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NFL 2025 Season ATS Picks Thread

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Prospect
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Posted: #1

Spent the last 3 months working on an NFL ATS Prediction Model in R Studio  - lots of moving parts but the basics are that it's based on opponent-adjusted rolling stats + empirical-Bayes shrinkage + early-season market blend via XGBoost ensemble.  I've been handicapping the NFL for 20 years.  Plays all season will be posted here, best of luck to all.  I wager around half-Kelly so to keep things simple we'll wager (to win) 3% of bankroll per play.

NFL Week 1:  Ravens PK -110 (Bet105)

 
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Posted: #2

Bol and thank you for posting. peace_5

 
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Posted: #3

@Snowshoes

 NFL Week 1 Added Play:  3% Steelers -2.5 (-116) (BOL)

 
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NFL Week 1 Adding:  2 team 6 pt teaser:  Broncos -2.5 and Seahawks +7.5 (-120) (BM)  

 
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NFL Week 2 Play:  Chargers -3 (-120) BOL)

 
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Posted: #6

NFL Week 1: 1-2 for -3.78%

Week 2 Adding:  Bengals -3 (-119) (B105)

Good luck.

 
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NFL Week 2 Adding:  Commanders +3.5 -111 (Bet105)  

Good luck.

 
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NFL Week 2 Adding:  Falcons +4.5 (-108) (B105)

 
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Posted: #9

@Snowshoes

 i have chargers -3.5 in a parlay - more weapons - so lets go

 
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NFL Week 2 Monday Night Adding:  2 team 6 point teaser:  TB +8.5 and GB -1.5 (-120) (Sports411)

GL

 
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NFL Week 2 Recap: 3-1 for +5.67%

NFL YTD: 4-3 for +1.89%

Teaser pending (TB +8.5 and GB -1.5) -120

 
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NFL Week 3 Adding:  Thursday Night Player Prop: 1% De'Von Achane Over 39.5 Recieving Yards -114

GL

 
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NFL Week 3 Adding:

Chiefs -5.5 (-116) (Sports411)

Saints +7.5 (-115) (Sports 411)

2 team 6 point teaser:  Patriots +8 and Texans +7.5 (-120)

GL

 
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NFL Week 3 Adding:  Ravens/Lions Over 52.5 (-115) (BOL)

GL

 
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NFL Week 3 Adding:  Ravens/Lions Over 52.5 (-115) (BOL)

GL

 
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Week 3 Adding:  NY Jets +6.5 (-110) (Bet105)

 
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NFL Week 3 Recap:  4-2 on full plays, 0-1 on props for +3.81%

NFL YTD:  8-5 on full plays, 0-1 on props for +5.7%

 
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Posted: #18

NFL Week 4 Play:  Giants +6.5 -104 (Bet105)

 
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Posted: #19

NFL Week 4 Added Play:  PHI/TB Over 43.5 (-115) (BOL)

GL

 
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NFL Week 4 Adding:  Falcons -2.5 (-113) (Bet105)

GL

 
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NFL Week 4 Adding:  Saints +14.5 (-112) (Sports 411)

GL

 
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NFL Week 4 Adding:  2-team 6-point teaser:  Chiefs +8.5 and Bears +8 (-120)

GL

 
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NFL Week 4 MNF Adding:  Dolphins -2.5 (-111) BET105

GL

 
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Posted: #24

NFL Week 5 Play:  Patriots +8.5 (Sports411)

 
 
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Posted: #25

5-0 Sunday , awesome job , your model is looking super

an_worship

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