unblockable and from what I've seen in the preseason he should be very good. The secondary had a lot of injuries last year and with vets Champ Bailey, Andre Goodman, and Brian Dawkins to go along with rookie Rahim Moore who Denver is high on I think this is a solid unit especially with a much improved front 7 in front of them.

I'm not big on Oakland this year. Jason Campbell on the road in this price range is an ugly thought. Another ugly thought is this defense without Asomugha back there, an entire side of the field will be opened up without him and I get the feeling this defense is going to be bad. I don't like the coaching change in Oakland either after the Raiders went 6-0 in the division last year and had their best season in a long time they went and fired him and several players were not happy about it.

Denver should be far more motivated, and quite frankly I think they are better on both sides of the ball.


Hoping to a good season.

i like it gl

very happy i locked it in at -1 yesterday night after watching how bad the raiders were live in SF and Campbell got banged up

it's at -2.5 now and might climb

GO BRONCOS

GL - great write up

Like it, Andy. 

Was just looking at that game yesterday, and couldn't figure out why the line was PK/-1ish.  Should be a stone cold -3, IMO.

i was lookin at this myself....oak aint got nuffin....

You watching this Giant-Bear game? 

I was trying to focus mainly on the Giant D-line/Chicago O-line matchup, but didn't really see much. Giants got the best of the matchup(like I expected), but were not dominant by any means. One thing about the game that jumped out at me was the excellent NY special teams play.  Bears usually excel in that category, so to see the Giants run circles around them showed me something.  I gotta wonder if hiring Izzo as the assistant ST coach had anything to do with that, but the Giants were sharp in every aspect.

Was hoping to see a little more Rosenfels tonight.  I've been the biggest fan of the guy for the longest time, and I STILL think he is better than half the stiffs starting in this league.  I wonder if seeing so much Carr is because Sage has the 2 spot locked up or if he is in the doghouse.  Either way, I think the guy is ultimately gonna be remembered as the guy who fucked up HORRIBLY a few years back against the Colts in that 4th quarter collapse, rather than the promising talent who never got a real shot.  Or maybe I'm a flaming person with a love affair for a perennial backup?  Who knows? 

Fuck man.  3 more weeks!

Glyde, while you may be a flaming person, we agree on Rosenfels.  Guy's got some game.  Made me when he was at ISU.  How is it some guys get shot after shot and some guys can't buy a break.  Sean Hill comes fits into the same category.

By the way, Andy, thanks for the Denver headsup.  I bet them at pk as soon as I read this thread.  You moved the line obviously.

Yeah if the Giants punter can stop with the fuckup kicks in big spots and they can get some good returns it could go a long ways. I really hate this new kickoff rule. If they are so concerned with making the players wear panties then why not start every possession at the 20 yard line, why even both kicking off? This rule obviously hurts the Bears but on the flip side I really think it helps Baltimore. Their kickoff guy boomed touchbacks at a crazy rate last year and he's probably going to hit 90% this season. I don't have the exact numbers but teams probably get half of their drives off of kickoffs and against Baltimore if 90% of the time on those drives opponents start at their own 20 it is really tough to go 80 yards on that defense.

I think Rosenfels was sick tonight so he didn't play. Man I remember that game like yesterday. The idiot tried to jump over a guy late in the 4th instead of sliding and coughed up the ball which the Colts returned for a TD. It was classic Texans football.

Can't wait for the regular season bro. This is the first year I've really gotten into the preseason and as far as motivation and stuff it's really not a whole lot different from the regular season.

Agree 100% Skip. 

Yeah Andy, I remember that game as well.  If my memory is on, I had the Texans at a good line as Schaub was a late scratch and the line moved in my favor(as I said, I love Roselfels and jumped right on board at like 1240pm when I heard Schaub was not playing) and they covered for "me," but I remember a whole lot of angry people who were stuck with the "Schaub" point spread and were PISSED.  I felt so bad because all it took were two stupid plays(the pick and the fumble) and the poor guy may be still feeling the repercussions of that game.

Christ, I agree with you on the new kickoff rule.  I think it's pretty lame that Special Teams in the eyes of the NFL brass is "expendable" to help avoid injuries.  You kidding me?  Just deleting kickoff returns like that?  I know offenses have overpowered defenses of late, and I would sort of understand it if the move was made to even things out, but to help "avoid" injuries?  That sucks. 

Another thing that annoys me, is all the years of kicking from the 30 yard line and it seemed like 90% of the kickers out there were lucky to get the ball to the fucking 10.  Now the NFL moves it back 5 little yards, and every kick goes 10 yards into the EZ.  What the hell?

Shit, Giants lost Terrell Thomas for the year(torn ACL).  That hurts.

Great write up, will be following you for the season! Best of luck!

Hey, Andarmac. Good to see you around and still posting. Will probably bounce some thoughts off you this season.

It's square, but I shopped around and already laid a FG with the Giants in week 1. My favorite play, FWIW. Only thing I've locked in thus far. 

I really like the Giants too.  Like you say, it's pretty square(road fav/division rivals/etc), but square/sucker call it what you want, I  have a feeling the Giants come out and SQUASH the Redskins.  Only thing is it is a little too early in the preseason for me to feel comfortable wagering(too much can happen in next three weeks, imo), so I'll probably be stuck laying 4-4.5 when it's all said and done, but I still like the bet even at that line. Good job grabbing 3 while it's still available.  I probably will wish I did the same in a few weeks, but I've learned to be more cautious early in a season.  Better safe than sorry.

Thanks for sharing your picks, I really enjoy reading your reasoning. I'm also on Denver and completely agree with what you write. How do you feel about Washington after tonights game? I think they are very underated and should win at home against the Giants. I liked how aggressive the defense was. The offense looked pretty sharp. I took a big bet at +3.5 -110

I'm also thinking St Louis is a good bet week1. Any opinion there? St Louis will be good this year imo and Philly is over hyped.

Anyway, appreciate your posts and please keep it up

Good Luck this football season

I have Washington Under season wins but must admit they have looked very good in the preseason. Maybe they are taking it more seriously than others or maybe they really have improved. I bet Dallas against Washington last year to only watch them screw it up and the Giants are a team that is capable of doing the same. I really have no opinion on this one either way, glyde and Sharp_Action probably have better stuff.

I watched the entire Eagles game tonight against the Browns and I have to say that Micheal Vick will not make it through the season. The offensive line looks terrible. Vick was harassed the whole game in Pittsburgh last week and that's a great defense but against the Browns it was the same story. Cleveland may have only got two sacks but Vick was running all game long and took a pounding worse than the end of last year when he was banged up. They are cycling players in and out at C and RT. They may actually start a rookie C and they for sure are starting a rookie RG. This line is going to need time to build continuity. DeSean Jackson held out of camp and he and Vick looked like they were way off. Maclin has just started practicing and it will take a while for him to get back into this offense. I'm not sold on the middle of the Eagles defense either. This team has a lot of shit they need to get together, most will look at the big free agents and dazzling skill position players but there are holes here. St. Louis is well worth a look IMO and I will probably be on them.

I think Skins cover week 1- good secondary with Hall-Wilson-Landry if healthy-Otogwe, Giants will have Ross-Webster as CBs, no Steve Smith, Hightower can run and with brutal DBs Shanahan can run some nice short passes to handle the potent Giants pass rush- plus Skins r tough at home with a new found running and defensive game

I locked in the Skins +3.5 (-121) to win 7.5 units today- I think they are prime for the upset and Shanahan has handled the erratic Jake Plummer and had success so Grossman shouldn't be too bad

Yes, Vick will be in trouble. That St Louis D will be pretty good I think. Gotta admit that I really don't like that you dont like Washington, but the odds keep going closer to +3 on Pinnacle so at least that is a good sign

  

Atlanta -2

I will probably only bet two or three road favorites the entire season but I think the Falcons are quite a bit better than the Bears and it is not being accurately reflected in this price. I don't see this line going anywhere but up to 3 either.

If anyone read my thoughts last year on Atlanta and Chicago I thought both of those teams were the two biggest frauds in the NFL. However I see the Falcons as a team that improved quite a bit during the off season while the Bears did not.

I thought the Falcons were a fraud last year because their defense was prone to giving up big plays and there offense was very, very vanilla. Their gameplan was to pound the run game and have Ryan throw short to White and Gonzalez to extend drives. They were exposed big time by a Green Bay team that could move the ball with big chunks against their defense and force the offense out of it's comfort zone and to throw down the field. Atlanta went out and brought in a big time receiver in Julio Jones who I think will be a stud. They are also making a concerted effort to get the ball to Harry Douglas who is a real downfield threat with his speed. So far in 5 quarters of action with the 1st team offense in the preseason Douglas has been targeted 16 times and has 8 catches for 165 yards and 2 touchdowns. Now suddenly a team that has said they want to be more explosive has a receiver corps of White, Jones, Douglas, and Gonzalez which looks good. They still also have Micheal Turner and good depth behind him with Snelling and a guy I think can be a sleeper in Jaquizz Rodgers who is looking like the guy they always though Jerious Norwood would be.

Defenisvely Atlanta should also be improved. They finally got a guy to play opposite of John Abraham when they brought in Ray Edwards. They should also get a big boost from Peria Jerry and Sean Weatherspoon. Jerry was a 1st round pick in 2009 but shredded his knee. He played sparingly last year coming off the surgery but has reportedly looked great this year in camp and should be a good depth guy early before he takes over the starting job. Weatherspoon was a 1st round pick in 2010 and was looking great through the first 3 weeks as a starter last year with 24 tackles and a sack as an OLB before he got hurt and missed 5 of the next 6 and never fully rebounded as he was used as a backup once he returned. With these two former 1st round picks healthy and Edwards coming in this defense should improve.

While I think Atlanta has improved I can't say the same for the Bears. Their offensive line was a mess last year and they begin this season with 4 guys starting in new positions. The new offense under Martz was a big bust as the Bears finished 30th in total offense. I don't trust Jay Cutler at all as the only thing he's proven is that he's soft, can't handle pressure or adversity, and is an average QB at best. The Bears were terrible in the red zone last year and it's hard to see how they improve as they lost Greg Olsen (sorry folks Roy Williams isn't the answer). This is not a good offensive football team.

I think the defense is overrated too. They are a year older and really beat up the bad teams last year. Chicago played only 8 of their 18 games last year against teams with a pulse that ranked in the top half of the league offensively and in those games they gave up 284, 410, 379, 372, 398, 475, 393, and 356 yards for an average of 383.4 yards per game. Good defenses don't do that even against teams that are trailing for a majority of the game. Big. Time. Fraud.

The Bears usually have a big edge of their opponents because of special teams but these teams are about even in that department. Chicago was 2nd in the NFL in kickoff returns last year but the Falcons were 1st. The Bears were 1st in punt returns but the Falcons weren't far behind at #5. Atlanta is an 11-12 win team. The Bears are a 7-8 win team.