@tweets50
You can’t compare the Bills game with the ravens just because both teams entered the playoffs on a hot streak. Believe it or not, the Colts were a more complete football team than Buffalo and that’s why that game was mostly dominated by Indy (they beat themselves). You can’t say the same about Tennessee. They are not more complete than Baltimore. Not even close.
I took the Ravens as well, but it's horrifying to me that in the first 16 posts of this thread everyone took the Ravens.
Do they not realize that Tennessee beat them last year? Do they not realize that Tennessee beat them this year again?
The Ravens have feasted on bad teams for the past month, and everyone thinks their "hot" all of a sudden.
Lamar Jackson has been a big disappointment this year, and the Ravens weaponry is so bad that they had to pull Dez Bryant out of retirement and actually play him.
The Ravens allowed Damien Harris to gash them for 121 yards in primetime against a QB that can't throw. It was obvious too, because Harris only plays early downs, so if it's first down you knew he was getting the ball. The Ravens couldn't stop it. What are they gonna do with "mutant" Derrick Henry?
Tennessee's defense can be abhorrent sometimes, they this team just finds ways to win. They only have one bad loss this season, and it was to Cincinnati, who arguably isn't a bad team when they had Joe Burrow, AJ Green, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd. Their other losses are to Pittsburgh, Indy, Cleveland, and Green Bay. Those are all playoff teams, and the loss was when Pittsburgh was playing really well.
Tannehill is just as dangerous as any QB in the league, and he's got weapons with A.J. Brown who everyone thinks is injured for some reason. A.J. Brown never practices on Wednesdays. He's been injured since week 1, yet he continues to play and have monster games. They don't call him "Baby T.O." for no reason. Plus Corey Davis is having a career year. Jonnu Smith is an athletic freak. And Derrick Henry, the NFL's leading rusher.
Who does Baltimore have? Lamar, "Hollywood" Brown who disappeared for 3/4 of the season, Mark Andrews, and Dez Bryant. And RBs that couldn't get on the field until Mark Ingram got hurt.
The only reason I'm playing Baltimore is because this line is whacky. Tennessee should be favored in this one. Not by much. Maybe 1.5-3, but the home team with that explosive offense that's beaten them two games in a row and playing at home should be giving points. But I guess the bookmakers are right, and people will take Baltimore at any price, even opening as a hook favorite on the road.
The Ravens have got to be one of the most overvalued teams in the league. Remember back in week 7 when Baltimore was actually favored by 4 against undefeated Pittsburgh? They were giving the hook in that game as well, and let Pittsburgh come back from a double digits lead in that game as well. That game cost me a 3 game parlay for big bucks that I haven't forgotten about.
You take the Ravens as big favorites when they're playing crappy teams. Those are the only spots to bet them. The Ravens have beaten nobody this year. They beat Cleveland twice, and they beat the Colts. That's it. They've got a running QB, which is nice in fantasy football sometimes, but most of this season he wasn't even in the top half of QBs in the league.
@KC_4_LIFE
I don't know about what you mean by complete team, Offensively run game control clock will be the Titans plan. Defensively contain Lamar. -I am not changing my side on this one. Went 3-0 on all dogs today. This is a crazy public play on Ravens backers. I am just piping in what my angle is-
Both teams playing for their season... If you think Ravens are "HOT" then bet them and being the more complete team. Then you are saying Tenn spanking Buffalo was a fluke and the loss to Tenn at Baltimore was a fluke. Teams that run the ball will cover games this post season. Buffalo should have lost today.
Either way, been on here a long time, won a lot of $ on NFL this year. Not bragging not putting records out there. I am just saying when the spot is an easy -3...Might not be as easy as you think. I may lose on this one because Ravens "are a more complete team"...I'll take the run first offense to keep this game within a FG. +3.5
I am confident based on $$$ sides this is why the line was set -3 to get more Ravens $$$ and its working. 78% total money as of now, not giving TENN any chance. If the $$$ side taper off before game-time and see how line move, I may reconsider. But as of now. NO chance teams such as INDY and Washington today both covered. Last possession drives to win or tie the game. We even had unknown QB start for Washingon... did it matter? probably not.
@tweets50
Baltimore is a very popular play on the covers board this weekend, but it's surprising for the reasons I stated in my post above. I typically fade the public, so it was a shocker to me that it was so popular. I mean you've got an offensive powerhouse playing at home against a team with limited weapons, who they have beaten two times in a row. No one here is trying to change your mind. It's just a discussion.
I'm a bit uneasy with my Baltimore pick at this point as well, but the fact that I even considered it means it's not a square play. And that's what people should try to avoid.
The Colts were also a very popular play this weekend. I was shocked that people would bet against a team rolling and on an 8 game cover streak, but it worked out. Could work out for Baltimore as well.
Im confused.. So why are you taking the Ravens then? You just wrote a book on why Tennessee is the play.
@KC_4_LIFE
I wouldn't call Baltimore a complete football team. They are limited offensively, but do have the better defense. I wouldn't call them shutdown though. They rank 10th in the NFL I believe. Washington had the #2 ranked defense, and look how Brady absolutely carved them up tonight with the #7 offense.
So yes, Baltimore has the better defense (by a lot), but Tennessee is tied for #2 ranked offense in the league. Baltimore is 19th.
The key for Baltimore is to not fall behind. But Tennessee is perfectly capable of playing a grind it out game running the ball. They can probably do it even better than Baltimore can.
You are reading the line completely wrong. It is not an easy -3.5 when the home team that has won both matchups is getting points against a QB that has not won a playoff game. The line is meant to attract Titans money, and its doing just that. 
I guess you skipped a chapter. I didn't mean that in a smartass kinda way.
"The only reason I'm playing Baltimore is because this line is whacky. Tennessee should be favored in this one. Not by much. Maybe 1.5-3, but the home team with that explosive offense that's beaten them two games in a row and playing at home should be giving points. But I guess the bookmakers are right, and people will take Baltimore at any price, even opening as a hook favorite on the road."
@slamspurs
I see your angle. Just sticking to my guns on this one. The money was so lopsided on Buffalo also. Not exactly always a square bettor or anti-public bettor, just finding the middle ground in all these games. Almost ALL these playoff games are one possession or last drive games to cover or no cover. I hope I am on the right side come 10am. Sorry if the response came in bold, I just kept typing. Not here to change anyone's sides, just explaining my angle.. although Colts were a popular play in the forum, the public hammered the money side. I hope you make money tomorrow...GL
@begginerboy
That's what I thought as well. However Between this thread and another forum that I frequent, we've got about 4 Tennessee backers, and about 21 Baltimore backers. If the books were trying to get people to take Tenn, they did a terrible job of it.
The "Hot Team" angle is used a lot, but the only examples of that happening are really the NY Giants super bowl teams that beat the Patriots. And those teams were more exceptions than norms. The Flacco Baltimore team could fall into that category I suppose, but I don't remember them being that "hot". I just did a quick search, and that 2012 Ravens wasn't hot, they actually limped into the playoffs losing 4 out of their last 5 games. They got hot in the playoffs, and got a miracle hail mary to beat Denver that year. That Baltimore team is kinda like the Pittsburgh of this year.
The "Hot Team" angle works better in College Basketball I think for the NCAA Tournament. The team that has to play every day just to claw their way into the tournament sometimes does pretty well. But again, those were probably outliers than norms. NY Giants = Uconn
There is as much or more Titan love as there was Colts love today. Not that different. By tomorrow you’ll see a bunch of Titan threads, if you haven’t already. Sometimes the sharps win and sometimes the public. Not every dog has its day.
Look at the first 16 posts of this thread and show me who the more popular pick is.
Heavy juice on Ravens though. They opened -3.5 and were there most of the week, but it's been -3, -120 for the past couple of days at least. I dunno why they won't just put it back to -3.5.
It's not just that people are betting the Ravens, it's that they LOVE the Ravens.
That's it for tonight for me. My bet is already in and I can't change it. Just hope for the best. IMO books are gonna clean up on Pittsburgh straight bets, ML parlays, and teasers. Probably make their whole weekend.
There's a chance the upset could be the Bears over the Saints though.
@tweets50
I believe you’ve had a good year and I’m certainly not trying to talk you off the Titans. I’ve been high on Baltimore all year and have to trust my feel as I too have had a good year. BOL today and the rest of the playoffs
Go Chiefs!
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