• No. 1 seeds from the AFC (Chiefs) are 14-5 SU and 10-9 ATS. No. 1
seeds from the NFC (Packers) are 17-9 SU and 13-12-1 ATS.
• Away teams coming off a Divisional Round away game (Buccaneers)
are 12-28 SU and 16-24 ATS. These same teams are 4-14 SU and 5-13
ATS when also coming off a Wild Card Round away win.
• Teams who won 7 or fewer games last season (Buccaneers) are 2-9
SU and 3-8 ATS since 2005.
The last time the Bills appeared in a Championship Game they
defeated the Kansas City Chiefs, 30-13. It marked 4 consecutive
Championship Rounds wins by Buffalo in as many years.
• Teams seeking revenge who scored more than 30 points in their last
game (Packers) are 14-20 SU and 12-21-1 ATS.
• Teams off BB wins who allowed 6 or fewer points in their last game
(Bills) are 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS.
What to watch for: Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes says he has cleared concussion protocol and is set to play on Sunday, a huge boost to the Kansas City offense. But the Chiefs' run game will also be something to keep an eye on. Kansas City rushed for a season-high 245 yards against Buffalo in Week 6, when the Bills played their safeties deep on many snaps and were determined not to let Tyreek Hill and other receivers beat them deep. They will certainly change strategies this time, but at what cost? The Chiefs got just one pass play of more than 22 yards against the Bills the last time around. Can the Bills effectively slow the Chiefs' running game while still limiting the number of big pass plays? -- Adam Teicher
Bold prediction: Bills quarterback Josh Allen will surpass 350 passing yards and wide receiver Stefon Diggs will turn in his third straight game with 100 receiving yards and a touchdown. And a little bolder, the Bills will not only win but also thoroughly outpace the Chiefs in their own backyard, punching Buffalo's first ticket to the Super Bowl since the 1993 season. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to know: The Bills have dropped back to pass 73% of the time this postseason, and only one team has ever reached a conference title game passing more often -- the 2015 Patriots (83%), who lost in the AFC Championship Game that season. Buffalo won last week with just 32 rushing yards -- the fourth fewest ever in a playoff win, per the Elias Sports Bureau -- and Allen currently leads the team on the ground with 57 yards over two postseason games. The Bills averaged 64.0 rushing yards per game this season, fewer than all but one team to ever reach the Super Bowl; the 1999 Rams averaged 41.0.
The under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams, is 30-12 in the Bills’ last 42 games as a road underdog and is 5-2 in their last seven games played in the month of January. On the other side, the under is 4-1 in the Chiefs’ last five games as a home favorite, is 7-3 in their last 10 games versus a team with a winning record and is 5-2 in their last seven games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. By A.Rome
The road team is 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 meetings between these two teams while the Bills have covered in five of their last six games at Arrowhead. The Bills are also 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 games overall, is 4-0 against the number in their last four road games and is 8-1 at the betting window in their last nine games coming off a win. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are 1-8 against the spread in their last nine games overall, are 1-7 against the number in their last eight games as a favorite and are winless ATS in their last four games as a home favorite. By A.ROME BUFF+3
The home team is 5-2 against the spread in the last seven meetings between these two teams while the Packers are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games played in January. They’re also 4-1 against the number in their last five home games, have cashed in seven of the last nine playoff games and are 5-1 at the betting window in their last six home playoff games. GB -3.5
The over is 18-6 in the Bucs’ last 24 conference games, is 25-10 in their last 35 road games and is 22-10 in their last 32 games overall. The over is also 6-0 in the Packers’ last six playoff games, is 8-3 in their last 11 playoff games when favored and is 7-3 in their last 10 playoff home games. OV 52
Conference Championships
Tampa Bay (13-5) @ Green Bay (14-3)
— Buccaneers are on road for 3rd week in row, 5th time in six weeks.
— Tom Brady has a 32-11 career record in playoff games.
— Buccaneers won last six games overall, scoring 34.8 ppg.
— Last six games, Bucs converted 53-1125 third down plays (47.3%).
— Tampa Bay is 13-0 when it scores 25+ points, 0-5 when it does not.
— Over is 5-2 in their last seven road games.
— Last seven years, #1 seeds are 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS in this round.
— Green Bay won seven in row, nine of last ten games overall.
— Packers scored 33.1 ppg in their last eight games,
— Rodgers is 1-3 in NFC title games, but all those games were on road.
— Last three Green Bay games went over the total.
— In their three losses this year, Packers gave up 38-28-34 points.
— Packers lost 38-10 in Tampa in Week 6; GB averaged 2.7 yards/pass attempt.
— Green Bay won three of last four series games.
— Tampa Bay lost last two visits here, 35-26/26-20
— Brady split two visits here, winning 35-0 in ’06, losing 26-21 in ’14.
Long Sheet
Sunday, January 24
TAMPA BAY (13 - 5) at GREEN BAY (14 - 3) - 1/24/2021, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 123-88 ATS (+26.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 208-150 ATS (+43.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 79-51 ATS (+22.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO (15 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (15 - 2) - 1/24/2021, 6:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
BUFFALO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Buffalo (15-3) @ Kansas City (15-2)
— Bills won 10 of its last 11 games, covered nine of last ten.
— Buffalo outscored last eight opponents 169-80 in first half.
— Bills won last three road games, scored 37.5 ppg in last four.
— Buffalo is 4-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
— Over is 6-3-2 in their last 11 games.
— Buffalo is trying to go to Super Bowl for first time since 1993.
— Mahomes hasn’t officially been cleared, but is expected to play here.
— Chiefs won 11 of last 12 games, but are 0-8-1 ATS in last nine games.
— Chiefs are 9-8 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite, 3-6 TY.
— Last nine games, Kansas City allowed 25.2 ppg
— Last time Chiefs covered was November 1st against the Jets.
— Before winning Super Bowl LY, Chiefs had lost 12 of previous 14 playoff games; now they’ve won four in a row.
— Chiefs won three of last four series games; last meeting was 2017.
— Bills won four of their last six visits to Arrowhead.
311TAMPA BAY -312 GREEN BAY
GREEN BAY is 41-15 ATS (24.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
313BUFFALO -314 KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season in the current season.
Established in 1995,
Great stuff.
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