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Posts: 202

Teapot_Dome

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2018

Posts: 124

Posted: Jan. 19, 2019 - 1:17 AM ET #26

Quote Originally Posted by gambleholic63:

Tremendous respect for all your plays LC ...but I'm strongly on the opposite side on this one. I like Mahomes > Brady, Kelce > Gronk, Hill > any Pats WR, KC pass rushers and home field. But then again, you have the mad genius on your side and that is my one and only concern in being on KC.

but the game isn't played gronk vs kelce, hill vs edelman, mahomes vs brady. the only thing i really like about KC's offense vs the patriots is hill's speed and mahome's mobility.. while I see the patriots carving apart KC's defense in all aspects of the game especially if Brady's knee has finally stopped limiting him.

Wizerguy

Legend

Joined: Jan, 2005

Posts: 38256

Posted: Jan. 19, 2019 - 1:21 AM ET #27

Quote Originally Posted by wegstar21:

Nice write up... couldn‘t agree more.. I love that kc fans want it so bad that they miss facts.. hunt accounted for 180 plus yards... gone.. and they still lost..yet no chance to cover.. pats have a better run game the real number 1 receiver back...but they have unicorns and Andy Reid... get the fachoutta here in taking them for the str8 up win...

Im not a fan, just a student of the game that doesn't miss facts..and if those are the only facts you have on this game..you're due for a rude awakening.

pure carnage..zero shot here.. 12+...mark it down

- The storms will come, the storms will pass -

Edgewoodzgimp13

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2012

Posts: 285

Posted: Jan. 19, 2019 - 1:38 AM ET #28

Lmao at this thread. I can't wait to see the responses late Sunday night into Monday if these fools come back and admit they fcked up not only backing KC but saying the Pats have no shot haha. LC, where you from bud?

coldsnap55

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2004

Posts: 9818

Posted: Jan. 19, 2019 - 1:43 AM ET #29

Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs Brady is 15-6 ATS as an underdog over the past decade, covering those games by an average of 8.43 points. Even better, 3 of those 6 ATS losses were by exactly 1 point, meaning he’s a few plays away from being 18-3 ATS as an underdog over the past decade.

Brady is also a few plays [Gifts] away from having only 2 superbowl wins and never considered the "GOAT"

Play #1 The Brady fumble against the Raiders. an_laugh TUCK RULE.

Play #2 Seattle not running with Marshawn Lynch on the 1 yard line with 25 seconds and a time out. confused

Play #3 Atlanta having the ball at the NE 23 up by 8 points with under 2 minutes left, and instead of running twice and kicking a field goal to go up 2 scores...they call 2 pass plays and get sacked, then penalized. We all know how that ended. an_beatup

Much respect....awesome year. peace_5 But I have to agree that your futures may have swayed you somewhat.

NinjaNight

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 5206

Posted: Jan. 19, 2019 - 1:45 AM ET #30

Quote Originally Posted by Edgewoodzgimp13:

The guy claiming Pats have no shot is the same one who claimed Colts had no shot when everyone here was saying Colts will cover. He was super on point with his analysis of that game.

On a quest to be the very best

Edgewoodzgimp13

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2012

Posts: 285

Posted: Jan. 19, 2019 - 1:56 AM ET #31

Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:

The guy claiming Pats have no shot is the same one who claimed Colts had no shot when everyone here was saying Colts will cover. He was super on point with his analysis of that game.

Well geez by that logic it's a fcking lock!! I mean, NE beat KC, but NE lost to JAX soooo JAX is better than KC right? Isn't that how it works?!

scrappyb

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2006

Posts: 1157

Posted: Jan. 19, 2019 - 2:02 AM ET #32

Not hedging my 7-1 NFC Champ preseason bet. I think the Saints are the far better team.

I took KC -3 -105.

I hate fading LC. I have a lot of respect.

GL, to everyone

NinjaNight

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 5206

Posted: Jan. 19, 2019 - 2:08 AM ET #33

Quote Originally Posted by Edgewoodzgimp13:

Well geez by that logic it's a fcking lock!! I mean, NE beat KC, but NE lost to JAX soooo JAX is better than KC right? Isn't that how it works?!

No just saying you're dismissing it way too mindlessly

On a quest to be the very best

jpot34

All-Star

Joined: Mar, 2010

Posts: 13197

Posted: Jan. 19, 2019 - 2:24 AM ET #34

Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:

Quote Originally Posted by Edgewoodzgimp13:

Well geez by that logic it's a fcking lock!! I mean, NE beat KC, but NE lost to JAX soooo JAX is better than KC right? Isn't that how it works?!

No just saying you're dismissing it way too mindlessly

The "Goat " has little chance of covering!!!!! paint_help

6K GOLD/$150 SILVER/ Find JESUS!

AFNfootballnerd

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2012

Posts: 4050

Posted: Jan. 19, 2019 - 2:59 AM ET #35

Ive done some research and Tom Brady is 10-0 in playoff games when facing a quarterback in their first year in the playoffs

statfreak

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 2241

Posted: Jan. 19, 2019 - 3:29 AM ET #36

Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:

Just be aware if you're following LC he's overestimating the Patriots to some extent but even moreso he's underestimating the Chiefs. He definitely is not giving enough credit to what KC is capable of and is overconfident on New England as a result.

really? Be aware? Calm down ninja, you act like you have all the truth this game... its a though game.

statfreak

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 2241

Posted: Jan. 19, 2019 - 3:33 AM ET #37

LC you did great all year but hey! better take advice from the guy who called chiefs over colts last week!... 1-0 BRO! Change your picks man you are understimating the chiefs and everyone else in this post are not under estimating the pats.. nop

AFNfootballnerd

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2012

Posts: 4050

Posted: Jan. 19, 2019 - 3:51 AM ET #38

Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

Ive done some research and Tom Brady is 10-0 in playoff games when facing a quarterback in their first year in the playoffs

Tom Brady is actually 9-0 when facing a quarterback in their first year of the playoffs....for some reason I counted Kordell Stewart

Jake Delhomme 2003

Ben Roethlisberger 2004

Byron Leftwich 2006

David Gerrard 2008

Phillip Rivers 2006

Tim Tebow 2011

Brock Osweiler 2016

Marcus Mariota 2017

Blake Bortles 2017

wegstar21

Rookie

Joined: Nov, 2015

Posts: 647

Posted: Jan. 19, 2019 - 3:53 AM ET #39

Lol.. change your picks now take it from a guy who knew a man who’s moms second cousins sister.. picked tails last week after she said NO CHANCE of heads covering.....

DonkeyPlays

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2018

Posts: 274

Posted: Jan. 19, 2019 - 5:32 AM ET #40

Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

Ive done some research and Tom Brady is 10-0 in playoff games when facing a quarterback in their first year in the playoffs

Tom Brady is actually 9-0 when facing a quarterback in their first year of the playoffs....for some reason I counted Kordell Stewart Jake Delhomme 2003Ben Roethlisberger 2004Byron Leftwich 2006David Gerrard 2008Phillip Rivers 2006Tim Tebow 2011Brock Osweiler 2016Marcus Mariota 2017Blake Bortles 2017

If you are judging by the strength of the QB when Brady played them... Jake Delhomme is sadly the top of the list.

None of these QBs are anywhere near Patrick Mahomes.. This is the strongest offensive team the Patriots have faced since the Rams... and the Patriots defensive roster looked a hell of a lot prettier than it does now.

I see many similarities to the 2013-14 AFC Championship game...

Broncos were 13-3. Chiefs were 13-3. Peyton Manning was MVP(54TD). Mahomes will be MVP(50TD). Both had/have prolific offenses. Patriots were/are road dogs in the AFC Championship game.

Pats traveled to Mile High and lost that game 26-16. I think that is the single most similar situation to the current one, and Brady and Bill lost it pretty handily.

wegstar21

Rookie

Joined: Nov, 2015

Posts: 647

Posted: Jan. 19, 2019 - 6:41 AM ET #41

Wow.. you just compared Denver to chiefs....missing the only important point...denvers defensive was one of the best of all time that year..it isn’t the nba all star game.. they will be playing defense.. chiefs have nothing on that Denver team that held them to 16.....

CrackAttack

Prospect

Joined: May, 2013

Posts: 354

Posted: Jan. 19, 2019 - 6:50 AM ET #42

Quote Originally Posted by statfreak:

Couldn't have said it much better Detlef! Regardless of what happens tomorrow, I'm pretty sure that nobody could care less about someone who had a spot on analysis to go 1-0 last week.

awfireman1

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2014

Posts: 83

Posted: Jan. 19, 2019 - 7:36 AM ET #43

Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:

Quote Originally Posted by Edgewoodzgimp13:

Lmao at this thread. I can't wait to see the responses late Sunday night into Monday if these fools come back and admit they fcked up not only backing KC but saying the Pats have no shot haha. LC, where you from bud?

The guy claiming Pats have no shot is the same one who claimed Colts had no shot when everyone here was saying Colts will cover. He was super on point with his analysis of that game.

Are you really comparing the Colts and Andrew Luck to Patriots and Tom Brady? Andrew Luck is a fraud. That cant be said about Tom Brady, as he actually has a winning record in the Playoffs/SB: Greatest of all time. This is a completely different game, playing against a completely different team. Saying he was correct last week has no bearing on the outcome and prediction for this week. Pats have the personnel to keep this sucker very close and possibly win. It may come down to who has the ball last.

dyamarik

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2002

Posts: 12337

Posted: Jan. 19, 2019 - 8:10 AM ET #44

Quote Originally Posted by tchamps:

Respect you LC but sadly it seems your futures bets will ultimately cloud your vision. Pats won't cover and when the Rams make it to the Superbowl, you will probably bet against the Chiefs once again. Sadly LC you missed tons of spots to bet the Chiefs this season. Chiefs will win Superbowl. There have been signs all season long that this year is for the Chiefs. Don't care about history/trends, Beli/Brady bla bla bla. None of that applies in regards to outliers, The Chiefs this season are an outlier, same as the Broncos in 2013 or Pats in 2007. Seasons like these are unicorns and only come around every now and then. I mean the Chiefs QB will become the league MVP and Superbowl MVP, all in his first season starting. It will easily be the greatest start to a QBs career ever by far. Unlike the Pats, the Chiefs are battle tested. Same as the Chargers were and Broncos were as well. The Chargers just couldn't overcome the travelling and fatigue. Not to mention a horribly idiotic defensive game plan against the GOAT. If any team had a shot at stopping KC it was the Chargers. That ship has sailed. BOL but Pats have zero chance of covering.

I have been following this "outlier and unicorn" system all season long, and I wish to learn more. I think this has the potential to make people a lot of money. You should go Tout and become one of those Vegas "Sharps". There will be bettors all across this great nation talking about the big names in Vegas: Billy Walters, Dr. Bob, "The Unicorn", and on and on and on...

an_roll_laugh

People who can afford to gamble don't need money, and those who need money can't afford to

dyamarik

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2002

Posts: 12337

Posted: Jan. 19, 2019 - 8:11 AM ET #45

Good Luck with your picks LC. Whether I agree or not, your record speaks for itself, so I will keep my opinion to myself when I disagree. Something that most every other A$$ Hole on this site seems unable to do...

peace_5

People who can afford to gamble don't need money, and those who need money can't afford to

Area51

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 3129

Posted: Jan. 19, 2019 - 9:18 AM ET #46

BOL LC

nick779

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2018

Posts: 100

Posted: Jan. 19, 2019 - 9:20 AM ET #47

Any notes on the rams vs saints?

Cooler999

Hall of Fame

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 22150

Posted: Jan. 19, 2019 - 9:47 AM ET #48

Quote Originally Posted by Teapot_Dome:

peace_5 we are on the same page. I wish you bet point totals to see if I lined up with you there too, guess I'll have to wait and see what badlands thinks there.

Achilles1629

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 12504

Posted: Jan. 19, 2019 - 10:12 AM ET #49

Quote Originally Posted by tchamps:

Berry is also back.. but I think people are overvaluing what he can do. He is out of shape and should not be 100% in form. I wouldn't mind if he didn't even play.

Mate, Berry is the QB/DC of that defense. He is extremely underrated. The Chiefs secondary is complete behind and their linebackers are mediocre. Berry is the general on that squad. Forget his physical talent, he is Peyton Manning on the defense. Presnap he will make sure everyone is positioned correctly, postsnap he will be on the right side of the rushing attack of the Pats. He is still a good tackler and understands correct angles to take on guys in space.

If you want to see a microcosm of the Defense with Berry in and with Berry out. Rewatch the last Chargers game where they were held to 7 in the first half w/ Berry in and then came back down 14 in the 4th w/Berry out.

Bob Sutton is a moron of a DC. He is lucky he has Chris Jones, Houston and Ford to make up for his crappy playcalling. With Berry on the back side, Fuller, and Ward, this secondary is instantly better than what the Pats faced last game.

Also, Ron Parker got as a result of LDT being active. Parker was behind in the secondary. Addition by subtraction.

You pick ONE winner, ONE......and we have to hear you now. First, start your own thread. Second, LC is proven over the course of the ENTIRE season. You? ONE win......Question: can you tell me ONE good thing the Patriots have going for them this Sunday? If you say you don’t have ONE, the conversation is done. Go ahead.....make sure you indent though after each paragraph. Thanks.

NinjaNight

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 5206

Posted: Jan. 19, 2019 - 10:22 AM ET #50

Quote Originally Posted by Unclebenelli:

just understand the road losses this year are not Being evaluated correctly. I understand its hard to believe, but that’s where the gap is. LC is telling you the same thing. This is why we here people say the NFL is fixed. It’s because they don’t understand scheduling. After the fact so many are quick to discount. Example last week, still no one has balls to answer question. Colts lossed because they had just played back to back in division games , on the road, in a playoff scenario. Find me the last team that played division games on the road, back to back. ???

listen to understand, not to respond.

I absolutely understand that, but again they had all year to fix their team problems which is what he claimed was the reason for the road issues.

In weeks 14 & 15 they had a lot of time by then to fix those issues and they still had bad losses to Miami & Steelers. You really can't discount this especially when it's paired with their playoff road issues in history. They simply ARE a worse team on the road no matter how you slice it. It's a significant disadvantage. They're a monster in New England.

I would be supporting Brady if this game was taking place in New England. Here it's a totally different story with KC being the better team (better team under these circumstances when NE is on the road and they're home) seeking revenge for a loss that shouldn't have even been a loss earlier in the year.

I did listen entirely to his writeup and thought about it before responding. My problem with it is he's downplaying it so much that it's like no issue at all to him. Look at it from any angle you want there's no way to say they aren't significantly worse on the road.

On a quest to be the very best

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