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NFL 2025 Season ATS Picks Thread

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Prospect
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Posted: #26

Thanks, Snowshoes.

 

-frisco

 
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Posted: #27

Thanks all, let’s keep it rolling.

GL

 
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Posted: #28

NFL Week 5 Adding:  Cheifs -3 (-118) Sports 411

GL

 
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Posted: #29

Snow,

In your 20 years of handicapping, what's your take on buying points? Generally, it's -EV isn't it?


Thanks,

frisco

 
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Posted: #30

an_cheers

I refuse to belong to any organization that will have me as a member.
 
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Posted: #31

@friscogiants

 Hey, good question.  It all depends on what your push probabilities are for each number and the value associated.  There are price constraints based on those probabilites that should be adhered to. Also, each point's assigned value will generally be greater with lower totals.  My model's script spits out a EV based on a number of factors including the asbolute difference between my models line and the actual line and the specific key numbers we are rolling on or off of.  I have absolutely no affiliation with them but Unabated.com has a "compare lines" tool that will do the work for you as well.  I think there are some free ones out there also - do a google search and you may find something.  Hope that helps.  

GL

 
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Posted: #32

I can already tell that you're a different handi-capping beast. Thank you for typing all that out. Good luck this season - I will definitely be tagging along side you but probably less disciplined than the only 3% per play bankroll limit. Ha!

-frisco

 
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Posted: #33

@friscogiants

 Anytime, best of luck!

 
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Posted: #34

NFL Week 4 Recap:  6-0 for +18.0% of bankroll

NFL YTD:  14-5 on full plays, 0-1 on props for +23.7% total

 
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Posted: #35

Snowshoes has a firm grip on capping the nfl

6-0 week ! an_clap

And hitting 73.68 % of his nfl plays so far. I  wait for the cold weather & snowy condition type of games where you will be even more comfortable 


an_worship

 

 
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Posted: #36

@WedgieHunters

 lol good one 

 
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Posted: #37

an_clap

 
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Posted: #38

NFL Week 5 Adding: Minnesota/Cleveland Under 36.5 (-107) (Sports 411)

GL

 
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Posted: #39

NFL week 5 Adding:  Vikings -3 (-123) Bet 105

 
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Posted: #40

NFL week 5 Adding:  2-team 6-point teaser:  Rams -1 and Commanders +9 (-120) (Sports 411)

GL

 
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Posted: #41

NFL Week 5 Adding:  Bengals +10.5 (-113) Bet105

GL

 
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Posted: #42

ugh, wish you weren't on the Bengals.

 
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Posted: #43

NFL Week 6 Play:  Steelers -4 (-117) (sports 411)

GL

 
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Posted: #44

NFL Week 6 Adding:  Dolphins +6 (-112) (Sports 411)

GL

 
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Posted: #45

NFL Week 6 Added:  Cowboys -3 (-117) (Sports 411)

GL

 
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Posted: #46

NFL Week 6 Adding: Falcons +4.5 (-111) Bet105

 
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Posted: #47

NFL Week 5 Recap: 2-4 for -7.71%

NFL YTD:  16-9 on full plays, 0-1 on props for +15.99% total

 

 
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Posted: #48

NFL Week 6 Added Play:  Seahawks pk -108 (Bet105)

GL

 
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Posted: #49

NFL Week 6 Adding:  Chiefs -2 (-113) (Bet105)

GL

 
 
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Posted: #50

NFL Week 7 Play:  Giants +7 (-109) Sports411

GL

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