NBA 5/12: Celtics-Knicks: Defense Wins Playoff Games Which Means.....

YTD 15-6 +8.2 units

all plays 1* so far

(Playoffs 6-0  +6.0 units)

I'm now 71% on the season and perfect in the playoffs after winning easily with Indiana last night.  One more tonight in a game that looks like a clone of last night's play:

1* Knicks +6 1/2

Four things are key in NBA Playoff betting.  1.  Home court advantage is non-existent.  2.  The regular season doesn't matter; what matters is NOW.  3.  Motivation changes in a series and the team that needs to win the most usually plays the best.  4.  The team that plays the best defense almost always wins.

Which leads to tonight's play.  Simply watching the three games so far reveals that the Knicks are playing with extreme intensity and the Celtics are not.  Shooting stats usually tell the story of a game and a series.  The Knicks have shot between 40 and 43% all three games and the 3-point shooting has been just awful.  That usually means you're down 3-0.  In fact, NYK has been over 50% only once in the playoffs.  Yet, they're winning.  This can only be explained by intense defense.  New York hasn't given up over 50% the whole playoffs and the 48% Boston got in Game 3 was  the highest against the Knicks in the post-season.   My knock on Thibodeau teams is he burns them out so badly in the regular season they have no game to step up in the post-season.  This year is different.  A lousy defensive team all year is playing great defense now.  NBA champs almost never repeat which means they lose somewhere.   This series may be it for Boston.

Love your approach….

Limit the plays and bets made. Hard to have that type of discipline. 

bol

@Griswold1

 Is that bet 6+ is for full game or half?

you wrote 1/2.. where do you get your that line for half?!

+6 1/2 is the line I bet at BetMGM and the line I see most places.   It's for the full game.  I don't make halftime bets because I'm no good at it

The Knicks defense has been suspect all 3 games though...the C's just missed a shit ton of open shots in games 1 & 2.  Everyone is pointing out the fact that the C's just couldn't hit the OPEN shots.   They regressed back to the mean in game 3 and it was a blowout. We haven't even had a Tatum or Brown big game yet.  Celtics have had 20+ point leads in all 3 games.  Only way I see this staying close is if the C's go cold again.  Celtics defense on the other hand has been great.  1 of the best of these playoffs so far. Lowest points allowed, lowest made 3's allowed(only team under 10), 3rd in opponent FG %, 2nd in blocks.  It's NBA so anything could happen, but I think everything is pointing in the C's direction tonight. 

Good luck Griswold.  

The NBA forum is by far, the worst for ppl questioning lines. A quick search with show 5/6 places with 6.5, Caesars having it at 6. Just because your book might not have what someone post, doesn't mean it isn't so.

@Griswold1

 Bol today

@HipB23

 Celtics also have a defense and Knicks offense is turrible. 

Hmmmm

Celtics are also a better road team, than home team for what it's worth.

Tatum was a no show on offense in Game 1 and 2 and got his touch back in Game 3.  Same could be said for almost everyone else on the roster too.

G 

@Griswold1

If you’re interested in betting on the Celtics, why not just lay the 3 in the 1st half?  They've been up by 16, 9, and 25 at halftime of the first three games and they also covered the 1st half of both games in Orlando.

The likes of BetMGM and DraftKings won't let you lay -3 -110. Their line is -3.5 -105. That figures.

Oh, and the Knicks are 0-4 ATS in the 1st halves of their home playoff games.

It was +6.5 this morning everywhere 

@MrBator

 i noticed that trend too earlier today. but arent you scared they might reverse the trend?? 

The only thing that scares me is when I need an NBA player to make two free throws for me when there’s less than ten seconds left in a game. 

@MrBator

me too

GL  on your plays @Griswold1 

 #1 

So that’s what I did. I’m on the Celtics -3 -110 in the 1st half.

All that explanation just for a loser pick. Guess you did not factor in Boston's three point shooting lol.

Celtics are defending champions. You fell for the trap just because you saw Pacers blowout the Cavs yesterday.

Sorry ignore my post that was for another forum.

every hater here will cry

knicks win

@Griswold1

way to stick to your guns despite the fools Griswold