Posted:
#51
GL Andy! Great write up as usual!NFL Week 1
Posted:
#53
Really starting to get the itch now and glad football is back.
Sticking with initial bets of Denver pk, Atlanta -2, and St. Louis +4.5. I haven't seen anything to make me consider getting out of those bets. Although I believe DJ Williams is OUT for Denver and Atlanta's starting center is also OUT.
Now that the preseason it gives a great chance to go back over the card and see things that might have been missed on the first pass. I have found 3 games that I think are cheap lines on the favs: Green Bay, Tampa Bay, and San Diego. I will probably be on all three. I don't have the time to go on long rants like the earlier writeups so here's some quickies:
Green Bay: Best shot in a long while for a Super Bowl repeat. Most talented team in the league. Rodgers is the best QB. Someone tell me how the Saints get a stop? Will Smith is out and I don't see a pass rush anywhere. Rodgers is the best in the league against the blitz so forget that. Saints can move the ball but I think the Packers defense can get some stops. Don't pay any attention to what they did defensively in the preseason they never show any looks at all and have openly admitted that fact. Many of the horses didn't even play much preseason on that unit. Green Bay is better than last year and with a better defense and QB they should win by at a TD.
Tampa: Lions are the most hyped team coming into the year and I don't like this spot. Everyone saw them roll it up on the Pats in the preseason and Stafford this, Suh that, but this team has holes. I don't care how good the D-line is that secondary is awful. Not sold on the Lions offensive line either and I think they struggle to run. Bucs come off a surprising 10-6 but seem underrated to me. They are a young, solid squad looking for respect. Not sure about the Lions outside in the humidity on grass either. Not often you get a 10-6 team at home catching this little respect that IMO anyway is probably better than Detroit right now. Lions have proven nothing, Week 2 at home against KC is a much better spot to fire on Detroit.
San Diego: See mtbaker's writeup I couldn't have said it any better. I love this team this year and in Week 1. Too many people are looking at the Chargers past struggles and looking for an easy out taking the Vikes. It's not very easy laying big wood with this team early in the year and that's why it is probably the right play. Forget the past it doesn't mean jack. I truly believe the Chargers have a real sense of urgency this year, I could be wrong but missing the playoffs last season was a major wake up call. Anyone ever heard of the following players: Bryan Robison, Remi Ayodele, Letroy Guion, Erin Henderson, Jamarca Sanford, and Hasain Abdullah? Yeah neither have I yet they make up over half of Minnesota's starting defense. This is a totally different unit. Kevin Williams is out and Pat Williams and Ray Edwards are gone not only are they tough losses but they put a hurt on Jared Allen who will probably be double-teamed every play. The Chargers have a A+ offense and finally have all of their horses together with Jackson, Floyd, and Gates. They return their entire offensive line and have a real nice RB combo with Mathews and Tolbert. Rivers will prove he's an elite QB this year. San Diego may not punt the entire game. The Chargers have had a Top 5 scoring offense every year Rivers has started and the last two years they haven't even been Top 10 in the redzone. With the 6'5 Jackson and Floyd, and 6'4 Gates to go along with a pounder in Tolbert they have the makings of a great red zone offense. I'd be very surprised if San Diego didn't drop 30+ here.
I will post the lines I get on the last 3. Gonna wait to see if I can get any better than what is currently available.
Sticking with initial bets of Denver pk, Atlanta -2, and St. Louis +4.5. I haven't seen anything to make me consider getting out of those bets. Although I believe DJ Williams is OUT for Denver and Atlanta's starting center is also OUT.
Now that the preseason it gives a great chance to go back over the card and see things that might have been missed on the first pass. I have found 3 games that I think are cheap lines on the favs: Green Bay, Tampa Bay, and San Diego. I will probably be on all three. I don't have the time to go on long rants like the earlier writeups so here's some quickies:
Green Bay: Best shot in a long while for a Super Bowl repeat. Most talented team in the league. Rodgers is the best QB. Someone tell me how the Saints get a stop? Will Smith is out and I don't see a pass rush anywhere. Rodgers is the best in the league against the blitz so forget that. Saints can move the ball but I think the Packers defense can get some stops. Don't pay any attention to what they did defensively in the preseason they never show any looks at all and have openly admitted that fact. Many of the horses didn't even play much preseason on that unit. Green Bay is better than last year and with a better defense and QB they should win by at a TD.
Tampa: Lions are the most hyped team coming into the year and I don't like this spot. Everyone saw them roll it up on the Pats in the preseason and Stafford this, Suh that, but this team has holes. I don't care how good the D-line is that secondary is awful. Not sold on the Lions offensive line either and I think they struggle to run. Bucs come off a surprising 10-6 but seem underrated to me. They are a young, solid squad looking for respect. Not sure about the Lions outside in the humidity on grass either. Not often you get a 10-6 team at home catching this little respect that IMO anyway is probably better than Detroit right now. Lions have proven nothing, Week 2 at home against KC is a much better spot to fire on Detroit.
San Diego: See mtbaker's writeup I couldn't have said it any better. I love this team this year and in Week 1. Too many people are looking at the Chargers past struggles and looking for an easy out taking the Vikes. It's not very easy laying big wood with this team early in the year and that's why it is probably the right play. Forget the past it doesn't mean jack. I truly believe the Chargers have a real sense of urgency this year, I could be wrong but missing the playoffs last season was a major wake up call. Anyone ever heard of the following players: Bryan Robison, Remi Ayodele, Letroy Guion, Erin Henderson, Jamarca Sanford, and Hasain Abdullah? Yeah neither have I yet they make up over half of Minnesota's starting defense. This is a totally different unit. Kevin Williams is out and Pat Williams and Ray Edwards are gone not only are they tough losses but they put a hurt on Jared Allen who will probably be double-teamed every play. The Chargers have a A+ offense and finally have all of their horses together with Jackson, Floyd, and Gates. They return their entire offensive line and have a real nice RB combo with Mathews and Tolbert. Rivers will prove he's an elite QB this year. San Diego may not punt the entire game. The Chargers have had a Top 5 scoring offense every year Rivers has started and the last two years they haven't even been Top 10 in the redzone. With the 6'5 Jackson and Floyd, and 6'4 Gates to go along with a pounder in Tolbert they have the makings of a great red zone offense. I'd be very surprised if San Diego didn't drop 30+ here.
I will post the lines I get on the last 3. Gonna wait to see if I can get any better than what is currently available.
Posted:
#54
Another note on the Chargers:
I don't get why people are expecting McNabb to fit in with the Vikes. He's done. They got him for a bag of peanuts to keep the seat warm for Ponder. He sucked in Washington with crappy receivers and the ones he has here aren't any better. Shaincoe is a threat but in a new offense with a new QB it is a steep learning curve having not played a single down of real football all preseason like he's done. San Diego should plug the box to contain Peterson and let McNabb make some mistakes down the field against what will be a good secondary.
I don't get why people are expecting McNabb to fit in with the Vikes. He's done. They got him for a bag of peanuts to keep the seat warm for Ponder. He sucked in Washington with crappy receivers and the ones he has here aren't any better. Shaincoe is a threat but in a new offense with a new QB it is a steep learning curve having not played a single down of real football all preseason like he's done. San Diego should plug the box to contain Peterson and let McNabb make some mistakes down the field against what will be a good secondary.
Posted:
#57
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
Another note on the Chargers:
I don't get why people are expecting McNabb to fit in with the Vikes. He's done. They got him for a bag of peanuts to keep the seat warm for Ponder. He sucked in Washington with crappy receivers and the ones he has here aren't any better. Shaincoe is a threat but in a new offense with a new QB it is a steep learning curve having not played a single down of real football all preseason like he's done. San Diego should plug the box to contain Peterson and let McNabb make some mistakes down the field against what will be a good secondary.
Another note on the Chargers:
I don't get why people are expecting McNabb to fit in with the Vikes. He's done. They got him for a bag of peanuts to keep the seat warm for Ponder. He sucked in Washington with crappy receivers and the ones he has here aren't any better. Shaincoe is a threat but in a new offense with a new QB it is a steep learning curve having not played a single down of real football all preseason like he's done. San Diego should plug the box to contain Peterson and let McNabb make some mistakes down the field against what will be a good secondary.
came to a similar conclusion this afternoon. GL
Posted:
#63
I find the line movement pretty interesting in the Falcons bears game it moved all the way from pick to 3 and they are on the road.
I have to say I originally loved the bears and I guess I still do but it is very hard to ignore such a line movement. Scares me to death but I like the prospect of getting a FG rather than no points but I expected them to be a 3 point favorite -
Same thing on Denver however they are at home - was a pick now its 3 I originally loved Denver as a pick so I am inclined to play denver at home - 3 even more..
But back to ATL I can not see why the line would move so big
No heavy injuries or anything like that that I am aware of
Why do you think this line moved so much ardy?
Bears were one drive away from the Super Bowl and hosted the NFC Championship game. Why are they a dog at home - No respect is the only thing I can think of, and the loss of kick returns which is big for them no doubt about that.
Posted:
#65
Quote Originally Posted by Gold_Rush:
I find the line movement pretty interesting in the Falcons bears game it moved all the way from pick to 3 and they are on the road.
I find the line movement pretty interesting in the Falcons bears game it moved all the way from pick to 3 and they are on the road.
I have to say I originally loved the bears and I guess I still do but it is very hard to ignore such a line movement. Scares me to death but I like the prospect of getting a FG rather than no points but I expected them to be a 3 point favorite -
Same thing on Denver however they are at home - was a pick now its 3 I originally loved Denver as a pick so I am inclined to play denver at home - 3 even more..
But back to ATL I can not see why the line would move so big
No heavy injuries or anything like that that I am aware of
Why do you think this line moved so much ardy?
Bears were one drive away from the Super Bowl and hosted the NFC Championship game. Why are they a dog at home - No respect is the only thing I can think of, and the loss of kick returns which is big for them no doubt about that.
Money has most likely moved the line. I'm not sure how many will be on the Bears this week.
I just don't think they are very good. They caught every break in the book last year. The beat Detroit Week 1 when they should have lost. Week 3 the Packers dropped 380 yards on them but committed 18 penalties and the Bears still needed 2 FG's in the last 4 minutes to escape with the win. They really only had two wins all year against a good team that I can say they were the better team. Their defense was torched against anybody with any semblance of an offense and they got to host a 7-9 Seahawk team in the playoffs off an extremely emotional game. It was a fortunate ride to say the least. Their offense isn't any good, they still have concerns on the offensive line, the defense is a year older, Briggs is already requesting a trade. I just don't see anything to like. Atlanta won't win 13 games again this year but they will be better than last year and they are better than the Bears.
Just my .02.
Posted:
#66
Green Bay -4
Most people backing the Saints say this is a coinflip game but I don't really see it. Green Bay is better and this offense is going to be exceedingly difficult to stop when they come focused, healthy, and prepared to play which I believe they will tomorrow night. Rumors swirling that the Pack will be adding a hurry-up no huddle element to their offense which will be exciting to watch. I don't think the Saints have the horses to stop them, they will need to force some turnovers. Green Bay has the better defense and I'm not saying they contain Brees but I think they have a couple more stops in them than the Saints defense does. Lance Moore out too is a tough loss he's their #2 receiver and Brees' go to guy on 3rd down.
Most people backing the Saints say this is a coinflip game but I don't really see it. Green Bay is better and this offense is going to be exceedingly difficult to stop when they come focused, healthy, and prepared to play which I believe they will tomorrow night. Rumors swirling that the Pack will be adding a hurry-up no huddle element to their offense which will be exciting to watch. I don't think the Saints have the horses to stop them, they will need to force some turnovers. Green Bay has the better defense and I'm not saying they contain Brees but I think they have a couple more stops in them than the Saints defense does. Lance Moore out too is a tough loss he's their #2 receiver and Brees' go to guy on 3rd down.
Posted:
#67
Well you have a point about any team with a semblance of offense beat them, even the Redskins beat them. With a lil help from my boy Hall and his 4 picks - one for a score.. Skins also beat the Packers,
sorry I digress.. but an interesting side note for my skins..
I have to admit to you, I was hoping the skins would have gotten Cutler but it wasnt meant to be.
He did take the bears to the Championship game in his 1st year
and had he not gotten hurt in that game, well who knows .
anyway, good luck bud week 1
Posted:
#69
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
Green Bay -4
Most people backing the Saints say this is a coinflip game but I don't really see it. Green Bay is better and this offense is going to be exceedingly difficult to stop when they come focused, healthy, and prepared to play which I believe they will tomorrow night. Rumors swirling that the Pack will be adding a hurry-up no huddle element to their offense which will be exciting to watch. I don't think the Saints have the horses to stop them, they will need to force some turnovers. Green Bay has the better defense and I'm not saying they contain Brees but I think they have a couple more stops in them than the Saints defense does. Lance Moore out too is a tough loss he's their #2 receiver and Brees' go to guy on 3rd down.
Green Bay -4
Most people backing the Saints say this is a coinflip game but I don't really see it. Green Bay is better and this offense is going to be exceedingly difficult to stop when they come focused, healthy, and prepared to play which I believe they will tomorrow night. Rumors swirling that the Pack will be adding a hurry-up no huddle element to their offense which will be exciting to watch. I don't think the Saints have the horses to stop them, they will need to force some turnovers. Green Bay has the better defense and I'm not saying they contain Brees but I think they have a couple more stops in them than the Saints defense does. Lance Moore out too is a tough loss he's their #2 receiver and Brees' go to guy on 3rd down.
Posted:
#70
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
Really starting to get the itch now and glad football is back.
Sticking with initial bets of Denver pk, Atlanta -2, and St. Louis +4.5. I haven't seen anything to make me consider getting out of those bets. Although I believe DJ Williams is OUT for Denver and Atlanta's starting center is also OUT.
Now that the preseason it gives a great chance to go back over the card and see things that might have been missed on the first pass. I have found 3 games that I think are cheap lines on the favs: Green Bay, Tampa Bay, and San Diego. I will probably be on all three. I don't have the time to go on long rants like the earlier writeups so here's some quickies:
Green Bay: Best shot in a long while for a Super Bowl repeat. Most talented team in the league. Rodgers is the best QB. Someone tell me how the Saints get a stop? Will Smith is out and I don't see a pass rush anywhere. Rodgers is the best in the league against the blitz so forget that. Saints can move the ball but I think the Packers defense can get some stops. Don't pay any attention to what they did defensively in the preseason they never show any looks at all and have openly admitted that fact. Many of the horses didn't even play much preseason on that unit. Green Bay is better than last year and with a better defense and QB they should win by at a TD.
Tampa: Lions are the most hyped team coming into the year and I don't like this spot. Everyone saw them roll it up on the Pats in the preseason and Stafford this, Suh that, but this team has holes. I don't care how good the D-line is that secondary is awful. Not sold on the Lions offensive line either and I think they struggle to run. Bucs come off a surprising 10-6 but seem underrated to me. They are a young, solid squad looking for respect. Not sure about the Lions outside in the humidity on grass either. Not often you get a 10-6 team at home catching this little respect that IMO anyway is probably better than Detroit right now. Lions have proven nothing, Week 2 at home against KC is a much better spot to fire on Detroit.
San Diego: See mtbaker's writeup I couldn't have said it any better. I love this team this year and in Week 1. Too many people are looking at the Chargers past struggles and looking for an easy out taking the Vikes. It's not very easy laying big wood with this team early in the year and that's why it is probably the right play. Forget the past it doesn't mean jack. I truly believe the Chargers have a real sense of urgency this year, I could be wrong but missing the playoffs last season was a major wake up call. Anyone ever heard of the following players: Bryan Robison, Remi Ayodele, Letroy Guion, Erin Henderson, Jamarca Sanford, and Hasain Abdullah? Yeah neither have I yet they make up over half of Minnesota's starting defense. This is a totally different unit. Kevin Williams is out and Pat Williams and Ray Edwards are gone not only are they tough losses but they put a hurt on Jared Allen who will probably be double-teamed every play. The Chargers have a A+ offense and finally have all of their horses together with Jackson, Floyd, and Gates. They return their entire offensive line and have a real nice RB combo with Mathews and Tolbert. Rivers will prove he's an elite QB this year. San Diego may not punt the entire game. The Chargers have had a Top 5 scoring offense every year Rivers has started and the last two years they haven't even been Top 10 in the redzone. With the 6'5 Jackson and Floyd, and 6'4 Gates to go along with a pounder in Tolbert they have the makings of a great red zone offense. I'd be very surprised if San Diego didn't drop 30+ here.
I will post the lines I get on the last 3. Gonna wait to see if I can get any better than what is currently available.
Really starting to get the itch now and glad football is back.
Sticking with initial bets of Denver pk, Atlanta -2, and St. Louis +4.5. I haven't seen anything to make me consider getting out of those bets. Although I believe DJ Williams is OUT for Denver and Atlanta's starting center is also OUT.
Now that the preseason it gives a great chance to go back over the card and see things that might have been missed on the first pass. I have found 3 games that I think are cheap lines on the favs: Green Bay, Tampa Bay, and San Diego. I will probably be on all three. I don't have the time to go on long rants like the earlier writeups so here's some quickies:
Green Bay: Best shot in a long while for a Super Bowl repeat. Most talented team in the league. Rodgers is the best QB. Someone tell me how the Saints get a stop? Will Smith is out and I don't see a pass rush anywhere. Rodgers is the best in the league against the blitz so forget that. Saints can move the ball but I think the Packers defense can get some stops. Don't pay any attention to what they did defensively in the preseason they never show any looks at all and have openly admitted that fact. Many of the horses didn't even play much preseason on that unit. Green Bay is better than last year and with a better defense and QB they should win by at a TD.
Tampa: Lions are the most hyped team coming into the year and I don't like this spot. Everyone saw them roll it up on the Pats in the preseason and Stafford this, Suh that, but this team has holes. I don't care how good the D-line is that secondary is awful. Not sold on the Lions offensive line either and I think they struggle to run. Bucs come off a surprising 10-6 but seem underrated to me. They are a young, solid squad looking for respect. Not sure about the Lions outside in the humidity on grass either. Not often you get a 10-6 team at home catching this little respect that IMO anyway is probably better than Detroit right now. Lions have proven nothing, Week 2 at home against KC is a much better spot to fire on Detroit.
San Diego: See mtbaker's writeup I couldn't have said it any better. I love this team this year and in Week 1. Too many people are looking at the Chargers past struggles and looking for an easy out taking the Vikes. It's not very easy laying big wood with this team early in the year and that's why it is probably the right play. Forget the past it doesn't mean jack. I truly believe the Chargers have a real sense of urgency this year, I could be wrong but missing the playoffs last season was a major wake up call. Anyone ever heard of the following players: Bryan Robison, Remi Ayodele, Letroy Guion, Erin Henderson, Jamarca Sanford, and Hasain Abdullah? Yeah neither have I yet they make up over half of Minnesota's starting defense. This is a totally different unit. Kevin Williams is out and Pat Williams and Ray Edwards are gone not only are they tough losses but they put a hurt on Jared Allen who will probably be double-teamed every play. The Chargers have a A+ offense and finally have all of their horses together with Jackson, Floyd, and Gates. They return their entire offensive line and have a real nice RB combo with Mathews and Tolbert. Rivers will prove he's an elite QB this year. San Diego may not punt the entire game. The Chargers have had a Top 5 scoring offense every year Rivers has started and the last two years they haven't even been Top 10 in the redzone. With the 6'5 Jackson and Floyd, and 6'4 Gates to go along with a pounder in Tolbert they have the makings of a great red zone offense. I'd be very surprised if San Diego didn't drop 30+ here.
I will post the lines I get on the last 3. Gonna wait to see if I can get any better than what is currently available.
Like the picks Andy, although I can't bring myself to lay that many points with SD due to the boat load of cash they lost me last season early on. Need to see if they truly got their head out their asses. Looks like we are opposite on the Eagles/Rams but I am with you on rest. I also tailed Glyde on Pitt.
Eagles -4.5
Packers -4.5
TB -1.5
Falcons -3
Pitt +2.5
GL to all
Good question.
Posted:
#74
Andy, I agree with you on your Lions assessment. Something in my gut tells me Tampa is the play here, and it is nice how that line keeps dropping. I'm not sure if I am gonna fire, and I'm sure I will regret it if I don't go with them.
I was talking to my grandpa yesterday. He is in his 80s and the last few years he has become obsessed with sports. He watches ESPN all day long and has a crew of old folk he hangs with at Shoprite that talk sports all day, and that whole crew are the epitomy of the term "square." My grandpa is the ringleader. There's Colostomy Bag Jack. There's Former NFL Dallas Cowboy Mike(dude is HUGE). There's Racist Tim and Tourettes Joe. What a crew of sports fans. Anyway, he calls me yesterday and before I can even say "hello," he is saying, "Boy, you won't guess who I think is gonna be the surprise team this year. It's the Lions. They have some talent on the offense and that Stafford can throw. And the defensive line? Suh is all pro and they just showed on ESPN how they brutalized the Patriot offensive line a few weeks ago and chased Brady around. I've been talking with my friends and we all think Detroit is the team."
Just hearing that confirms the Lions 8-8 season for me. As for Week 1, I'm just not confident enough in Tampa to make the move. They are one of those teams where I'm gonna have to see them in action a few weeks before I truly get a gauge on Freeman, the OL, and most importantly the defense. Probably gonna pass, but wouldn't be surprised if TB comes out and punches the Lions in the mouth.
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