*** NFL Championship Weekend ***

New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs

Let me put this ‘Patriots are a bad road team’ notion to bed because it keeps coming up and it couldn’t be further from the truth. The Pats were 8-0 at home this year, yet just 3-5 on the road. But that 3-5 road record this season was extremely predictable. Several of those road losses were early in the season but all 5 of them took place during a season that the Pats had to endure more changes than any season they’ve had in a while. This team lost their defensive coordinator of 6 years to the Lions prior to the start of the season. They integrated Edelman back into the offense off his torn ACL, while also bringing in a new #1 receiver in Josh Gordon, only to see him leave the team later in the year. Gronkowski was almost traded before the season and then threatened to retire, and has been a no-show in the passing game all season. They brought in Sony Michel to lead the run game. Lots of changes the Pats offense had to go through this year with Edelman, Gordon, and changing the offense to stray away from Gronk. All while promoting a new defensive coordinator to call the plays on defense. This team has had a lot of moving parts for a majority of this season.

I faded the Pats in Jacksonville, in Detroit, and in Tennessee this season as again those were predictable struggle games for them. This one is not. This Patriots team has gone through more changes and distractions this year than they’ve had to in a long time, and is one of the reasons I faded them on the road throughout the season. As I said earlier though – this will be an entirely re-focused team late in the year and heading into the playoffs.

‘The Pats are a different team on the road’ – this statement is nonsense. What was the Patriots road record prior to this season? 14-1 on the road over the past 2 years prior to this season. ‘The Pats have been awful on the road in the postseason over the years’ – again nonsense. The sample size on this is 2 games over the past decade. Two games, the last of which was against the #1 ranked defense in the league that year, in which it came down to a 2 point conversion to win the game.

I like the Patriots more this game given they are on the road than I would if they were at home. This will be the first time in a long-time in the playoffs that Brady and Belichick are the hunter instead of the hunted. You can already tell what the mantra is in their locker room after Brady came out and said they hear everyone saying they suck and are finished and can’t win games. They are true underdogs this time around in these playoffs, and Brady is 15-6 ATS as an underdog over the past decade, covering those games by an average of 8.43 points. Even better, 3 of those 6 ATS losses were by exactly 1 point, meaning he’s a few plays away from being 18-3 ATS as an underdog over the past decade. And these were mostly games as an underdog facing elite defenses.

The Chiefs have the worst ranked rush defense in the league, and are the most penalized team in the NFL. While this is the healthiest the Patriots have been in the postseason in years. Good luck. I love this pick, and I’m upgrading them to 5x despite the futures in play.

1. Pats +3 -105 (5x) 
2. Rams +3.5 -105 (3x) 
3. Pats +9.5 / Rams +10.5 -120 (1.5x) 

Respect you LC but sadly it seems your futures bets will ultimately cloud your vision.  

Pats won't cover and when the Rams make it to the Superbowl, you will probably bet against the Chiefs once again.  Sadly LC you missed tons of spots to bet the Chiefs this season.  Chiefs will win Superbowl.

There have been signs all season long that this year is for the Chiefs. 

Don't care about history/trends, Beli/Brady bla bla bla.  None of that applies in regards to outliers,  The Chiefs this season are an outlier, same as the Broncos in 2013 or Pats in 2007.  Seasons like these are unicorns and only come around every now and then.  

I mean the Chiefs QB will become the league MVP and Superbowl MVP, all in his first season starting.   It will easily be the greatest start to a QBs career ever by far.

Unlike the Pats, the Chiefs are battle tested.  Same as the Chargers were and Broncos were as well.  The Chargers just couldn't overcome the travelling and fatigue.  Not to mention a horribly idiotic defensive game plan against the GOAT.  If any team had a shot at stopping KC it was the Chargers.  That ship has sailed.

BOL but Pats have zero chance of covering.   

Beautiful write up! Makes my lean even stronger, but I know I will find a better spot live. 

LC, could you give me please a very short summary of why you like the Rams? Please! Ive seen several guys pick them, but have not yet seen a decent argument other than "the Saints are overrated"

A.  Chiefs have played the toughest schedule of all the playoff teams back before the wildcard started.

B. Chiefs offense and elite pass rush have never been stopped, not once.  Even in their losses.  Meanwhile, the Pats and every other team in the league has looked like garbage at least once.  (Saints Offense vs Cowboys, Rams offense vs Bears, Pats offense vs Lions, Pats offense vs Titans, Pats offense vs Steelers, Pats defense vs Jaguars)

C. Mahomes won't have any early game jitters as he had in the last matchup in Foxboro.  That game could have easily been a Chiefs blowout.

So to think the Pats defense in the noisiest and arguably toughest stadiums to play in will stop an offense that has never been stopped once so far or a pass rush that took on the best OL group last week and dominated, well they have zero shot at either of those two feats.

So now you are left with only one scenario that the Pats have of covering this game.  That is, keeping up in a shootout, on the road in the noisest, hostile stadium there is.  Your strength (rushing) will be abandoned when they are down early.   

That whole "we're just going to run the ball and keep Mahomes on the bench....." gameplan was uttered by every single DC every week and it has never worked once single time.  And trust me the Ravens had the perfect personnel to pull it off and they still failed.  Pats have zero chance of playing keep away.  

The Patriots got away with murder in the previous meeting with the Chiefs. There were many key no calls and calls that went in their favor. The Refs WILL throw the flag this time if they hold Kelce on a key play. I can write a book about how biased the calls and no calls were that game. 

Pats have some pretty ugly Yards per play numbers compared to the rest of the teams left.. but I guess this can be ignored because they obviously defy stats.

How is Belichick going to take away Hill and Kelce while containing Mahomes.... Yea he is the all time greatest defensive mind, but he can't pull a rabbit out of a hat. The Patriots defensive personnel are simply not talented enough to stop a team like Kansas City. 

***Justin Houston is in full form now and healthy, which he wasn't in their previous meeting. This is perhaps my biggest comfort being on the Chiefs side. Brady lost three superbowls to teams with good pass rushers. KC has the most sacks in the NFL. Hit 41 year old Brady hard in the freezing temperatures and you are going to make him hurt very very bad.... He will definitely be off his game if there are some early sacks.

Berry is also back.. but I think people are overvaluing what he can do. He is out of shape and should not be 100% in form. I wouldn't mind if he didn't even play. 

Michel and White should cause problems.. but they cannot even come close to winning with them alone. The KC defense will not be as porous as in the previous meeting. 


All this being said.. I do expect Belichick to empty his entire arsenal of trick plays and exploitations of current NFL rules.. (like he did against the Ravens in their 2015 playoff meeting) This could make a touchdown or more difference in the game.

Shit. Maybe I should have taken the Pats lol.

Great stuff LC and a great season.

Great reasoning. 

Devil's advocate Pats are 1-4 ATS on grass.  You look at the games on grass:

20 points at Jacksonville, gave up 31

38 at Chicago, gave up 31

10 at Tennessee, gave up 34

33 at Dolphins, gave up 34

10 at Steelers, gave up 17

Meaning, their general history this year on grass is they are getting killed on defense (other than the Pittsburgh game) not exactly outperforming on offense.  They gave up 31, 34, and 34 to Jacksonville, Tennessee, and the Dolphins, not exactly offensive juggernauts.

KC has a heated field, and the temperature will be in the 20s.  So we'll get about what the Colts got, and the Colts couldn't move the ball.

Anyways, just playing devil's advocate, great stuff and thanks.   I haven't put anything or made a decision on the games yet.

Mate, Berry is the QB/DC of that defense.  He is extremely underrated.  The Chiefs secondary is complete ass and their linebackers are mediocre.  Berry is the general on that squad.  Forget his physical talent, he is Peyton Manning on the defense.  Presnap he will make sure everyone is positioned correctly, postsnap he will be on the right side of the rushing attack of the Pats.  He is still a good tackler and understands correct angles to take on guys in space.  

If you want to see a microcosm of the Defense with Berry in and with Berry out. Rewatch the last Chargers game where they were held to 7 in the first half w/ Berry in and then came back down 14 in the 4th w/Berry out.

Bob Sutton is a moron of a DC.  He is lucky he has Chris Jones, Houston and Ford to make up for his crappy playcalling.  With Berry on the back side, Fuller, and Ward, this secondary is instantly better than what the Pats faced last game.

Also, Ron Parker got as a result of LDT being active.  Parker was ass in the secondary.  Addition by subtraction.

Nice write up... couldn‘t agree more.. I love that kc fans want it so bad that they miss facts.. hunt accounted for 180 plus yards... gone.. and they still lost..yet no chance to cover.. pats have a better run game the real number 1 receiver back...but they have unicorns and Andy Reid... get the fachoutta here in taking them for the str8 up win...

Yup, I'm sure you thought the same last week with the Colts and their superior run game, and number 1 OL.....but but this week will be different......Pats will keep Chiefs offense on the bench by running the ball........

Maybe you didn't catch the last game but Chiefs could have easily blown the Pats out.  They were down 24-9.  They moved the ball up and down the field and settled for FGs because Mahomes was jittery.  That was the biggest game for young Mahomes under the brightest of lights.  

This time it will be pure carnage.  Pat have zero shot here.  Will they lose by 12+?  Probably not because Brady but they won't lose under 7.

Yup, I didn't have the words for it and you put it perfectly.  He is the Ray Lewis of that defense.  Even when he's on the sidelines in joggers the team needs him and looks to him for leadership.  On the field, he is the coach.

And you're correct he did fck up a few times.  Once vs the Chargers, I remember he took a bad angle and let I believe Keenan Allen get open.  Those things happen regardless.  But the Ray Lewis effect he brings with him is giant especially at home with that crowd on their side.

Tremendous respect for all your plays LC ...but I'm strongly on the opposite side on this one. I like Mahomes > Brady, Kelce > Gronk, Hill > any Pats WR, KC pass rushers and home field. 

But then again, you have the mad genius on your side and that is my one and only concern in being on KC.

 we are on the same page. I wish you bet point totals to see if I lined up with you there too, guess I'll have to wait and see what badlands thinks there.