*** NFL Championship Weekend ***

I'm a Pats homer myself, but I don't let it effect my thoughts as I usually bet against them or lay off if I'm leaning their side. Point being, you and I know this team pretty well and everyone wants to dumb the handicapping of this game down. "Mahomes > Brady, Hill > Edelman, Kelce > Gronk, KC DL > NFL" Like come on you simple fcks. Let's rip all this nonsense apart.

Let's talk about the Pats first. You nailed it on the head in the entire write up, the road struggles are largely over rated. The season as a whole needs to be dissected into 4 parts, not sure why people look at the final number over the entire season and make that their argument. No team is the same week 1-17 and numbers can be skewed. The first 4 games, win or lose, doesn't even count. The offense and defense was finding themselves with no Edelman for 4 games, defenses doubling Gronk, and Jeremy Hill & Rex Burkhead as their main running backs with Sony only getting started earlier than anticipated because of injuries. The Jacksonville game on the road was their Super Bowl and playing back to back road games in Detroit against the guy who knew how to attack the defense were obviously bad spots. 

So NE identifies that the initial WR depth they went into training camp with didn't pan out the way they expected it and need to add some talent and they trade for Gordon. Developing a WR in NE's system has been their biggest flaw over Belichick's entire tenure, and even when they acquire talent and give them an entire offseason to get familiar, the success is few and far between. Last year Cooks had 65/1082/7, a pretty decent season, but local radio, beat writers, and even team officials have said it wasn't a great fit. So Gordon has limited time to get acclimated to the playbook and catch onto the offense but they essentially force fed him in games to get practice reps with targets of 2, 4, 9, 7, 6, 9, 12, 5, 3, & 9. In a short period of time caught on faster than any WR NE ever brought in.

And then Gordon gets suspended... The Pats quietly knew this was coming, there were reports of him being late and was going to be disciplined for it by not starting against Buffalo on Monday and not only did he start, but caught 4 passes. Later reports come out they had a tail on Gordon during the bye week that he eluded. The writing on the wall was there and they were trying to acquire a WR at the trade deadline. They offered a 3rd round pick for Golden Tate but the Lions felt the Eagles pick would be better. This was an offense that all season long was in transition, a team with distractions tied around the time of their loses. The offense had looked awful on the road up until the Miami game and they had no problems putting up numbers offensively, defensively I have no idea what happened, but that's exactly what happens to NE in MIA every year. But there's 2 games left and they have their health and identity. They can scheme around their lack of stars and keep you off balanced.

Now Brian Flores isn't officially the DC, but he technically is, and the defense needed time to adjust and better as the season went on as they integrate more into their play calls. I think in week 6 in their matchup with KC they started to use the 1 down DL with 7 other players, a mix of LBs and DBs, hovering all over the LOS. And they used it more against the Vikings and Steelers, holding the 2 best WR duos to a COMBINED 18/166/2. Also let's keep in mind Gilmore graded as the #1 CB in the NFL this season, opposite him, #17 CB Jason McCourty, who most season was in the top 10. What most people don't realize is, while we were wondering who and how good our CB2 would be, the emergence of our nickel CB has quickly become one of the best. JC had 2 games where he played 30%+ of the snaps from weeks 3-11, and hasn't played less than 79.2% of the snaps from weeks 12-16. 

Read this link for an idea of what I'm talking about. 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-the-patriots-secondary-has-what-it-takes-to-carry-the-team-through-the-playoffs

Let's dispel this notion of "Historically the Pats are terrible on the road in the playoffs." Small sample size of 7 games, the last 3 from 2006, 2013, & 2015. I mean how much water does that even hold? A team plays most of their playoff games at home and it's held against them. You know the common denominator in those games? Peyton Manning and injuries for NE. In 2006, the Colts had an amazing offense and the Pats were up 21-6 at halftime before pissing it away, a team with talent as Reche Caldwell, Jabar Gaffney, and a retiring Troy Brown. 2013 the Broncos with Manning broke records offensively and 2015 the defense was rated as one of the best all time. Meanwhile go look at the IR for the Pats in both of those years. 

I'm not understanding tchamps point about the Pats D in noisest and toughest stadium to play in when the crowd is a lot more quiet when they're on defense and louder when they're on offense. We've faced tougher defensive lines then this while not as healthy as this. Never hear about Watt and Clowney or Bosa and Engram when we play them. NE will run on that defense and the ball will be coming out so fast it'll neutralize that DL. 

This game is gonna be a tough close game and both teams wanna get out in front and play their game, that will be the key. Kelce is great but he's soft and the Pats can rough him up with chips and tight coverage and keep 2 guys on Hill. They're gonna make Williams and Watkins beat them and people can't see the KC offense isn't the same without Hunt no matter how well Williams has stepped up, Hunt killed NE in both games this year and last. Can't keep comparing this matchup from the previous one because they're both different teams. 

Let's also remember, the better team doesn't always win. Rams were better in 01, Pats were better in 07 & 2012 and so many other instances. This team is healthy, well rested, and lazer focus. Keep the 3, I'm riding 7u on the ML, Pats pull it off 27-26.

Edgewood, the best defense is a really, really, really good offense.  The Pats are not a top 5 offense to being with.   They were extremely lucky last game in Foxboro, I don't even mean lucky to win, I mean lucky to not get blown out.  

KC defense isn't good but they are good at pressuring QBs.  That is all a really, really, really good offense needs.  It's the difference it needs to outscore the opponent.

All the defense has to do is force 3 or more punts and game over, blown out.   That is going to be easy to do because unlike the first half of the first game the Chiefs won't be settling for FGs early.  So when Brady is down 10-0, 13-0, 20-7.  That is when the elite pass rush will get to him and make things very messy for that offense.  That is literally all they have to bring to the table in order for the Chiefs to win, cover and win the SB.  They have done at least that all season long.  There is zero reason to expect any different tomorrow.

To reiterate, Pats have zero shot tomorrow. Sorry.

Ohh and the Chiefs have the best special teams unit in the league.  Well after week 16 the 2nd best.  Still that will be a crucial advantage here that no one ever brings up.

So, let's see here:

Every phase of the Offense -> ELITE

Pass Rush (Interior + Edge) -> ELITE

Special Teams -> ELITE

Homefield Advantage (Noise, difficulty) -> ELITE

You claim the Pats are underdogs, bla bla bla.  Yet the Chiefs have been all year underrated and disrespected.  They are the true best team in the league and yet the Colts were only given 1.5-2 more points than the Pats last week!

Believe me, that pathetic "they don't believe us or respect us...." spiel from Brady isn't fooling anyone in KC.  All season long the media and everyone else outside of Kansas had not jumped on one of the best-constructed teams of all time.