vanzack

116K

@garbagetime

17          River Plate                     114

18          Boca Juniors                  78

19          Fluminense                     77

20          Monterrey                       69

21          Inter Miami                     66

22          Pachuca                           56

23          Seattle Sounders FC           52

24          LAFC                               51

25          Al Ahly                            50

26          Al Ain                             46

27          Mamelodi Sundowns         35

28          Espérance de Tunis           20

29          Urawa Red Diamonds         20

30          Wydad Casablanca              17

31          Ulsan Hyundai                  15

32          Auckland City FC                5

Team     Transfermarkt Market Value (€ million)

1             Real Madrid                 1,330

2             Manchester City             1,180

3             Paris Saint-Germain        1,050

4             Chelsea                          972

5             Bayern Munich               856

6             Inter Milan                  664

7             Juventus                       623

8             Atlético Madrid               505

9             Borussia Dortmund       473

10          Benfica                         339

11          Porto                             303

12          Palmeiras                       228

13          Flamengo                     201

14          Botafogo                      160

15          Red Bull Salzburg            159

16          Al-Hilal                          153

FIFA Club World Cup - starts Monday June 14

I have been asked a lot about process for betting on these kinds of tournaments. Long post ahead...

I use a combination of modeling (fancy word for objective analysis) and tactical and matchup analysis (subjective). Objective analysis won't work alone in these kinds of tournaments - because objectively comparing teams from different continents that never play similar competition is close to impossible.

The subjective (tactical) analysis comes from my knowledge of the sport, and most importantly lineups that are announced about 1 hour before gametime. In most sports, predicting tactics and gameplan before the event is difficult. You can think that an NFL team should run because the opposing defense is terrible against the run - but until kickoff you really aren't sure. In soccer - the lineups are not only important to assess skill level on the pitch - but they are also the roadmap to the tactics. You know how a team will play based on how they lineup - at least at the beginning.

The interesting thing is that betting lines move on players in or out of lineups - but very little based on reading in to the implied tactics and strategy. I have found success taking advantage of slow moving lines when you can clearly see for example that a team is going to defend first and counterattack. Matchups play a clear role also. For instance - in the UCL final when it was confirmed that Bruno Mendes was lined up against Lamal - who was torching everyone this season on the wing - it was clear Lamal was going to have it tougher than most days. He was totally ineffective because Mendes didn't need any help and freed up the second man that usually needs to double team Lamal.

The objective analysis is nuanced - but soccer is a unique sport in that all players have an assigned value. Players are bought and sold - not traded - on a worldwide scale. So how do bookmakers (and you) come to a fair line on a matchup between teams from different continents? 

You are 80% of the way there if you simply use the teams cumulative squad value. http://Transfermarkt.com is a great place to start. In the attached pic - you can see the values - along with some of the opening day betting lines.  The values follow the betting lines pretty closely. So the books are at the same disadvantage we all are, and are mostly using squad value as a compass to set a line.  Throw in some other stats to the values like XG, shots, big chance conversion rates etc - and you are on your way to a good objective model. It is not rocket science.

So the challenge to us as handicappers is to use a combination of the above to beat lines that by nature should be softer than most league events like NFL, or MLB. This is what I attribute my historical success in these tournaments to - and why I see them as tremendous opportunities.

Happy to discuss.  GL.

DJ in the house!!

GL and great to see you

I will answer you the same way I answer the haters....

I do what I want.

Classic Buffer.

It is Don Juan season.

If you loser haters could only live my life for one day, you wouldn't be so spiteful.  It would open your eyes to a world of opportunities, good fortune, and happiness.  But you cant have that because you would rather troll online than learn a craft that can make you have unlimited time, money, and lifestyle that equal the worlds elite.

But you dont.  You dont want to get better.  You dont want to learn.  You live your lives as miserable asshats who troll online.  I live my life in the real world.  I am getting ready for a light end of soccer season and then a summer of travelling the world with my family on my yacht.  Enjoy the next time you want some time off and have to beg the boss for 1 of the 2 weeks you get a year.  In the end - it is only you holding you back.  Where were you guys last week?  Funny none of you came by to say hi in a winning week.

As Goose said above - I have been here 25 years.  Most of those winners.  This year was a loser.  Big deal.  I lost 36 units posted.  You see anyone else keeping season long records posting real lines all in to mature NFL markets?  You could count them on one hand.  But you decide to come after someone who has won 7 years in a row, last season for 80+ units, on a -36 unit season?  Please.

Variance is part of the deal.  This year, as skipster says - it was a regression to the mean.

But fear not....  The animal shelters still win no matter what!  I am heading a group building the biggest and most technoligically advanced animal shelter in the world as we speak.  Please remember to donate to your local animal shelters - they all need help - even if you hate me donate to these innocents who get ignored.

@TheGoldenGoose

Good to see you posting!

Exactly.

They are independent bets.  And priced independently.

BTW...

If you aren't on an exchange...

I am getting filled on Commanders +6 +103 and +264 ML for as much as I want.

I will be watching this gut system closely.

When you see "we" in a writeup....

Public, sharp, square....

I am just trying to predict the team with the most points - because they will win.

NFL Playoffs Record +7.5 units

*  Commanders +6 (3.5 units)
*  Bills +2 (2.5 units)

GL all.  Suck it haters.

I would be in on this for sure.

Wish I did.

I disagree with both of your statements.