MNF - Jets / Chargers....

NFL Season Record +19.0 units

Jets +3.25 (3.5 units)

On the surface, this looks like good offense against good defense, and bad offense against bad defense.

But if you look deeper – this Chargers team has feasted on some really bad defenses, while really struggling against the good defenses they have played (Cowboys / Chiefs – 17 points each).  The Jets have a great defense….  #1 in the NFL in pressure rate (which accounts for hurries, knockdowns, and sacks), and have given up 21 points or less in 5 of their 7 games this season – even with an offense that is not keeping the ball for very long.

The Chargers do well when they can throw – they really cant run on anyone (especially the Jets) so their success depends on Herbert having time in the pocket.  Herbert is decidedly a more efficient passer when not hurried – and I think the Jets will be in his face all night.

But when you bet the Jets – you also get Zach Wilson.  But it seems like he has been limited in mistakes recently – mostly by playcalling and coaching – but he has zero interceptions in 4 of his last 5 and has been doing better by limiting his options.  The key to betting the Jets is that Wilson can completely blow a game by himself no matter what the rest of the team does – but I really see the Jets being able to run tonight which makes his importance less critical.

The Jets will have success on the ground – limited success in the air – and win outright tonight.  The Jets are quietly 4-3 and close to the top of the AFC East and I am sure bolstered by Rodgers seemingly quick recovery. 

Jets win outright 23-16

GL all

@vanzack

 Gl tonight van. Can’t join you on this one though. I need to start taking a little bit more basic approach to capping some of these games and the number one thing on the list will be to avoid betting on awful quarterbacks. 

Wilson falls into that category along with Mac Jones who has cost me a significant amount of money this season. Add Bryce young, Jordan Love, and a few others to the list. You may be on the right side hopefully Zach Wilson doesn’t ruin it for you. If not for him I would absolutely be on the Jets. Nice hit on Bengals last night GL 

I would be curious if you have made a list of these QBs that you would bet, and the QBs that you wouldnt bet - and went back and did the ATS record of games involving one of each.

Might be surprising.  Might not be.  But it would test your hypothesis and give you something to go on rather than just a guess.

Good luck Van.  

Jets D  BOL 

It makes me sick as a bills fan that the jets could actually win this division

@vanzack

 I do have a list. It does change. And my strategy is not as primitive as I may have made it sound. I won’t get into any personal recordkeeping on the forum, but I do keep track of every single bet I have made for the entire season.

there are multiple factors that go into using this approach. A perfect example would be the recent Tampa Bay versus Buffalo game. Although Baker Mayfield is not yet on my list of unbettable quarterbacks I do try to stay away. That particular game was a play on the number alone. To compare that game to tonight‘s game if the Jets were getting 10 1/2 points it would be a no-brainer if that makes any sense to you.

again, I won’t go into any personal recordkeeping, but I have lost every game that I have bet on the patriots this season. It’s hard to say that it’s completely because of Mac Jones but it’s hard to say that it isn’t. I have also done extremely well betting against the Carolina Panthers because of Bryce Young . So don’t take it as me saying bad quarterback, automatic no bet. It’s not quite that simple. 

anyway, good luck tonight. You’ve had much success betting on primetime games. 

@vanzack  

Thansk, GL

@vanzack

 Thanks VZ. Goodluck

I'm Tailing you vanzack jets +3.5 

I understand.  Any information you could share on your process would be of great interest to me.  I always learn something from every serious thing I read here.  Up to you.

Does the Jets offensive line give you any concern? I know they’ve had 2 guys out and now the center McGovern isn’t going to play. Also, a backup guard out. 

I’ve had horrible success betting on teams with 3 offensive line men out. So much I just pass on these games or bet the other side.

Any thoughts on the o-line being banged up?

@vanzack

 This is a brand new approach for me. I am going to attempt to make somewhat of a system out of it. I’m sure it will have its failures but I will be much happier saying to myself “glad I didn’t bet that game” as opposed to “how was I dumb enough to bet on Mac jones as a favorite…again”.

There will be variables of course. Like what if two awful QBs are playing each other? Like yesterdays Cleveland/Arizona game even though the browns were the pick of the day if you ask me.

It will eventually look something like this

Zach Wilson +6 or less = no bet

Zach Wilson -2 or more= no bet

This is just an example. I’ll let you know how it works out

@vanzack  

  Let's hit it 

I love the jets moneyline 

@vanzack

 Thanks bud!

Is the Jets offense and Wilson ever going to wake up?  

The Jets do win ugly and the Chargers often lose ugly.

The Chargers finally played a complete game last week and that concerns me.  

not readoing anything yet jets shut the prissy fekers doon...dont know about scoring tho..thinking low scorng but ffs this s the chargers..cardiac kds...find a way to score or to not score whlst lettng other tem gangrene score...

@Lucky Luciano

BOL vanzack

Always follow your plays an much obliged!

Nothing on the PLUS MONEY LINE and why?

Love the pick, but if youre final score is correct it would put me on mega tilt.... i got 2.5 units on jets by 1-6 +335